JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Tuesday

Good morning

Sometimes I like to invert a chart, slap some TA on it and decide if I'd rather be a buyer or seller.
Mid price of this range sits at SPX 5312, with LR Std 3-R (Linear Regression Standard Deviation Resistance 3) just under this level.

So another -3% to 5312 might be a good place to add some risk.

 

[JTH]

Wednesday

Not much to report, until we break above or below last week's candlestick, I'm not enticed to buy nor sell.

Anyhow, the short-term stagnation is well reflected in the S&P 500's number of holdings above or below the 10/20 MA.

Of the 503 holdings, 40% closed above the 10MA & 50% above the 20MA. I'm most interested in the 50MA, thus far those numbers are holding.

 

[FAAM]

Re: Tuesday

REF your Tuesday morning this week comment & inverted S&P500 chart - 5312 may be a place to add risk - well, heading that direction hard this morning. Don't think it'll get there today, but perhaps tomorrow(?).

 

[JTH]

Re: Tuesday

REF your Tuesday morning this week comment & inverted S&P500 chart - 5312 may be a place to add risk - well, heading that direction hard this morning. Don't think it'll get there today, but perhaps tomorrow(?).

Yea, looks like I'm stuck in a holding pattern, but it is nice to see some price action. I'll be curious to see how the last hour unfolds.

 

[JTH]

Wednesday

Good morning

MTD Trading Session 7 closed down -1.67%.

The chart below has session 7 sorted from worst to best. Below is a visual representation of where Session 7 falls within the previous 63 years, and how the month closed in the far right column. I've highlighted in red 10 sessions above and 10 below this range, showing from session 7, the month had a 5% chance of a 4.01% gain vs. a 95% chance of a -4.34% loss.

Blog: Wednesday Reversal?

 

[JTH]

Friday

Good Friday

We have a sea of green on the WTD timeframe, the Top-10 have added an estimated 2.33% of the S&P 500's 3.46% WTD gain, with 73% of the index's 503 holdings positive WTD.

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Continuing the project on 52-Week High/Low analysis.

Here’s a 52-Week High review of our progress from Thursday’s close to the 7-session low, then going back to the 5-Aug -9.71% correction. At present 43% of the Top-40 are within -5% striking distance to their 52-Week High, they have an index weighting of 11.46%.

Of the 32% of all holdings in a -5% retracement condition, they have an index weight of 28.07%
Of the 21% of all holdings in a Bearish <-20% condition, they have an index weight of 12.08%

Consolidating both equally weighted & weighted data I’d score this as 57% Bullish. In comparison, the 5-Aug low would have scored 34% Bullish.

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Filtered by date, The highs are outpacing the lows. Thursday’s close gave us 37 new 52-Week Highs, with 73 WTD.

Of the 134 MTD 52-Week highs, they have an index weight of 23.07%.



Have a great weekend...Jason

 

[JTH]

Re: Friday

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Continuing the project on 52-Week High/Low analysis.

UPDATED: Here’s a 52-Week High review of our progress from Thursday’s close to the 7-session low, then going back to the 5-Aug -9.71% correction. At present 50% of the Top-40 are within -5% striking distance to their 52-Week High, they have an index weighting of 15.95%.

Of the 40% of all holdings in a -5% retracement condition, they have an index weight of 37.58%
Of the 18% of all holdings in a Bearish <-20% condition, they have an index weight of 8.01%

Consolidating both equally weighted & weighted data I’d score this as 67% Bullish. In comparison, the 5-Aug low would have scored 34% Bullish.

 

[JTH]

Not to be a negative Sinatra's Daughter, but when I see Utilities & Materials getting the strongest bid...

 

[nasa1974]

Not to be a negative Sinatra's Daughter, but when I see Utilities & Materials getting the strongest bid...

It took me a second but nice reference to Nancy Sinatra.

 

[JTH]

Monday

Good morning

The last 11 times the Index gaped down at the open, we lost a total-sum of -10.11%
Monday & Friday have a 73% win ratio, but Tuesday has pulled in the most gains.

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For the S&P 500, more than half of the week's 4.02% gain came from the Top-10.
Highlighted in bright Green, several players earned more than 5% last week.

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The S&P 500's last 52-Week High was on 16-Jul-2024.
This data measures the High on 16-Jul for all 503 holdings, and compares it with the daily highs from each Friday.
I've also added the 5-Aug -9.71% correction, where "in theory" this should reflect the lowest rating across the board.

