JTH's Account Talk

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I've been waiting for the Transportation Index to breakout of it's Ascending Triangle, we need to pop out of that third white circle. The apparent lack of conviction is obvious.

View attachment 16721
 
It will be a break-even year for the S&P500, with a flat year for Buy & Holders. Yet some folks on the tracker did very well for themselves and although I'm not one of them, I am happy it is proven that managing your own money can be rewarding. As always there are many things I've learned and applied, some better than others. My TSP goals for 2012 are to catch up to 2011's beginning balance, and make 12% plus what I lost in 2011.
 
JTH said:
It will be a break-even year for the S&P500, with a flat year for Buy & Holders. Yet some folks on the tracker did very well for themselves and although I'm not one of them, I am happy it is proven that managing your own money can be rewarding. As always there are many things I've learned and applied, some better than others. My TSP goals for 2012 are to catch up to 2011's beginning balance, and make 12% plus what I lost in 2011.
Click to expand...
I agree with you and am glad we are allowed to manage our own money, but beware of what you say the tracker proves. I think the FRTIB would argue that today's AT shows 52% of us are negative for the year and a wopping 70% are below the G Fund. They would say this proves we should not be allowed to manage our own money and they have to do it for us. It could happen. Someone has to protect Wildwoman from losing her shirt.
 
In a first glance eye test that makes sense but collectively the TSP funds as a whole are -11.75. Not very good considering 2011 was not all that bad.
Not a single Life Cycle fund (Where they would like you to park your money permanently) is positive for the year. Except L income which is not designed for long term investment. Whats that say for those charged with managing the funds.
A lot of folks will be rethinking the F fund.
 
Wow!
That's a real eye opener. It really is amazing that the professionals managing these funds, and so many other mutual funds, can't do better..."Best and the brightest" right? :nuts:
In light of that reality it's not surprising so many people trying to manage their own money also come up short. Investing takes time and patience, things which are frequently in short supply.

Glad so many members here, everyday gov't employees, are beating the averages!
 
Re: have you found your MOJO?

I don't follow the L funds but as of yesterdays closing numbers the only funds not positive for the year is the S and I funds.

Funds.....01/01/11..........12/28/11

"G".........$13.4882..........$13.8173.....$0.33
"F".........$14.2295..........$15.3248.....$1.03
"C".........$15.2084..........$15.4303.....$0.41
"S".........$21.2445..........$20.3476.....$0.90
"I"..........$20.0089..........$17.3217.....$2.69


 
Then there's John Paulson. I heard on CNBC that he is down 50% this year. And, that's with a ton of money. I only hope Wildwoman's performance isn't representing real money because it would be very painful. I've been there and once you're so far behind you chase bad money and easily end up out of phase with the market swings.

Based on the past 9 months and what's going on in Europe I believe the market will continue the high volitility rollercoaster pattern well into 2012, and the strategies that worked this year will work again. I will try a strategy in 2012 of buying in on lousy market days and moving to safety soon after if I get a profit, like what Corepuncher did this year. I plan to be in the market only about 10-20% of the time. We'll see.
 
Re: have you found your MOJO?

nasa1974 said:
I don't follow the L funds but as of yesterdays closing numbers the only funds not positive for the year is the S and I funds.
Click to expand...

I should have clarified but I specifically target the L funds because that is where the board thinks the masses should put there money and "Buy and Hold". I also used the tracker for my returns data.
I suppose one could argue, using my YTD data, that I could have parked in 2030 and saved a ton of time chatting it up on here. :nuts:
 
Re: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE - don't ya just luv roller-coasters?

Great points everyone, when compared to others, my -4% don't look so bad... but knowing my YTD high was 16.61% reminds me what happens when you overestimate these markets and thier ability to tear you down quickly.
 
Re: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE - don't ya just luv roller-coasters?

JTH said:
Great points everyone, when compared to others, my -4% don't look so bad... but knowing my YTD high was 16.61% reminds me what happens when you overestimate these markets and thier ability to tear you down quickly.
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Well you are still in my decision making process.:) Once your fingers heal and you reenter the game with your true potencial, we both will be better off. You will let this help you to look out for the dark side. Higher gains come from higher risks and you will be back.:D
So everybody resets Jan 1,2012 and game on. I'll try to keep up.
 
Re: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE - don't ya just luv roller-coasters?

Bquat said:
Well you are still in my decision making process.:) Once your fingers heal and you reenter the game with your true potencial, we both will be better off. You will let this help you to look out for the dark side. Higher gains come from higher risks and you will be back.:D
So everybody resets Jan 1,2012 and game on. I'll try to keep up.
Click to expand...

Thanks friend, I'm glad to see you've been keeping up with your charting and helping others out. I do look forward to hitting the reset button and starting anew again. :)
 
Re: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE - don't ya just luv roller-coasters?

Come on JTH...get really positive so we all have to chase you in 2012. Think along these lines for your New Years Resolution:

Catch up to high of year (estimated) 20.61% + stated goal of 12% return + 11.75% to match what the funds collectively (estimated) lost in 2011 = a 44.36% return! You can do it!!! Please?...so we can just click when you do?:nuts:
 
Re: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE - don't ya just luv roller-coasters?

Mcqlives said:
Come on JTH...get really positive so we all have to chase you in 2012. Think along these lines for your New Years Resolution:

Catch up to high of year (estimated) 20.61% + stated goal of 12% return + 11.75% to match what the funds collectively (estimated) lost in 2011 = a 44.36% return! You can do it!!! Please?...so we can just click when you do?:nuts:
Click to expand...

In some ways you are right, I just don't feel the same competitive hunger I had prior to the correction. It's a war out there, the troops have regrouped but have yet to reattack. I know I don't sound too optimistic, it's like dipping your toe in a pool full of cold water and knowing you have to jump in.
 
Good morning

Based on my analysis I will not be using my last IFT to enter stocks, instead I'll sit in the F-Fund and await the next potential entry. Had I already been in stocks I would have exited on the 23rd. I did not want to start off the new year in the F-Fund, but at the same time I also don't want to force a trading setup that isn't threre.

Looking at the number of S&P 500 stocks above their 50 day moving average you can clearly see this third wave is smaller than the previous wave, which in-turn is smaller than the previous. Clearly stated, the markets appear to be losing momentum, or the internals appear weak.

View attachment 16833
 
Good morning

Today the major indexes have made higher highes, with the Transportation Index clearly leading the way by breaking above the the October high. Bonds appear to be confirming the move, I'll sit in the F-fund today and re-evaluate the price action after the close. Of note, I have started up my contributions again, to offset 2011's minor loss.

A view of the number of S&P 500 stocks above their 200 moving average shows how much damage occured during the previous correction. Currently, less than half are above their 200 moving average.

View attachment 16864
 
Good morning

From my perspective a topping pattern has formed and we should work torwards the next swing low. If I'm wrong than it should be obvious within the next few days. Being sidelined in the F-Fund is not always the easy choice, but if you want to be anything other thean a long-term investor, then learning patience and waiting for the right entry is a well valued skill.

Of note, the Transporation index failed to hold on to the majority of Tuesday's gains.
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