JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Tuesday

Good morning

Monday marked 97 closes above the 50-Day-SMA, ranking as the 6th best since 2003.

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From 63 years, Jan/Feb/Mar closed positive 18 times. From this, April's win ratio was 77.8% with an average 2.40% gain, or a -22.2% lose ratio with an average -1.46% lose.

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IFT EOB Today, 15 Each CSI.

 

[JTH]

Sunday

Good Afternoon

Although we had some areas of choppiness, this was another green week with the S-Fund taking a stronger lead.

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Up to the 13th day, the S-Fund has the lead, and from days 14-27 it’s a nice back and forth battle with the C-Fund.

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This week the Top-300 saw an 8% & 5% reduction in the C&I Funds and a sizable 17% increase in the S-Fund.

Interestingly, the S&P 500’s 63-Year average annual return is 8.58%. Our Top-300’s average YTD (3 months in) is 8.60%, great job!




Have a great April!

 

[JTH]

Monday

Good morning

Looking at the last 11 of each, we have some interesting data.

Monday & Tuesday have a lower than average 45.5% win ratio, with Tuesday giving us a -1.32% loss over its last 11 sessions. Our last 10 of 11 Thursdays closed up with a 7.11% gain over the past 11 sessions.

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Over the past 21 years, April has only closed down 4 times. This month we get a full 22 sessions with no holidays. April-2020 gained 12.68% while April-2022 lost -8.80%



Lastly here’s the latest Blog: Stats for April


Have a great week….Jason

 

[nasa1974]

Re: Wednesday

Not a winning day so far. :twak:

 

[JTH]

Re: Wednesday

Not a winning day so far. :twak:

We did gap up at the open, so hey we could get an easy reversal in the last hour of trading.

 

[JTH]

Wednesday

Good morning

Here’s some “cherry picking” of data to cheer you up.

From 1961 the year closed positive 46 times, with April closing positive 37 of 46 times. April has closed up 18 of the last 24 years, and 16 of the past 18 years.

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Here’s a quick chart, at the moment prices are compressed, as an example, the 63-Day LR Channel off the October Bottom had a range of almost 8%, and now this range is 3.83%.

The 63-Day Linear Regression Channel (representing 3-months of price action) has a 3.83% range (from bottom to top). Because this range is narrow, I wouldn’t be surprised to see standard deviation 3 get pierced. The bigger question, could it prove to be a buying opportunity? Since the channel is rising, the risk might be worth the reward, but since the channel is also narrow it’s not what I’d consider the ideal oversold setup.


Also, volume over the past 7 sessions is a tad on the low side.

 

[JTH]

Thursday

Good morning

Not that I'm competitive (but if I were) then I'd be tracking who's in the lead...Dfcsmith

 

[JTH]

Thursday 2 of 3

The S&P 500's April closed its 3rd Day down -.082% MTD.

Posted below is April's closing results when the 3rd day was down MTD.
From the previous 63 years this has happened 25 times with 15 of 25 months closing up.
From the previous 21 years, this has happened 7 times with 5 of 7 months closing up.

 

[JTH]

Thursday 3 of 3

We've now closed 103 sessions above the 50-Day Simple Moving Average. From 2003, this ranks 5th best.

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The longest duration of price above the 50-SMA (I have on record), began 4-Jan-1995 and ended 9-Jan-1996 (an amazing & untouchable 255 sessions).

 

[JTH]

Friday

Good morning

As a word of warning, the last 5 of 11 gaps have closed opposite their opening direction.

From April’s historical perspective, we are very close to the average intra-month low (the average monthly low of all 63 months of April).

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Because this range is narrow, I wouldn’t be surprised to see standard deviation 3 get pierced. — Since the channel is rising, the risk might be worth the reward, but since the channel is also narrow it’s not what I’d consider the ideal oversold setup.

Looking at the 63-Day Linear Regression Channel, on Thursday we closed below Standard Deviation 3 Support (SD 3 S). Normally this is where I’d tell you it’s a 2.56% ride back up to the centerline (LRL). However, the centerline’s current price at 5279.13 is higher than our current all-time-high, so a rise back up to the centerline might not be a realistic expectation.

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If we stretch back 24 weeks off the October-2023 bottom, by this measure we are more than 95% oversold, so from this perspective it’s a fair place to look for a bounce. .

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However, in the Very-Long-Term view 78 weeks off the Oct-2022 bottom, we are slightly (about 68%) overbought. From this perspective, we could easily decline another -3% to the centerline.

 

[JTH]

Sunday

Good Morning (Report Card Time)

While many of us are waiting for the S-Fund’s small caps to outperform, it hasn’t happened consistently, and heck we are already 3 months into the year and 5 months into this rally.

