Sorry my friend, I've neglected my usual TSP duties.
February is the weakest of the best 6 months, with the beginning of March being statistically strong. I'm looking for the first half to be flat-to-up with a pullback in the second half. Take note we have Witching on Friday Feb 15th followed by President's day on the 18th. This may prove to be a pivot point, traditionaly to the downside. This is what the historical data tells us.
As to what I think, I think it's time to play the up/down trading range game. Get out on the right day you're a hero, the wrong one you're a zero. In a BULL market it's smarter to be invested, especially starting out a new month (and March.) Anyone who attempts to time these conditions is more likely to be wrong than right. The intermediate charts cry for a pullback, as do the indicators, but of the last 20+ years I've analyzed, I've not seen such conditions, so I have no data for comparison. Look to the futures (2-4am) they have a personality that speaks to the daily markets (what the markets want to do, but not necessarily what they will do), also look at the last 30 minutes of trading, they often speak to the next days action when we are trending.
All-in-all February is a tricky month to play, the best advice I have is to not let this month's view bleed into your March outlook, this is what happened to many during the March 9th 2009 666.79 bottom (the bottom of the bear market that kept many on the sidelines for far too long.)
