JTH's Account Talk

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Re: Friday

Just back from 3-wks travel out-of-country & largely ignoring national/ world news except some of the Olympics... so in the meanwhile, what happened to ye 'old Stock EFTs? Looks like they did Olympic high-dive / deep-dive and back to the surface... looks about similar shares-wise as when I left.

Anyway, have to also say -- I LOVE THE CABIN & the "WOOD"! Thanks again for posting great stuff, and ENJOY!
 
Re: Friday

FAAM said:
Just back from 3-wks travel out-of-country & largely ignoring national/ world news except some of the Olympics... so in the meanwhile, what happened to ye 'old Stock EFTs? Looks like they did Olympic high-dive / deep-dive and back to the surface... looks about similar shares-wise as when I left.

Anyway, have to also say -- I LOVE THE CABIN & the "WOOD"! Thanks again for posting great stuff, and ENJOY!
Click to expand...

I was definitively digging the cabin life, I could live out there permanently, my dog was living his dream out there. I have been looking to buy a vacation home, somewhere near a lake would be nice, with a small coffee shop nearby. As for the markets, usually what happens to me when I go on vacation, the markets fall off the cliff, only this time they fell off before I left and mostly recovered while I was gone. :cool:
 
Monday

Good morning


I’m back home from glampcation, so it’s time to get settled back into the usual routine.

Over the past 27-sessions the F-Fund has the best win ratio at 63%, but it’s the S-Fund with the most cumulative gains at 3.12%

20240819-01.png

The performance matrix shows just how mixed it’s been, there hasn’t been one fund to consistently outperform the other funds. Times like these make it difficult for those who are chasing gains by switching between funds.

20240819-02.png

Last week the The Top-300 was down -3.21% MTD but has managed to erase most of the losses and now at -.04%. Same for the Bottom-300 which last week was -3.00% and is now -1.11%

20240819-03.png

Recently, a positive gap at the open has a 73% win ratio for the session, this was an increase from last week’s 55% because we had 4 sessions both gap up and close up. Both Mon & Tue still have great win ratios at 82%, but due to a -3.00% Monday loss, it’s Tuesday with the best 11-session cumulative gain at 4.47%

20240819-04.png

Here’s some key highlights from the heavy hitters. The Weighted Top-10 put in a 2.28% WTD gain and the NASDAQ 100 gained 5.38%. Also noteworthy, everyone closed above both the 10-MA & 200-MA, and only the Transportation Index is down YTD at -1.42%

20240819-05.png

Have a great week~!
 
Re: Tuesday

The Indexes and Sectors are having a good session, but there's some weakness in the S&P 500's Top-10.

20240819-06.png
 
JTH said:
Looking at Tom's Blog, I hadn't noticed we already had 7 consecutive positive closes. Today would make 8, the first since Oct 2023, our last 9-run was in Oct-2004.
Click to expand...

The "C" fund since August 8th and counting today has closed positive 8 days in a row. Although on the 12th it was barely positive at 0.02%.
The "I" fund however is now at 10 days in a row closing positive since August 6th. Just like the "C" fund on August 12th it closed at +0.01%
 
waltj said:
I'm confused. Looking at the Yahoo site, since the 5th there have been 2 down days. The last down day was on the 12th.
Click to expand...

This is from yahoo quotes. Are you looking at a chart? The Aug 12 candlestick is black because the S&P closed lower than it opened. But it was up for the day by a few cents, as nasa said.

tsp-081924c.gif
 
Thursday

Good morning

Not much to report here, lot's of green on the field. WTD, our Weighted Top 10 are leading the pack, and we even have participation from the Mid-90 & Bottom-403.

20240822-01.png

The Yellow cells show we have several players within 5% reach of the previous 52-Week highs, but the small caps have some catching up to do.

20240822-02.png


 
Friday

Good afternoon

I'm suffering from an apathetic case of statisticians block, likely from an overzealous quest to unearth unwanted facts. :D

Anyhow, it should be noted we are very near 52-week highs, so the data presented below is overinflated. But if some random stranger ask you for the 17.5-year annualized return of the S&P 500, you can tell them it's 19.2%

20240823-01.png


 
Re: Friday

JTH said:
... if some random stranger ask you for the 17.5-year annualized return of the S&P 500, you can tell them it's 19.2%
Click to expand...

Funny, someone just asked me that the other day. :laugh:

But as they say, the one with the most information wins, so keep it coming!
 
Sunday

Good morning

This isn’t the usual scenario, at 27-sessions, it’s the F-Fund with the best win ratio & cumulative gains, with the I-Fund in a close 2nd place.

20240825-1.png

If we look at the performance across all 27-sessions, it’s the I-Fund which dominates the spectrum, but the S-Fund has most of the lead out to the 9th session.

20240825-2.png

The Top-300 are predominantly allocated in the C-Fund, while the Bottom-300 are mostly allocated in the S-Fund.

20240825-3.png

Here’s an interesting observation. Over the past 63-sessions, the F-Fund has the best win ratio, and has earned 72.7% of the C-Funds performance. This is a stark change when we look at the 252-sessions performance where the F-Fund earned 34.2% of the C-Funds performance.

On all timeframes, the S-Fund has both the best average-of gains & the worst average-of-losses. Regardless, it’s the C-Fund with the best overall average, and the best cumulative gains.

20240825-4.png

 
Monday

Good morning

We have a Tirade, with Mon-Tue-Wed having higher than average win ratios, followed by a weak Thur and very average Friday. For overall gains, it’s Tuesday with the most gains, as it’s managed to avoid the worst sessions.

20240826-1.png

A quick glance at the Markets shows on the MTD timeframe, the Transports & Small Caps haven’t caught up, but all the major indexes are trading above the key moving averages.

20240826-2.png

I’ve been posting this chart of the Tech Sector, which shows we’ve climbed back inside the channel. As I previously stated, once a channel is broken, I’m not looking to resume the trend within the channel, (but thus far I’ve been wrong).

20240826-3.png

From a previous blog I posted a 12-session projection based on a ≤ -1% gap down. While the win ratio was correct, the average of gains was significantly higher than expected. In hindsight, if I had used the the previous yellow-labeled -1.29% gap, I believe the projection would have been more accurate.

20240826-4.png
 
Tuesday

A minor observation, the last 2 times NVIDIA reported earnings, the next session had a very nice gain, but the S&P 500 didn't participate.

Here's NVIDIA
20240827-1.png
Here's the S&P 500
20240827-2.png

 
Present Performance

Post #2

At present, although we've not achieved a fresh set of 52-week Highs, 77% of the S&P 500's holdings have closed above the 50-MA (which is higher than the previous 69% from July's All-Time-High.

20240827-3.png
The present weakness is shown in the Top-10 where 50% are above their 50-MA.

20240827-4.png


From Monday's close, 30% of the S&P 500's holdings and 28% of the Top-50 are < -2.5% from the previous 52-Week High.

20240827-5.png
 
Wednesday

I've been sitting on my hands these past 7 or so sessions, there just isn't enough movement to take a position or exit one.

Anyhow, in terms of Aug YTD (regardless of the shallow correction) we are ahead of schedule.

20240828-1.png

Monthly Chart

20240828-2.png
 
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