JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Just an observation. Interesting to see, by your chart, how the market has reacted during the current administration.

Yea, everything post-covid looks like a substantial increase in volatility. Even if we take in back 60 months to the Feb-2020 Covid top, we still have about a -8% drop down to fair value. I suppose we will never return to what was normal 20 years ago, too many buyers & programs.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

Sometimes I have to go back through spreadsheets and check my work because I often forget how I created them, and I worry they somehow got corrupted.

The S&P 500 made its last 52-Week high on 6 Dec 2024.

This Tuesday there were 77 holdings which pressed higher than the high they made on 6 Dec 2024. Those holdings are estimated to be weighted at 38% of the index. Weightings do change daily, I usually just update them after Friday's close.

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So where does the money flow on a bad day?

Of those 77 holdings, 16 closed positive on Tue/WTD/MTD/QTD/YTD and in 2024. It should be taken into account the MTD/QTD/YTD data is in sync, until we enter the next month & quarter.

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On the list above, a Utilities company called VST (Vistra Corp) is up 18.50% YTD and closed 2024 at 257.92%

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I'm not at a point where I'm ready to start cherry picking, but some of those 16 holdings do peak my interest.

Have a great day... Jason

 

[JTH]

So where does the money flow on a bad day?

Of those 77 holdings, 16 closed positive on Tue/WTD/MTD/QTD/YTD and in 2024. It should be taken into account the MTD/QTD/YTD data is in sync, until we enter the next month & quarter.

View attachment 67646

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Ah shucks, just realized the CLS column (Tuesdays Close) was was calculated in reverse, so that data was filtered wrong. But the rest of the data is good, so 5/6 will have to do for now.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

It's somewhat disappointing to see that within my Google News Feed there is not 1 mention of President Carter's Funeral today. Although he wasn't my first President, he was the first one I remember, and was my Father's first Commander-In-Chief.

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Across 63 years, the Month of January has a 59% win ratio for an average gain of 4.42% or loss of -3.66%
Across 63 years, the Yearly win ratio is 71% for an average gain of 16.71% or loss of -11.72%
___
However, the Jan-2025 low has pierced below the low of Dec-2024. From Dec-1961 this has happened 24 of 63 times.
From those 24 events, the Month of January had a 29% win ratio with an average gain of 3.74% or an average loss of -4.54%
From those 24 events, the yearly win ratio was 63% with an average gain of 15.05% or an average loss of -13.32%
It should be noted that at present Jan-2025, the difference in lows between Dec & Jan is a scant -.05%, this would be the smallest difference over the past 63 years. The smaller the difference, the better the outcome is for January & the Year. For the months where Jan did close down, the difference between the Dec/Jan Low was an average of -4.34%

 

[nasa1974]

Good morning

It's somewhat disappointing to see that within my Google News Feed there is not 1 mention of President Carter's Funeral today. Although he wasn't my first President, he was the first one I remember, and was my Father's first Commander-In-Chief.

I served under Nixon and Ford.

 

[rangerray]

Reagan for me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[waltj]

I guess I'm really old, served under Johnson and retired half way through George H W Bushes term. Then I got bored and retired again in 2015.

 

[JTH]

IFT EoB Today, from 100C to 100G

For IFT timing purposes, I'd like to be back in the C-Fund before the end of month.

Outside TSP, the accounts are peaking again, so it's a good time to roll some out of the Traditional IRA and into the ROTH IRA. Last year I rolled out 10K, and since it was a good year, that 10K was recovered, so this year I'll do 12.5K and see how it works out. I would do more, but I'm trying to not pay the taxes all at once.

Have a great day... Jason

 

[JTH]

Do I trust that China has a new & cheaper AI model that will ultimately devalue the AI Train?

IFT EoB today from 100G to 100C.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

Here's an excerpt from the February Blog which will get posted after the markets close tomorrow.

Last year, I did an extensive Blog on The January Trifecta. This year, I'm not going to rehash those stats, as the overall outcome will be the same, where "typically" a positive January leads to a positive year. But what we can do is illustrate the difference between the last 21 Positive & Negative January's. The chart below shows that for every following month where January closed positive, the win ratios are higher and the yearly win ratio is higher.

The usual caveat, when we win more often, the gains are often smaller, but in this case the cumulative yearly gains are substantially higher.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

In the draft of February's Blog, I exceeded my 10-attachement ration card, so I've posted the Presidential Cycle stats as a separate (but brief) blog.