Basically what this does is normalize the performance of the 503 holdings with the Index. Instead of using 503 52-Wk Highs (all with different dates) we use only the 16-Jul high as the date & price of reference. At present, we have an 87% Bull Rating, where 74% of the index is <-5% under a new 52-Week High, and this 74% of holdings have a index-weighted impact of 68.12%.

 

[JTH]

Wednesday

With 10 September sessions in, we are down -.27% MTD. The average close of the previous 63 Septembers is -.79%, so from this perspective, we are are above average.

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Monday's price action and .13% gain was somewhat muted.
Internally, 89 holdings put in new 52-week highs, with an index-weighted impact of 12.2%

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Comparing the Daily High with the highs on 16-Jul (the Index's 52-Wk High).
On Monday 69% of holdings with an index-weighted impact of 51% pushed higher than their 16-Jul High.


Past dates use current index weightings.

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Comparing the Daily low with the lows on 27-Oct-2023 (the Index's 52-Wk Low).
On Monday 66% of holdings with an index-weighted impact of 80% are more than 20% above their 27-Oct Low.


Past dates use current index weightings.

 

[JTH]

Thursday

Good morning

For the most part I've finalized the 52-Week project. Once the Index closes above the previous 16-Jul 52-Week High, then I'll reset the scoreboard. This isn't a measurement of the Index, it's a measurement of the high/low of holdings within the index. If for some reason you are confused just know it's not you, I just haven't found a way to accurately & quickly convey what I'm posting.

52-Wk High-to-High: On Wednesday 64% of holdings are higher than their 16-Jul 52-Wk High.
This 64% has an Index-Weighted-Impact of 47%. While not the highest score I've recorded it is Bullish & internally strong.

52-Wk Low-to-Low: On Wednesday 66% of holdings are higher than their 27-Oct 52-Wk Low.
This 66% has an Index-Weighted-Impact of 79%. These readings are some of the highest I have on file. Next month, the 52-Week low will start climbing higher, so the scoreboard will be reset each week.

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New 52-Wk Highs are outpacing the 52-Week Lows. MTD we have 174 new 52-Week Highs, with a Index-Weighted-Impact of 29%. Translated another way, basically 174 (or 34%) of holdings carry 29% of the index's performance. Considering this is all MTD across 12-sessions, I'd think this to be impressive.

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With the 52-Wk project done (it was a test-bed), I'll begin working on a 13-Week time frame, which is more suitable for my trading preference.

It should be a fun day for all, have a great session.

 

[tsptalk]

Thanks for sharing the results!

 

[JTH]

So Tuesday 3-Sep-2024 closed down -2.12% but also closed above the 50 & 200 MA.

From 1961 the index has closed down -2% to -3%, and above the 50 & 200 MA 46 times.
The results below show the 3/6/9/12 day performance after the down session.

The 12-Session Projection is completed.

 

[JTH]

Friday

Good Friday

19-Sep the S&P 500 gaped up 1.50% at the open.

From 1961 to present, this was the 57th strongest opening across 16,070 sessions.
For sessions which closed above the 50 & 200 day moving average, this was the 24th strongest opening across 8,953 sessions.

The chart below shows us the average performance of sessions 3/6/9 & 12 after the Top-100 opening gaps which had closed above the 50 & 200 day moving average.

Blog: 52-Week Breakout

 

[FAAM]

Re: Friday

JTH, thank you, & good-Fritag to you too. I'm again impressed by what you do... gives perspective I wouldn't have otherwise. FWIW I am not a great statistician.
... So, after you posted this, the day has been down (& I've not read TSP-talk posts about that, but it seems weird to go from S&P5k -2+% on Tuesday to +1.7% with gap yesterday to somewhat a drop today, though looks like the chart may be moving back up). If it doesn't get any worse than this today... looks perhaps that I should be a "bought & holder" of CSI for the next couple weeks.
How might the statistically poor seasonality over the next couple weeks play into your statistical crystal ball (skewed some by it being POTUS election year)?

 

[JTH]

Re: Friday

How might the statistically poor seasonality over the next couple weeks play into your statistical crystal ball (skewed some by it being POTUS election year)?

It's a tough nut to crack, 5 of the last 6 Octobers (during Presidential Cycle 4) closed down, but only 2008 was bad. Then there's this fiscal budget issue creeping into the headlines. If September's levels hold, (and the 3-month performance is positive) then the 4-Month performance closes higher about 58% of the time. Maybe the most important thing to consider, we now have a higher low & and a higher high.

