JTH's Account Talk

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How do you catch a runaway train - you don't. If you want in you have to buy higher like I did today and keep on buying...
 
Good insight as usual, I was wondering how the surging dollar was going to affect the market. SPY and IWM have had a little bit of a headwind, but it's affected EFA a lot more.

Thing I don't get was, isn't QE supposed to weaken the dollar? It's been looking strong lately. matter of fact it looks like it's starting to break out of its previous downtrend.
 
QE is screwing the Dollar and it will effect all of us, consider it a TAX!
 
sniper said:
Thing I don't get was, isn't QE supposed to weaken the dollar? It's been looking strong lately. matter of fact it looks like it's starting to break out of its previous downtrend.
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I know the dollar's value is based comparatively against a "basket" of world currencies, but maybe the yen is an important factor. Japan's new PM Abe has aggressively driven down the price of the yen over the last few weeks, by means similar to those used by the U.S. when we set out to weaken our dollar. And what's good for the goose apparently isn't good for the gander, as the U.S. and Germany have expressed dissatisfaction with Japan's policies. Just a thought.
 
sniper said:
Good insight as usual, I was wondering how the surging dollar was going to affect the market. SPY and IWM have had a little bit of a headwind, but it's affected EFA a lot more.

Thing I don't get was, isn't QE supposed to weaken the dollar? It's been looking strong lately. matter of fact it looks like it's starting to break out of its previous downtrend.
Click to expand...


I don't think of the dollar anymore, I've had to adapt my thinking more along the lines of what oil is doing and how the global supply/demand impact the dollar. At some point, the strength in the dollar will start to have a direct inverse effect on the US markets, but I don't think that right now the impact is significant. One of the best 2012 videos does a great illustration of this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8T9ICWOYCNQ
 
This is one of my USAA mutual fund holdings, I last trimmed on 2 January and since then have been unable to get it back in at a lower price. Of this position, I have 1/3 on the sidelines looking for a re-entry. Typically I'd trim off some more this week, problem is I'm already holding too much cash for these conditions. But if I trim some off and we pullback from here, I may be able to get back in with a larger position at an overall lower average price. Decisions....

View attachment 22312
 
JTH said:
Sorry my friend, I've neglected my usual TSP duties.

February is the weakest of the best 6 months, with the beginning of March being statistically strong. I'm looking for the first half to be flat-to-up with a pullback in the second half. Take note we have Witching on Friday Feb 15th followed by President's day on the 18th. This may prove to be a pivot point, traditionally to the downside. This is what the historical data tells us.
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The last time I followed my own advice and made an exit, the S-Fund took a 2.96% lead on me. As it may, I see some folks are considering making an entry into the markets this week. My personal thoughts are that based on timing/statistics/indicators we should top out this week. Ideally I'd like to make an exit on Friday, but each day is a chapter to a story and as the story unfolds, so shall my views on when to make the exit. If Monday is a strong up day, (based on my current 1.21% from my last entry) I may take the money and run.
 
JTH, I am so glad you are back to posting more often. I really enjoy your insights as to what may be happening in the market. I think many feel confortable using you as part of their decision process.
 
Bquat said:
JTH, I am so glad you are back to posting more often. I really enjoy your insights as to what may be happening in the market. I think many feel confortable using you as part of their decision process.
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Thank you my friend, your kind words are much appreciated. Between work, school, and my pursuit of a CISSP in the near future, I am happy to find the time to post here, it's about the only thing that relaxes me. :D
 
JTH said:
Thank you my friend, your kind words are much appreciated. Between work, school, and my pursuit of a CISSP in the near future, I am happy to find the time to post here, it's about the only thing that relaxes me. :D
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Ouch, that is a tough one... Good luck!!
 
I'll be home most of the day, there's nothing I enjoy more than watching the markets in real time :)
 
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