JTH's Account Talk

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JTH said:
. . . if you want to be anything other thean a long-term investor, then learning patience and waiting for the right entry is a well valued skill.
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Thanx for that reminder, JTH. I felt bad yesterday having obviously bailed to G one day too early, but I'm still learning and being more causious this year. Let's see how that pays off.
 
I plan to average my TSP account from last year (-7.02%) with this year - that seems more reasonable for a long term investor. A ytd doesn't really mean much.
 
Cactus said:
Thanx for that reminder, JTH. I felt bad yesterday having obviously bailed to G one day too early, but I'm still learning and being more causious this year. Let's see how that pays off.
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It's always better to bail too early than have to say you bailled too late. A little missed gain is always better than a loss.
 
Rules I have learned or am still trying to learn.

#1 Patience.
#2 Greed is not good.
#3 Entry plan as well as exit plan.
 
Good morning

I have not been inpressed with the performance of the small caps, IMHO they tell the true story of what is going on within the American economy. In a healthy market they tend to lead, in this market the Large caps have been floating us over the finish line, this is not a full-on bull market.

Check out the price performance of the Large, Mid and Small caps over the last 6 months and you'll see exactly what I'm talking about.

View attachment 16916
 
Re: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE - don't ya just luv roller-coasters?

Thank you for this. It is confirming my pessimism.
 
Re: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE - don't ya just luv roller-coasters?

I noticed the s&p trend too. Financials, banks etc seem to be leading. If so, that could be good news as they lead us down. Technology is hurting because price cuts to sell their stuff. Thats mostly small to mid cap stocks I think. If jobs data continue to improve that will float all boats.
 
Re: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE - don't ya just luv roller-coasters?

The VIX is not showing much fear today with our current consolidation - buyers could pop this puppy.
 
JTH,
It's so good to have you posting again.:) Now I have another assist on my decision process.:)
 
Re: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE - don't ya just luv roller-coasters?

Good morning

This is what I consider to be an unusual setup we don't see very often. I'm getting mixed signals due to the flat price action, and it's causing me to sit on my hands because I don't have the conviction to do anything else. For now I believe bonds are the best conservative play and since I'm already there, I see no point in moving until either stocks make a move, or bonds break the uptrend.

Here is a 6-month chart of gas, you may have noticed recently that in late december gas prices have stopped falling and started rising again. I like to use gas as an indicator of economic demand, direction and stability.
View attachment 16937
 
Re: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE - don't ya just luv roller-coasters?

Good morning

Last quarter I stayed away from the the stockcharts, blogs, videos and CNBCers. It was a good break but as a result, I find myself somewhat out-of-tune, sort of like thumping on a watermelon and not being able to tell if it's ripe or not. I do believe I am making the right choice, I just feel like I don't know the markets like I did prior to the correction.

View attachment 16974
 
Re: have you found your MOJO?

Glad to have you in the F Fund with us JTH! Could you explain to me what you are looking at in your posted chart? I haven't seen this look before. Thanks! Ray
 
Re: have you found your MOJO?

crommie said:
Glad to have you in the F Fund with us JTH! Could you explain to me what you are looking at in your posted chart? I haven't seen this look before. Thanks! Ray
Click to expand...

Sorry for the delay. That chart I posted did not convey what I was hinting at, so here's another chart. This trend line appears to be losing momentum, wave 2 was much shorter (in time) than wave 1. We appear to be due for a trend change, that does not mean the trend will be down, just different.

View attachment 16979
 
I have been watching the USD/EURO and the US 10-year yield. Dollar is up, Euro is down to $1.27, yield is down to 1.95%. It seems to me that if these continue then bond prices will continue up, but if these reverse themselves then bond prices will drop. It also seems to me that the other shoe is close to dropping in europe...but then again, what do I know! Thank you for your insight!
 
Good morning

With the flat & tight price action we've had over the past week it is entirely possible we won't get the short-term pullback everyone was hoping for, it is important to be prepared to accept that reality. While in the F-Fund I'm looking for CSI buying opportunities and today is a better day to sell rather than to buy, so here I sit...

FYI - Google Finance has expanded its charting software, you can now find 30 minute timeframes (and others) along with adding more technical indicators. Here is a print screen chart of AGG.

View attachment 17001
 
I am holding with ya JTH. The autotracker has 90 people moving as of right now. 40 show up. the other 50 are hidden. Of those 40 who show up 18 are moving out to G and F funds. I am assuming of the 50 that are hidden, are seeing that sell signal and are possibly taking their profits for this month and today.

Not going to jump the gun on this one. Time will tell though.
 
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