JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Re: Tuesday

Not sure what your idea of fun is but for sure it will be interesting. Hopefully not frustrating.

Yea fun is subjective, but for me I love a good downturn. The markets have been over-priced and it'd be nice to re-value some of my holdings at a lower cost basis.

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Good morning

Tuesday’s price action had an average true range of 2.43%, but the index didn’t hold onto all of the gains, settling for a 1.04% close. It’s conceivable there’s plenty of traders in the hole who need to sell out of their positions as we go higher.

Off the previous April low, it took us 10-Sessions to recover half the losses and an additional 8 sessions to fully recover the pullback.

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The Table below shows the extent of the damage, (in dark red) the 7-day low off the 52-Week-Highs has (in many instances) corrected more than -10% and in some cases more than -20%

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The table below (last column on the right) shows us 2 indexes, 3 sector ETFs, and 2 of the S&P 500’s Top-10 closed below their 200 Day moving average.

 

[JTH]

Thursday

Good morning

Most of the commentary I've written within the forum is actually directed to myself. Writing in public view of everyone here gives me a good way to hold myself accountable, ensure I'm keeping my perspectives balanced, and eat some humble pie when I forget to check my ego at the door.

Anyhow, I don't have a TSP account anymore, but it's still to fun to play in the tracker. Outside of TSP, I have three portfolios which I keep balanced as best I can. If we do break below the recent lows, then it will be time to deploy some cash, but I'm not there just yet.

The left half of the pie makes up 50% and is Buy & Hold, DCA, Ride Till I die...
The 20% green slice is HYSA type cash currently in SGOV, reserved to be deployed during times of financial crisis in the markets.
This leaves 30% for speculation, sometimes Sectors, Leveraged ETFs, or just the Index ETFs when things are slow.

S&P 500: 52-Week Performance

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Thursday

If we do break below the recent lows, then it will be time to deploy some cash, but I'm not there just yet.

I considered a pump and dump on Monday but like you, I'm not there yet.

 

[JTH]

Re: Thursday

I considered a pump and dump on Monday but like you, I'm not there yet.

I'm getting hammered in the F-Fund, but potentially looking to re-enter the C-Fund on Tuesday...

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Happy Friday

We've finished Day-3 of the 12-Day projection based on Monday's -3.65% gap down. While much of the damage looks stemmed, we still have the other pesky -1.29% gap to contend with from last Friday.

[h=4]Revision: Who filled the gap?[/h]

 

[taba4555]

Re: Friday

Hi JTH
I like your analysis of the open gaps. I am learning and relatively new to chart analysis and I have a question. I looked at the S&P 500 and noticed some open gaps on March 23 2020 going to March 24 2020 and April 3 going to April 6 am I mistaken, and if so was the gap filled

 

[JTH]

Re: Friday

Hi JTH
I like your analysis of the open gaps. I am learning and relatively new to chart analysis and I have a question. I looked at the S&P 500 and noticed some open gaps on March 23 2020 going to March 24 2020 and April 3 going to April 6 am I mistaken, and if so was the gap filled

Thanks for dropping in, yes we have a multitude of unfilled positive upside-gaps below us. It's likely many of these upside gaps will not get filled...ever (we still have many unfilled gaps going back to 2009 and further).

A 50% retracement off the March 2020 Covid Bottom from the present 52-Week High would fill half those gaps, but that'd be a -31.39% Bear Market. Often times those upside gaps get filled during the session or within a few days. It's those upside gaps which don't get filled that make me take notice there's a bull run in progress.

The indicator used called Gap Detector provided by courtesy of TradingView User Asch-

 

[JTH]

Sunday

This week is our 3rd Friday’s Options Ex. The Past 11 sessions each show Friday has not been kind, but the following Monday & Tuesday have respectable win ratios.

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For Opening gaps, the past 11 sessions have been less reliable with 55% (normally about 70%) of sessions closing in the direction of the opening gap.

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For a medium-long-term perspective, the last 63 Monday sessions take us back to Apr-2023. Monday has the best win ratio at 70% and best cumulative gains at 12.57%

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For a long-term perspective, the last 252 Friday sessions take us back to Aug-2019. Both Tuesday & Friday have given us the most cumulative gains at 19.38% & 19.63%.

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Monday was brutal and Wednesday was mixed. This left Tue/Thur/Fri to make up the difference. For the Markets, considering the large sell-off on Monday (and the Friday prior), we held up well closing the week flat to down.

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MTD the Markets & Sectors are predominantly down, and for the moving averages we’ve not yet dug much below the 200-MA.



Have a great week!

 

[JTH]

Monday

Good morning.

