JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Re: have you found your MOJO?

I don't know how much more non-investment pain I can take, as I am clearly getting frustrated while waiting for this market to pullback. This is how someone feels right before they buy at the top of the wave, just before the selloff...

Now the non-investment pain has been replaced with disgust...

 

[JamesE]

Re: have you found your MOJO?

Now the non-investment pain has been replaced with disgust...

Last time I heard you talking like this was last year during your fall down the tracker. Like you, I'm tempted to jump back in as everyone, even some small (some domestic some feral) animals have become bulls this week. Not sure what happened to all of last weeks charts, indicators theorys and systems.








p.s. I made up the animal part

 

[Birchtree]

Re: have you found your MOJO?

I can't imagine what I'm going to do when the Dow reaches 14,154 - probably wait on 17,000. Nobody likes this market and that's the way it should be - the bull only wants a few on for the ride.

 

[Appatite]

Re: have you found your MOJO?

I don't know how much more non-investment pain I can take, as I am clearly getting frustrated while waiting for this market to pullback. This is how someone feels right before they buy at the top of the wave, just before the selloff...

I have been told that when in a bull market expect bullish results. I understand and agree with your philosophy about risk management. In a bear market this means being in stocks as few days as possible. Being in a bull market this means asjusting upwards in days in stocks. I think you may be acting as if we are still in a bear market.

 

[JTH]

Re: have you found your MOJO?

I have been told that when in a bull market expect bullish results. I understand and agree with your philosophy about risk management. In a bear market this means being in stocks as few days as possible. Being in a bull market this means asjusting upwards in days in stocks. I think you may be acting as if we are still in a bear market.

When the 50MA is above the 200MA on the Transports, S&P 500, and Wilshire 4500, then I'll call it a bull market, until then it's a bull rally within a Bear Market. I won't deny it has been a magnificent rally, but within the current context, prices are overbought, overextended, and (as illustrated when you lay down a 30 day linear regression line over volume) volume is declining. I've been looking for confirmation of an upside-embedded condition within my internals, but have yet to get that. I've done well in my ROTH IRA, but within TSP I'm having a harder time finding the ideal entry, so I'll sit and wait...

View attachment 17120

 

[DakotaKid]

Re: have you found your MOJO?

I don't know how much more non-investment pain I can take, as I am clearly getting frustrated while waiting for this market to pullback. This is how someone feels right before they buy at the top of the wave, just before the selloff...

I know how you feel. It's what screwed me for the majority of 2009 (after the big drop of '08). I was always waiting for a correction to get back in, which never really materialized - causing me to miss a large portion of the rally. I was convinced I would be buying in at the top. Food for thought. That's the primary reason for why I started working on a system for myself to take the emotion out of my trades.

Good Luck!!

 

[Cactus]

Re: have you found your MOJO?

I know how you feel. It's what screwed me for the majority of 2009 (after the big drop of '08). I was always waiting for a correction to get back in, which never really materialized - causing me to miss a large portion of the rally. I was convinced I would be buying in at the top.

That was me. I was in G the whole last half of 2009 waiting for a correction to buy into. Of course, then as now I'm convinced it kept going up because I stayed in G. In case anyone is interested, I won't be entering the mrkt this week but will continue in G waiting for a dip next week that may never come. :suspicious:

 

[JTH]

Re: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE - don't ya just luv roller-coasters?

Good morning

The Transportation Index has clearly broken out, and the small caps have appeared to resume their traditional leadership role within the markets. Even EFA is focused to the upside with a tailwind from the dollar. It's a beautiful thing when the markets are working together and making money. For me, everything points to SPX 1330-1430, I've had those numbers rolling around in my head, it is an obtainable goal and well within sound TA boundaries.

I'm keeping my eye on the Dow Jones Europe Financial Index. It has broken out today, establishing a second higher high, while on its second lower low. For now this is an outside trend, but if a higher low were to be established that would be very bullish.

View attachment 17133

 

[FAB1]

Re: have you found your MOJO?

I have my own idea what's going on with this rally...smells like Goldbag Sacks.

It would be rash to jump in now from bonds but expect the long term to be Up at least for a few more weeks

 

[JTH]

Re: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE - don't ya just luv roller-coasters?

Good morning

You can't win every battle, but that doesn't mean there isn’t always something to be gained. Over the last 2 quarters I've done well in the F-fund and while eking out small gains is not as invigorating as the large gains to be had in stocks, the reduced risk of bonds have their own set of benefits as well. Over the last week AGG gapped up twice on the 30 minute charts, so I chose to make an exit and take profits because I believe these type of gaps tend to get filled more often than not. Last Friday both of AGG's gaps filled, so now I wait for the next opportunity.