BLOG: Presidential Cycle Year 1

 

[JTH]

Interesting?

4 Sectors closed under the 200-SMA, 7 under the 100-SMA, & 6 under the 50-SMA.

Yet only the Tech Sector is down YTD

 

[JTH]

For the S&P 500, thus far this year 112 holdings have made new 52-Week highs.
These 112 holdings have an estimated index weight of 37%

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The S&P 500's last 52-Week High was on 24-Jan-2025

On Friday, 317 holdings went higher than their 24-Jan high, with 214 of those holdings closing higher.

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At present, the S&P 500's last 52-Week Low was established on 5-Feb-2024 (and it's rising).
On Friday, 197 holdings pressed ≥ 20% above their 5-Feb low, roughly weighted at 58% of the index.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

The February Blog is out, it's a critical month, so I've packed it with as much relevant data as possible.

Stay healthy.... Jason

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Our 63-Years sorted by the 1st Session of the month vs. the Monthly close.

Left: For all 63-years, the 1st day of the month had a 57% win ratio with the Monthly at 60%
Middle: When the 1st day of the month closed positive, the Monthly win ratio was 65%
Right: When the 1st day of the month closed negative, the Monthly win ratio was 53%

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On the short-term chart, the last 16-positive opening gaps have a 63% win ratio, this has been less reliable, than the 252-Session 71% norm.
While Monday has the strongest win ratio, it's Tue/Wed/Fri which have pulled in the strongest gains.

But... on the Long-term 252 Session Chart, Monday & Friday have each pulled in more than twice the gains of Tue/Wed/Thu, and Thursday has lost -.52% across 252 sessions.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

I wanted to take some time to digest and sort the previous 63-Years, which comprises 756 days/months. While win ratios are good info, the real meat is in the average gains & losses (and more importantly) the statistical probability of achieving those gains & losses.

For Monthly data, perhaps you're looking for a conservative +/- 2% edge (not wanting to get greedy).
___For sellers, an Intra-Month high of ≥ 2% occurred 67% of the time.
___For buyers, an Intra-Month low of ≤ 2% occurred 54% of the time.

___For Buy & Hold, 13% of monthly closes ranged ≥ 5%, with 10% ranging ≤ -5%

,

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So the above chart was all 63-years. Since our current first day of this month closed down, let's only use data where the first day of the month closed down. In this case this reduces the sample from 756 to 323 months (roughly 27-years). Using this data set, we've decreased the probabilities for sellers, and increased them for buyers.

___For sellers, an Intra-Month high of ≥ 2% fell from the norm of 67% to 54%.
___For buyers, an Intra-Month low of ≤ 2% rose from the norm of 54% to 66%.

___For Buy & Hold, 9% of monthly closes ranged ≥ 5%, with 13% ranging ≤ -5%


Thanks for reading... Jason

 

[JTH]

Cheers

Blog: Battle Of The Presidents

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[JTH]

Good morning

At present, Feb-2025 Trading Day 4 is up .71% MTD.
This would rank 332 of 757 in the top 43%. On the Monthly closing scale this would equate to a 1.52% gain.

From the previous 63 years when Trading Day 4 closed MTD positive:

Monthly Win ratio was 74% with an average 3.60% gain Vs. 26% loss ratio with an average -2.95% loss.

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Thus far this week the majority of gains (an est. .57%) have come from the Mid-90.

 

[JTH]

Looking at the S&P 500 on the 13-Week High/Low time-frame.

Thus far, Week-7 shows 79 new 13-Week Lows with an Index Weight of 12.1%
But the Bulls aren't far behind, they have a lower number of 13-Week Highs at 51, but a larger Index Weight at 14.3%

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On the 63-Day Linear Regressions Channel (roughly equivalent to 13-Weeks) we are close to fair value, there's been some nice consolidation in the upper mid channel. With a Holiday coming up this Monday, I wonder if tomorrow will be a slow day?

 

[JTH]

I'm sure you've heard Meta (aka Facebook) is up 19 positive consecutive sessions...

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As for the Top-10, MSFT's Microsoft is deepest in the red.

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For the first time this week, Thur of Week-7 saw its 13-Week Highs & Index Weight outpacing the 13-Week Lows.

 

[JTH]

Enjoy the weekend.

IFT EoB today from 100C to 100G