My Wife is on vacation, which means I'm on vacation too, thus sacrifices have to be made. This is the deployed setup at the summer flat, even my trading partner Lou has to find a smaller bed to sleep on. Tomorrow I'll be glamping from the summer cabin (kindly lent to us from my in-laws).

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Over the past 27-sessions the F-Fund has the best performance. The G-Fund’s 4.11% payout fluctuates because it’s based on the last 4 sessions.

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Over the last 4 sessions I’ve been 100F, which explains why it has the worst 4-session performance of all the funds…. 5-Sessions off the recent Mon 5-Aug bottom, the I-Fund has been the best performer.

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You know it’s a bad month when the Top-300 is down -3.21% MDT, and the Bottom-300 is doing better at -3.00% MTD.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Monday

Not the laptop!! I hate working on laptops.

Enjoy the "vacation!"

 

[nasa1974]

Re: Monday Part 2

I just checked my laptop and my desktop computers aren't compatible with Windows 11. JTH hope yours is good to go.

 

[JTH]

Re: Tuesday

From 6-Aug

As a Guesstimate, looking at the chart below we would first need to stabilize above the 200-MA. Afterwards we might expect a 50% bounce to XLF 214.44. This is just under the green channel trendline. This is the ideal level I’d look for a rejection as we attempt to re-enter the channel. In my mind, once a channel (as strong & long as this one) is broken, it’s never recaptured, but an attempt is always made.

Anyhow, it should be fun to see how all this plays out…

A quick update

 

[JTH]

Re: Monday Part 2

I just checked my laptop and my desktop computers aren't compatible with Windows 11. JTH hope yours is good to go.

Actually I've been avoiding Windows 11, I'll probably upgrade when they release windows 12.

 

[JTH]

Re: Monday

Good morning

So we're starting to see some broader participation across the markets. Only the Transportation Index is below the 200-MA.
WTD The Tech Sector ETF XLK earned 3.91% and Nvidia 10.87%

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The Small Caps ETF IWM has picked up some steam, with the weighted Top-25% positive WTD and above the "estimated" key moving averages.

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And the gaps are getting filled.

Sequal: Both Gaps Filled

 

[nasa1974]

Re: Monday Part 2

Actually I've been avoiding Windows 11, I'll probably upgrade when they release windows 12.

Not sure how far into the future that will be for windows 12. Although I did miss read the end-of-life status for windows 10. I thought it was this October, but it is October 14, 2025. So that gives me a little more time to do some research for a replacement.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Monday Part 2

Actually I've been avoiding Windows 11, I'll probably upgrade when they release windows 12.

One of my favorite, go to code editing programs that I've used for many years doesn't work with Windows 11. :suspicious:

Just tried it a couple of weeks ago, so I'm sticking with 10 until I have to move at some point.

 

[JTH]

Re: Monday Part 2

Not sure how far into the future that will be for windows 12. Although I did miss read the end-of-life status for windows 10. I thought it was this October, but it is October 14, 2025. So that gives me a little more time to do some research for a replacement.

One of my favorite, go to code editing programs that I've used for many years doesn't work with Windows 11. :suspicious:

Just tried it a couple of weeks ago, so I'm sticking with 10 until I have to move at some point.

I've been using Win-10 since the beginning and I still don't like the GUI. For me, Win-7 was the peak and it's been downhill since. Their move towards subscription based services has moved me off MS-Office and over to Google Sheets. And yet eventually Google is going to **** me off too (as they have with their U-Block Origin fiasco).

I'm still using Linux on Virtual-Box, so If I ever decide to make a permanent switch, I'll be ready.

 

[JTH]

Thursday

Good morning

I'm light on trading this week as there's too many of those pesky "vacation" type activities I must attend too.

Using the 52-Week highs as a frame of reference, we can compare the 7-day low with Wednesday's low, to look for areas of improvement. Highlighted in dark-red are areas with -10% or worse, these are the areas which are still in a state of correction.

 

[nasa1974]

Re: Friday

The party ballons are a give away.

Enjoy your vacation.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Friday

Looks like a great work environment!

 

[JTH]

Re: Friday

The party ballons are a give away.

Enjoy your vacation.

Thx, those are the famous IKEA light bulbs

Looks like a great work environment!

It is, the cabin is solid pine on the inside, the real stuff, no splices, 40' beams, all wood. I worked a lumber yard 30 years ago, even back then finding that amount of pine at those lengths was a challenge.

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Thursday's Trading Day-11 gave us our first positive MTD close at .38%

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The 63-Year Month of August historical range shows just how much we had swung to the downside, but now we are just at the average of all closes.