Whether it be stocks or bonds I'll take which ever seems to be the better choice given its own particular set of circumstance. Given the sluggishness of the TSP system, an entry into stocks at these levels is not appealing to me, so I'll stay out of stocks. In addition, the fact AGG is currently testing the previous swing low, leads me to believe it's better to stay out of bonds until I believe the low has been established.

View attachment 17197

 

[Bquat]

Re: have you found your MOJO?

Now you tell me.

Just kidding buddy. Thanks for the charts and thanks for continuing to post frequently.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: have you found your MOJO?

Bonds are the doomsday trade - not for me. I can't stand negativity. I'm reminded that some investors may worry about losing money by jumping into an uncertain market, there's just as much risk in missing out on profits once the market reverses to the upside. We are overbought but can stay that way for a considerabe period of time before any serious consolidation happens.

 

[JTH]

Re: have you found your MOJO?

Bonds are the doomsday trade - not for me. I can't stand negativity. I'm reminded that some investors may worry about losing money by jumping into an uncertain market, there's just as much risk in missing out on profits once the market reverses to the upside. We are overbought but can stay that way for a considerabe period of time before any serious consolidation happens.

I'll kindly remind everyone how both you & I were outperformed in 2011 by the F-Fund and it was by a sizable margin. As with everything, there is a season, I'm not advocating anyone to run away from stocks, just pointing out this isn't the ideal entry point.

 

[nasa1974]

Re: have you found your MOJO?

I'll kindly remind everyone how both you & I were outperformed in 2011 by the F-Fund and it was by a sizable margin. As with everything, there is a season, I'm not advocating anyone to run away from stocks, just pointing out this isn't the ideal entry point.

Overall the fund did well last year.

 

[Sensei]

Re: have you found your MOJO?

The wuss in me has often rolled around the idea of assigning half my current balance and half my bi-weekly contributions to the F fund, and just locking them away forever, then use the remaining half to play this game here.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Re: have you found your MOJO?

I'll kindly remind everyone how both you & I were outperformed in 2011 by the F-Fund and it was by a sizable margin. As with everything, there is a season, I'm not advocating anyone to run away from stocks, just pointing out this isn't the ideal entry point.

I too stay away from bonds because I have not made much money. How do you decide your entry points, etc?

 

[JTH]

Re: have you found your MOJO?

I too stay away from bonds because I have not made much money. How do you decide your entry points, etc?

Good morning

AGG does not trade with the same level of volatility as stocks do. In fact, sometimes a when we get a day with large intraday ranges (think tail) it often marks a top or bottom. Otherwise AGG is usually going up or going down, you just decide on the direction and then jump in. I don't tend to scalp the AGG, so most of my trades are at a minimum a week, often longer. Right now AGG is going down, if it makes a higher high than Monday, then I may jump in. Sometimes I jump into AGG and pick the wrong entry, immediately going into the red, but if I wait long enough, I often recover before making the exit.

View attachment 17227

Also, the Transportation Index is on the cusp of a 50/200 SMA Golden Cross
View attachment 17228

 

[jkenjohnson]

Re: have you found your MOJO?

Good morning

AGG does not trade with the same level of volatility as stocks do. In fact, sometimes a when we get a day with large intraday ranges (think tail) it often marks a top or bottom. Otherwise AGG is usually going up or going down, you just decide on the direction and then jump in. I don't tend to scalp the AGG, so most of my trades are at a minimum a week, often longer. Right now AGG is going down, if it makes a higher high than Monday, then I may jump in. Sometimes I jump into AGG and pick the wrong entry, immediately going into the red, but if I wait long enough, I often recover before making the exit.

View attachment 17227

Also, the Transportation Index is on the cusp of a 50/200 SMA Golden Cross
View attachment 17228

Thanks. That is what I wanted to know.

 

[JTH]

Re: have you found your MOJO?

Thanks. That is what I wanted to know.

I'm glad I did not make an entry today, AGG failed to make a higher high than Monday, from my perspective the swing low has yet to be established.

 

[JTH]

Re: have you found your MOJO?

Good morning

With 1 IFT remaining, I'd hate to not use it this month. AGG doesn't look like it's ready to reverse, on the 30 minute charts we have 4 recent candlesticks with a high of 109.99, today's high is 109.98 point is we aren't pushing higher. Stocks appear to be refusing to pullback, that means higher prices are to be had (at least that's the current tendency.) I'm very close to making an entry into stocks, despite the rally we've already had.