JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Hi JTH. Like your photo (from before ya went to Krakow)... assuming that was you walking dog in forest/hills.
In your forum-post today, you say you expect to IFT "in" before NOV, yet the bottom of your post says you're at 80% C & 20% G; is that incorrect balance of your current TSP spread, or are your going to put more of that 20% G into C, S, or I??
,,, Thx again for your sharing/posts!

Yea, I dug into the signature block early today (it should have said 100G. So yea I've gone in today 80C and leaving 20G for when the markets tank after my IFT... I'm still knocking off the dust here, and haven't even re-calibrated some of the spreadsheets yet.

 

[JTH]

Generally speaking this is what I call a transition week. I did my time change last Sunday, so everything for me (and the markets) is off by an hour. This combined with the vacation in October has made it difficult for me to re-acclimate back into my usual routine. Throw in a forum upgrade and we have the perfect trifecta for throwing me off my rhythm.

Closing the month with a .99% loss, October ranked 45th best of 64. While the month did close down, the index did make both a higher high & a higher low.

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At present we are 19.62% YTD, which would place on track for the 8th best of 64 years.
The average of the Top-10 YTD Octobers is 22.53%, from which the average yearly close was 28.72%

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Of the last 11 sessions, 7 closed down giving us a very low short-term 36% win ratio. The past 11 Mondays have the best win ratio at 64% & total gains at 2.25%, with Thursday having the lowest win ratio at 36%, and Tuesday the lowest total loss at -1.94%



Have a great week... Jason

 

[JTH]

Good morning

WTD the S&P 500 put in 138 new 52-Week Highs with an index weight of 32%

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YTD the Top-50 ETF XLG is up 30.17%, while the major indexes and ETFs are doing well, bonds continue to get slaughtered.

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As for the sectors, here's the Top-3 returns from Wednesday

Finance 6.08%, Industrials 3.92%, and Energy 3.76%

 

[JTH]

Good morning (again)

On Wednesday The S&P 500 gaped up 1.42% and closed up 2.53%

From 1961-2024 the S&P 500 gaped up 1% or more 60 times, and closed up 2% or more 98 times.

Here are the those results of the 3/6/9/12 day performance after the event and only when the index was already above the 10/50/200/500 Day Moving averages (which helps filter out bear markets conditions).

Based on gaps, the 12-Day performance had a 68% win ratio with an average gain of 2.11%.

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Based on closes the 12-Day performance had a 62% win ratio with an average gain of 2.24%.

 

[JTH]

Going to look for a lower entry somewhere else down the line.

EoB Toady 100G

 

[JTH]

When it's good, it's good.

Roughly speaking, 36% of the gains have come from the last 63 of 252 sessions. The past 63 sessions have a total sum of 11.72%, and 252 sessions have 32.12%. Over those past 63 sessions, Monday had the best win ratio at 68% with a 13.23% gain.

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Closing out last week, the Index gave us 168 new 52-Week Highs, weighted at 40% of the index.

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For the week, the Small Cap ETF IWM gained 8.74%, and even some of the Bond ETFs made some gains.

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Have a great week!

 

[JTH]

Good morning

It's been a very good year, and while I have maintained 20% cash I've still made more than enough to start prepping for a rainy day. So as we progress forward, I'll be shifting the 30% Speculation slice into the 20% cash slice, until both are at 25%. Then it's just a matter of waiting for the right opportunity to re-balance the cash into the other slices.

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[JTH]

For the S&P 500 our last 52-Week High was on Monday 11-Nov

While on Tuesday the index did close down -.29% we still had 140 holdings go higher than the high they made on Monday.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

Not much to report, we do have a tad bit of red on the WTD timeframe, with the small caps IWM ETF taking the biggest hit, and it has now closed below the 10 SMA.

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WTD, for the S&P 500, our Top-10 are flat, and the Mid 90 (weighted at 40% of the index) is where most of the weakness is coming from.

 

[JTH]

I just looked at the MTD returns on the Autotracker, there's no way in heck I could catch up to any of you out there.

IFT EoB Today from 100G to 100C

 

[quabit]

I just looked at the MTD returns on the Autotracker, there's no way in heck I could catch up to any of you out there.

IFT EoB Today from 100G to 100C

Wish I had waited a couple of days to make my move, but it is what it is. Something told me to give is a couple more days and then move but my plan said to go so I'll ride this out and just not look at it until after Thanksgiving. I don't get the feeling that this is a big crash but more of a pull back since we went up so fast. Good luck

 

[JTH]

Good morning

If I can get better internet connectivity, then it means I'll save a great deal of time not waiting from spreadsheets to load market data.

