JTH's Account Talk

[crommie]

Concur...although it sure is tough watching everyone jumping for joy as they climb on the band wagon. :suspicious: I'm glad that AGG is also moving up...hey it's something. I'm staying in F for today and still looking out for falling shoes.

 

[Mapper]

The way F is holding on while equities track mostly sideways has me on the lookout for a falling shoe too. The gap up on open make's me nervous, the F fund adds to my nervousness. I see lots of discussion about moving into equities today but I'm maintaining my short-term bearishness and hoping we see a little drop before moving back to the Oct highs.

 

[JTH]

I am holding with ya JTH. The autotracker has 90 people moving as of right now. 40 show up. the other 50 are hidden. Of those 40 who show up 18 are moving out to G and F funds. I am assuming of the 50 that are hidden, are seeing that sell signal and are possibly taking their profits for this month and today.


Not going to jump the gun on this one. Time will tell though.

I think you are correct, my guess would be IT's folks are profit taking, if the entry were good, this would make for a nice exit.

Concur...although it sure is tough watching everyone jumping for joy as they climb on the band wagon. :suspicious: I'm glad that AGG is also moving up...hey it's something. I'm staying in F for today and still looking out for falling shoes.

You are correct. One of the joys of the F-Fund is that it can indeed move in the same direction as stocks, so sitting this out is less painful.

 

[FAB1]

Maybe the worst of the volatility is behind us? Still I am playing safe in Jan 2012.. 50G 50F!

 

[JTH]

Good morning

I have not liked the price action in AGG over the last few days. This morning AGG confirmed my concern with a gap up on the 30 minute charts. I'm taking an exit to the G-Fund, from there I will wait a few days to see what happens.

Here's a 30 minute chart of AGG, gaps tend to get filled.
View attachment 17020

 

[Cactus]

Re: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE - don't ya just luv roller-coasters?

Thanx for the info, JTH. I've been feeling rather lonely here in G while everyone else either enters the market or the F Fund. I just can't see it keep going up without some kind of rest/pullback. I'm trying to be patient and waiting to see what happens here. Looking at it another way, folks should be making tons of money as long as I stay out.

 

[JTH]

Re: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE - don't ya just luv roller-coasters?

JTH. I've been feeling rather lonely here in G while everyone else either enters the market or the F Fund.

The only thing that sucks more than being in the G-fund is being in the F-fund and being #863 in the tracker Regardless of how I feel about it, both stocks and bonds are on a bull run and being picky while waiting for a pullback could serve to cost those sitting it out.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE - don't ya just luv roller-coasters?

I wouldn't be concerned about any ranking just yet - I was at #764 yesterday and #346 today - probably heading back down on the COB. The Beige Book was promising and the bond market is 10 times the size of the equity market - money will flow as rates inch up.

 

[JTH]

Re: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE - don't ya just luv roller-coasters?

Good morning

Sitting in the G-Fund, looking for the next entry...

 

[JTH]

Re: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE - don't ya just luv roller-coasters?

Good morning

My plan for this year is very much the same as last year, the conservative tactics, charts, indicators, and interpretation methods remain the same. The only difference is this year I've added a serving of humble pie. As with last year, my goal is to not be invested as much as possible, seeking to make quick gains over short periods of time, then sitting back and watching the price waves flow back.

For the S&P 500, if 1296 is the high, then I will look for a 50-75% retracement of the previous swing low/high wave. That would give us a target of 1275-1250. Some internals are at extreme highs within the 6-month window, so I'll be looking at them for confirmation.

View attachment 17053

 

[Bquat]

Re: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE - don't ya just luv roller-coasters?

Good morning

My plan for this year is very much the same as last year, the conservative tactics, charts, indicators, and interpretation methods remain the same. The only difference is this year I've added a serving of humble pie. As with last year, my goal is to not be invested as much as possible, seeking to make quick gains over short periods of time, then sitting back and watching the price waves flow back.

For the S&P 500, if 1296 is the high, then I will look for a 50-75% retracement of the previous swing low/high wave. That would give us a target of 1275-1250. Some internals are at extreme highs within the 6-month window, so I'll be looking at them for confirmation.

View attachment 17053

Do you think 1277 is enought. It seems the market is being bought at 1% drops. You think this wall of worry will continue? I almost added to my position with a bounce before reaching the first Fib. retracement level. With your new Capital Preservation outlook, what do you think?

 

[Bquat]

Oh, I see what you mean now with 1275. I redrew the Fib. retracement to the current high.

 

[JTH]

Re: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE - don't ya just luv roller-coasters?

You think this wall of worry will continue? I almost added to my position with a bounce before reaching the first Fib. retracement level. With your new Capital Preservation outlook, what do you think?

I think the WoW can go beyond anyone's expectations including my own. With the limited number of IFTs we get, I'm not partial to spit allocations, but if it's working for you, then don't break it, we've have seen plenty of folks use this strategy with success.

 

[JTH]

Re: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE - don't ya just luv roller-coasters?

Good morning

It seems like I've missed some of those dandy pops, the only good thing about the G-Fund is the loan rate of 1.5% AGG is up this morning, I call attention to the Transportation Index...

View attachment 17085

 

[JamesE]

Re: The tran

Good morning

I call attention to the Transportation Index...

View attachment 17085

Does that look like the start of something (down) ? This thing may float for awhile longer, however Big money doesn't like low volatility. My bet is "something" will pop up before long, because right now they're lulling the retail investors to sleep.

 

[JTH]

Re: The tran

Does that look like the start of something (down) ? This thing may float for awhile longer, however Big money doesn't like low volatility. My bet is "something" will pop up before long, because right now they're lulling the retail investors to sleep.

While I would love to be in this up-trickling market, at this juncture, I'm looking for an SPX pullback in the 1265-1240 range. While working this latest upswing I have gotten a couple of false sell signals, but it hasn't been enough to flip me over to an embedded condition where I'd disregard waiting for the pullback and enter stocks. If I end up in the G&F funds all year, then so be it, I won't be willing myself upon these markets, sucks to be me...

 

[JTH]

Re: have you found your MOJO?

I don't know how much more non-investment pain I can take, as I am clearly getting frustrated while waiting for this market to pullback. This is how someone feels right before they buy at the top of the wave, just before the selloff...

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I don't know how much more non-investment pain I can take, as I am clearly getting frustrated while waiting for this market to pullback. This is how someone feels right before they buy at the top of the wave, just before the selloff...

Or how we felt long from Aug 1st on...

 

[SteelSaving]

Re: have you found your MOJO?

I don't know how much more non-investment pain I can take, as I am clearly getting frustrated while waiting for this market to pullback. This is how someone feels right before they buy at the top of the wave, just before the selloff...

No, the top will be the next day, when you finally decide to buy in. THEN comes the sell off.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: have you found your MOJO?

The longer one waits the more it will cost with fewer shares collected. Don't worry about the piranha, they're friendly.