I still believe my projected SPX High of 5888 is doable, and (from the previous post/projection) we could get there in the next 12-sessions. If that happens, then at that point I suspect the markets will need to cool off for the remainder of October. Either ways this is a very unique time with lot's of crosscurrents, I just want to get through the election unscathed.

[TABLE="width: 0"]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #d9d9d9, align: center"]Year[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #d9d9d9, align: center"]Month[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #fce8b2, align: center"]1-M[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]2020[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]Oct  [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f4c7c3, align: center"]-2.77%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]2016[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]Oct  [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f4c7c3, align: center"]-1.94%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]2012[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]Oct  [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f4c7c3, align: center"]-1.98%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]2008[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]Oct  [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f4c7c3, align: center"]-16.94%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]2004[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]Oct  [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #b7e1cd, align: center"]1.40%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]2000[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]Oct  [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f4c7c3, align: center"]-0.49%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]1996[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]Oct  [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #b7e1cd, align: center"]2.61%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]1992[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]Oct  [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #b7e1cd, align: center"]0.21%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]1988[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]Oct  [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #b7e1cd, align: center"]2.60%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]1984[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]Oct  [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f4c7c3, align: center"]-0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]1980[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]Oct  [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #b7e1cd, align: center"]1.59%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]1976[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]Oct  [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f4c7c3, align: center"]-2.22%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]1972[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]Oct  [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #b7e1cd, align: center"]0.93%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]1968[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]Oct  [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #b7e1cd, align: center"]0.72%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]1964[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #efefef, align: center"]Oct  [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #b7e1cd, align: center"]0.81%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[JTH]

Sunday

Good morning

I haven't reviewed the TSP charts in a while. For the G-Fund's 12-Month Projected Performance, I use the average payout from the last Tue-Fri. This is the first time (I've noticed) that we've dropped below 4%. Based on this data, you'll earn a total 1.01% if you spend the entire time in the G-Fund during Oct/Nov/Dec. But with our current 2.53% Inflation rate, you'll degrade .63%, so in real-world "theory" the next 3 months will earn .37%

Same story for my HYSA which currently yields 4.50%, of which (for me) 22% will be taxed, then factor in 2.53% inflation, thus I'm earning .98%
Point of this diatribe, it's going to get harder for some folks to stay in cash.

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Prior to the Fed-Cut / 52-Week High, the S-Fund was the dominant performer, but it did lose more on Friday than the other funds.

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Across our Top-600, the smallest allocated funds are the F & I Fund at 5% each.

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For myself, I fully aborted at the 5-Aug low, but since I was 20F/80C the -6.06% loss wasn't as bad. Since this time, 24 sessions at 100F earned 1.33% with the past 9 sessions resting in the G-Fund earning .12% Based on this, to make it worth my while, I'd need an entry around SPX 5488. Otherwise, I'm not feeling motivated to jump in at these levels just after a fresh 52-Week High.

 

[JTH]

New Highs

Google does paint bad data often enough that I try to keep my sheets limited to no more than 600 symbols, this way I'm more likely to catch an error. So that's one reason I don't spend a great deal of time tracking the small caps. But for this occasion I wanted to measure the performance of IWM against the S&P 500 to see how the internals compare with each other.

I'll discuss the MTD New 6-Week High/Lows, but the same principles also apply to the 13/26/52-Week price ranges.

This month the S&P put in 365 new 6-Week Highs. That's 73% of 503 holdings, which carries a weighted impact of 71%
This month the IWM put in 982 new 6-Week Highs. That's 49% of 1987 holdings, which carries a weighted impact of 57%

This month, for every price range listed, the S&P 500 has a higher percentage of holdings making new highs, and those holdings carry a higher weight than IWM. The same holds true for new lows, when compared with IWM, the S&P 500 has less weakness in the number of holdings and the weight of those holdings. Therein lies the question, will IWM continue to under-perform, or does this mean there's more room for improvement in small caps...

 

[JTH]

Tuesday

Good morning

Another project I'm working on is measuring the performance of all holdings by Sector & Weight. Eventually I want to be able to measure the 100+ Sector Sub-Industry's, to chase down individual holdings I'm interested in. Idea being I'd like to build a best of breed diversified ETF that performs well.

Anyhow, have a great day.