I've had issues with my sim card router for a few years, mostly unstable bandwidth and random crashes. So I bought a new router, so far the bandwidth is stable, but I'm not getting the higher speeds I was hoping for. At an average of 10Mbps I can get most stuff done, but it doesn't leave a lot of room for the extras. If I can get (and stay) in the 15-30 Mbps range, then things would be snappy.

So basically I'll spend countless hours looking for both the right window location and the best LTE bands, which means (at the moment) I'm less focused on the markets.

Have a great day... Jason

 

[tsptalk]

Have you, or anyone else, looked into Starlink?

 

[JTH]

Have you, or anyone else, looked into Starlink?

It's an interesting point of interest, if I lived in the sticks then I'd likely pay up for it.

In USD, I pay $32 a month for Unlimited Internet up to 50Mbps, and a Phone with a 30GB limit.

Star Link Hardware shipped would be $400, then a $84 monthly fee for about 100Mbps.

 

[tsptalk]

OK, thanks. It's not a bad price (I had no idea) if stranded in a near dead zone, but yeah, we want free equipment.

 

[JTH]

OK, thanks. It's not a bad price (I had no idea) if stranded in a near dead zone, but yeah, we want free equipment.

Agreed, it's not a bad price by American standards, but on the Polish dime, it's a bit too pricey for my wallet.

I did get the baseline bumped up from 10Mbps to now averaging 17Mbps. The new router lets me choose and lock in a specific LTE band. At default, it was tagging LTE-B20 which has the strongest antenna signal (but has weaker bandwidth). I found another band LTE-B7 which has a weaker signal, but is able to push more data.

It's raining and snowing here today, so all that may change with the weather, but at least I have a baseline to work with.

 

[FAAM]

I did get the baseline bumped up from 10Mbps to now averaging 17Mbps. The new router lets me choose and lock in a specific LTE band. At default, it was tagging LTE-B20 which has the strongest antenna signal (but has weaker bandwidth). I found another band LTE-B7 which has a weaker signal, but is able to push more data.

It's raining and snowing here today, so all that may change with the weather, but at least I have a baseline to work with.

Hope your speed increases even more. Miss seeing all your market data crunch results.
Regarding the Rain/Snow in Poland, do you have a geiger-counter? No joke - hope it never happens/ unlikely, yet with all the Ruskie-Ork nuke-related talk & threats, don't want any fallout. We were stationed in W. Berlin during the 1st Cold-War when Chernobyl failed and got some significant fallout from it.

 

[JTH]

Hope your speed increases even more. Miss seeing all your market data crunch results.
Regarding the Rain/Snow in Poland, do you have a geiger-counter? No joke - hope it never happens/ unlikely, yet with all the Ruskie-Ork nuke-related talk & threats, don't want any fallout. We were stationed in W. Berlin during the 1st Cold-War when Chernobyl failed and got some significant fallout from it.

Got the speed up to the 20-30Mbps range, but more importantly it's more consistent, so I'm as happy as a pig in a blanket

As for the nukes, my plan is speed & distance. I've always kept a full tank of gas, extra water and extra cash. I do frequently monitor the air quality in Poland and with that the wind currents in the region. Not much I can do, but I'm 15 minutes from Germany, so I can cover a lot of ground quickly and potentially get to the Netherlands in 7 hours on 1 tank of gas.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

This being a holiday week, I suppose we can expect some lighter volume with a slight upside bias. This also takes us into the end of month which seems to have it's own upside bias. I did take (and exit) some leveraged trades this month, it's been a great year, so I'm starting to lay of the throttle a bit. I plan to be 25% cash by year end.

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At present the indexes are holding up well, the Mid & Small Cap ETF VXF (I hold) gave us a 5.43% gain on the week.

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The 52-Week Highs are still outpacing the lows. For the week, the S&P 500 gave us 96 new 52-week highs weighted at 24% of the index.

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For the TSP Funds, the S-Fund has gained 8.47% over the past 27 sessions and the I-Fund has lost -4.09%

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Are we entering the season for small caps? On the 1-27 day performance chart, the S-Fund is dominating all other funds.

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In Poland a lot of folks get their tires swapped out for winter tires, (it's a thing here). Mind you I've been here since 2015 and have not saw the need to change tires, but truth be told if there's ice on the road, then I won't drive. But my wife changes her tires and the winter tires are stored at her father's village, so on Friday we take a road trip.

Somebody eat an extra serving of turkey for me and take a nap, have a great week!

 

[tsptalk]

I will be happy to do that for you.

Somebody eat an extra serving of turkey for me and take a nap, have a great week!