What I find interesting, off the Oct-bottom the S&P 500 has climbed 28.29% while the Russell 2K has climbed 30.72%. But….. 26.82% of the R2K’s gains were in Oct-Dec of 2023. Since 27-Dec the S&P 500 has risen 10.02% while R2K has risen 3.07%

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It was mostly a down week, with the F/C/I Funds losing roughly -1% and the S-Fund losing -2.07%. Strangely enough the S-Fund has the higher 59.3% win ratio, but this isn’t reflected in the returns.

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On the 1-27 day performance timeframe the G-Fund has the lead on days 4-11, the S-Fund takes a 4-day slice of the middle, and the C-Fund leads from 16-27.

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On the Auto Tracker, this year I’ve been like a stick in the mud, stuck in the lower 500s. This might be the worst TSP start to the year (for myself) that I can recall. With this slow-trend climbing market, I won’t get an opportunity to rise unless I’m able to capitalize on the next swing low (which we haven’t had this year).

Sort of odd, both the Top & Bottom 300 have the same -1.15% MTD returns.

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This year, I’ve spent 84% of 2024 in the G-Fund (an unintended consequence of waiting for a pullback). With 2 IFT's still in the bucket, it'd be nice to either sell higher or buy lower, but at the moment, there isn't enough price range to justify using an IFT.



Have a great week!

 

[JTH]

Monday

Good morning


Looking at the last 11 of each, we have some interesting data.

Opening gaps up vs. the close have been less reliable at 54.5%
Monday, the last 7 of 11 closed down, but the losses have been small.
Tuesday has the worst returns, losing -1.67% over the past 11 sessions.
Wednesday & Thursday have the best win ratios, Friday has been closer to average.

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Over the past 21 years, the 5th Trading day of April has closed down MTD 8 times. From these 8 events the month closed up 6 times. From the 2 times the month closed down, April 2022 closed down -8.80%. (which is why both the average & the average-of-losses is so high).



The current projection might suggest lower returns this month.

 

[JTH]

Re: Monday

Good evening

Today I crossed the border into Texas (yes, they still let me in). I'll hang here for a few weeks then head back to Poland. In regards to the markets, the time change is a bummer, it may take a few days to adjust.

We are now 108 sessions above the 50-SMA (tied for 3rd Place).

 

[JTH]

Thursday

Good morning

I don’t have Post/Pre Market data for the S&P 500, but I do have this data for the SPY ETF. This SPY post/pre data can reveal additional levels of potential support and resistance not shown on the S&P 500.

Comparing SPY data and transposing it to the S&P 500, at the moment there are 2 levels I'm watching, 5190 as resistance and 5090 as support. At this time we are roughly in the middle of this 2% range. For myself, this is a Hold, I really don’t want to buy or sell in the middle of this range.

Here is a short-term view showing this morning’s price action, and the two ranges I'm watching. The pre-markets were mostly down, but have regained in the past few minutes.

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Here is an extended view showing where the Support & Resistance levels are derived from. Ideally I would like to buy at or below support, the lower the better. If on the other hand we did break back above 5190, then I’m likely to think either we will revisit the top and/or it may just be a good place to sucker us into a bull trap.

 

[JTH]

Re: Wednesday

Not so much a buy, more so an adjustment.

1st April IFT, 50G/50C EoB Today. (Previously 55G/15C/15S/15I)

 

[JTH]

Sunday

Good Morning


Last week was a rough patch, while the C-Fund has the lowest win ratio, it’s also given up to smallest losses amongst the CSI funds.

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From the 1-27 day performance timeframes, it’s a sea of red.

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C-Funders continue to dominate the Top-300 and make up 96% of the Top-50.

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For myself, I’m now 50% C-Fund, with 1 IFT left. If we go lower, I’ll buy more this month. Most likely I won’t sell until next month at higher levels.




Have a great week!

 

[JTH]

Monday

Good morning

Looking at the last 11 of each:

The Last 8 of 11 Gaps down closed the day down.
The Last 8 of 11 Mondays have closed down.
The last 9 of 11 Thursdays have closed up.

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And here's the last 27 of each.



Have a great week….Jason

 

[JTH]

Re: Thursday 2 of 3

Good morning

For stats, I typically try to post closing data, but I've been traveling, so I'm a bit late.

Here's our current April MTD stats withing a 63-Year April historical range.
... From 1961 April has closed down 17 of 63 times.
... At our current -3.65% MTD (If we closed the month now) it would rank as the 7th worst of 63.
... If I traded IFTs on this data only (and only April's time range), this is where I'd buy more.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Thursday 2 of 3

If I traded IFTs on this data only, this is where I'd buy more.

Thy will be done.

 

[JTH]

Post 2

Our Closing price over the 50-SMA win streak has eneded at 110 sessions, the 3rd best since 2003.