JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Thursday

Good morning

My 17-Sessions in the F-Fund has yielded a .29% gain (an insignificant edge over the G-Fund's .26%). With 2 sessions left this Month, I have 1 IFT left, but I'm not happy with the choices we have at the moment. I may either sit on my hands, or park into the G-Fund and wait for a better setup.

On the 1 to 27 Session Performance scale, we can see the I-Fund is the most dominant gainer.

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Although the I-Fund has been doing great, the US Dollar is playing at key lows, which makes me wonder if we're setup for a bounce.

 

[JTH]

Friday

BLOG: September Primer

Here's a visual representation of the 2 Best & Worst MTD sessions of each September from 1961-2023 (highlighted in Dark Green & Red).

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Here's the same data sorted by End Of Month return. Overall, this shows us the Weaker the start the stronger the finish & vice versa.

 

[FAAM]

Re: Friday

hmmm... So, data says we want the Bull-flag for the S&P-0.5k to keep forming through the 1st week of SEPT or so; and the seasonality for it be damned. Well, okay by me!

 

[NWFLAGI]

Re: Friday

Jason: Saw the article below this morning and thought you and the crowd would appreciate it. Something to be said for exercising tactical patience, an understanding of the market and things in general. Have a nice weekend.
v/r
J--

Roger Federer vs. the Stock Market - A Wealth of Common Sense


Have a good weekend.
BLOG: September Primer

Here's a visual representation of the 2 Best & Worst MTD sessions of each September from 1961-2023 (highlighted in Dark Green & Red).

View attachment 61678

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Here's the same data sorted by End Of Month return. Overall, this shows us the Weaker the start the stronger the finish & vice versa.

View attachment 61679[/QUOTE]

 

[JTH]

Re: Friday

Jason: Saw the article below this morning and thought you and the crowd would appreciate it. Something to be said for exercising tactical patience, an understanding of the market and things in general. Have a nice weekend.
v/r
J--

Roger Federer vs. the Stock Market - A Wealth of Common Sense

Awe yea, I forgot Ben had a blog, he's a solid guy and a regular listen for me on The Compound.

The stats he posted hold up well, we win more often but on down days lose a tad more. Really the only thing that separates any of us is the amount of time we have ahead of us and what we did with the time we've already used. But yea as he stated, many of the best players in the game (as with the best traders) actually have win ratios much closer to 54% than 80%.

Also, thx, it reminds me Id like to post an update to the current win ratios and gains over various time periods, so I'll post a blog later this week on that topic.

 

[JTH]

Monday

Happy Monday

When the first 3 sessions are down MTD, September has had a 21% win ratio for the month.

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Tuesday has been the best DoW with a 73% win ratio and 4.01% cumulative gains.

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On the 1 to 27 Session performance scale, the G&F Funds have the weakest performance.
In the lead is the I-Fund, but the S-Fund is catching on the shorter timeframe.

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BLOG: Stats for September

 

[nasa1974]

Re: Friday

Would be nice if September started out strong.

 

[JTH]

Re: Monday

Good Tuesday

I've added a few holdings to the mobster sheet, mostly Bonds.

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The S-Fund has the wider daily range, but it's the C-Fund which takes in the most gains.

 

[JTH]

Wednesday

Good Wednesday

The S&P 500's first trading session of September 2024 closed down -2.12% the 6th worst opening of the 64 months of September.

38% of the 1st & 2nd lowest close for September was found within the first 5 sessions, with 37% found within the last 5 sessions.
This leaves us 25% of the 1st & 2nd lowest close found within the middle 10 sessions of the month.

33% of the 1st & 2nd highest close for September was found within the first 5 sessions, with 25% found within the last 5 sessions.
This leaves us 42% of the 1st & 2nd highest close found within the middle 10 sessions of the month.

Note: Sep-1979 closed 0% (not counted in win/lose ratio)

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Predominantly it's the S&P 500's Top-10 showing us the most weakness and since it's currently weighted at 34% of the index, it has the unique ability of dragging the markets down for all of us.

 

[JTH]

Thursday

Good Thursday

A quick review of our status, both 38% of the Top-40 and of the Index are within -5% of their 52-Week Highs.
Of primary concern 6 of the Top-10 (weighted at 21% of the Index) are -10% or worse off their 52-Week High.

 

[JTH]

Re: Tuesday

Nothing to see here, move along...

 

[JTH]

Deleted due to filter error

I'll try again later...

 

[JTH]

Deleted due to filter error

I'll try again later...

So Tuesday 3-Sep-2024 closed down -2.12% but also closed above the 50 & 200 MA.

From 1961 the index has closed down -2% to -3%, and above the 50 & 200 MA 46 times.
The results below show the 3/6/9/12 day performance after the down session.

 

[JTH]

Friday

Good Friday

Something I find interesting, off the July 52-Week Highs, we formed a V-Bottom falling just short of a -10% correction. Then we nearly re-captured (but fell short) of the previous 52-week highs.

We've now spent 15-sessions within a 3% retracement, but have yet to commit to a hard selloff. Most of this selling has come from the Top-10 weighted holdings, many of which (could be argued) were AI-overvalued in the first place. Perhaps what we are seeing isn't a selloff but more of a reversion to the mean, an equalization back to reality.

FYI 63-Session Linear Regression Fair Value sits at SPX 5534, about .56% above us.

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I've now been in the F-Fund for 22 Sessions, at the moment the F-Fund is dominating out to day 14.

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The Indexes and their ETF counterparts are down WTD/MTD, as is the S&P 500's Top-10.

 

[JTH]

So Tuesday 3-Sep-2024 closed down -2.12% but also closed above the 50 & 200 MA.

From 1961 the index has closed down -2% to -3%, and above the 50 & 200 MA 46 times.
The results below show the 3/6/9/12 day performance after the down session.

Of those 46 times, the 3rd session closed down 14 times, here are the results for the 6/9/12th session based on the 3rd session closing down. Basically the win ratios drop substantially over those 14 sessions.

 

[JTH]

Good Sunday

From Aug-Dec...

Aug was the 5-Month Low 23 times, and closed positive 16 times.
The chart below shows the results for how the remaining months closed.

BLOG: The Final Four Months

 

[nasa1974]

Re: Friday

So what you're saying is we still have a chance to see some green in September.

 

[JTH]

Re: Friday

So what you're saying is we still have a chance to see some green in September.

Well August had a pretty bad start, it closed down -6.08% MTD on the 3rd session (the 2nd worst of 64), but we still closed positive.

So with Sep being down -4.25% MTD on the 4th session, we still have some room for a recovery.

Of the 23 times Sep was the 4-Month low, it closed positive 14 times, but....

Of the 7 times Sep was the 5-Month low (meaning it went lower than Aug) it closed the month down all 7 times.

 

[JTH]

Monday

Good morning

It's looking like a bit of a pause day, I don't know what the markets are thinking, but I know I'm thinking about tomorrow's debate. There's a lot on the line here, if the wrong things are said or perceptions are made, it could drive the polls in a direction the markets haven't priced in.

So I'm out, nope not even gonna continue my swell ride in the F-Fund.

Today EoB 100G

 

[rangerray]

Agreed. Not a lot of conviction on the side of the bulls today.


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS