JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Time to March

That's it February is in the books.

"This Feb ranked as the 7th best of 64 Februaries with a 5.17% monthly gain.
Jan & Feb together rank as the 13th best of 64 with a 6.84% YTD gain."

BLOG: Stats for March

 

[JTH]

Friday

Good morning (keeping it short)

Volume on Thursday was high, but does it mean anything? I don’t know but if you ask me again in a week I’ll know the answer

The March Blog is done, I’ll be curious to see how this month plays out.

This week the S&P 500’s Top-10 & Top-50 lose some strength, the Small Caps gain strength, and the sectors hold ground. Probably the most notable this week, the S&P 500’s Top-10 has weakened in spots, as CNBC reports “A Broadening” of the Index is taking place.









Have a great weekend!

 

[JTH]

Re: Monday

Good morning ;damnit

There was a data error in the last chart of the March Blog, the data was correct, I just used the wrong date for the 9-day performance. The stats for the last 21-years are still low (but not as low) and the last 63-years is not nearly as bad as previously advertised.

___(REVISED) Finally, here’s a word of caution. The beginning of March can get a little bumpy, from the previous 21-years, the 9-Day MTD performance has a 48% win ratio. The average -3.23% of losses is partially from:

(REVISED) Mar-2020 down -16.03% the famous Pandemic low, closing the month down -12.51%. Adding to this, over the last 3 of 4 years the 9-Day MTD performance has been down. But aside from this small hiccup, it could prove to be another great month.

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For myself I’m 30G/70S, 1.64% YTD, with 2 IFTs.



We have a good run amongst the CSI funds, each have contributed and they are statistically close to each other. The I-Fund has the highest win ratio, while the C-Fund has the most gains.





Looking out from the 1-27 day performance timeframe, we can see the S-Fund is picking up most of the gains. Across the past 21 sessions the S-Fund has gained 6.89%





This week the Top-300 have reduced their GFC allocation -10% and increased their S-Fund 10%. The Bottom-300 have increased their C-Fund 7% and decreased their S-Fund -8%. We can also see that at 6.12% YTD the Top-300 have more than twice the gains of the Bottom-300’s 2.95% YTD.





Take care… Jason

 

[JTH]

Monday

Good morning

This week, I’ve posted both the last 11 and 27 session charts.

For the last 11, Thursday is powerful, having an 82% win ratio with the highest gains & lowest losses, the last 7 have closed up. Thursday & Friday are great, Monday is good while Tuesday & Wednesday are weak.



For the last 27, Monday/Thursday/Friday are best (in that order) while Tuesday and Wednesday are weak.

Should be a fun week!

 

[JTH]

Tuesday

Good morning (interesting weekly observation)

Off the Oct-2023 low, the following 9 weeks gave us a higher high & higher low.

Off the Jan-2024 low, the following 9 weeks gave us a higher high & higher low, but... We are still working through the 9th week.

 

[nasa1974]

Re: Friday

Not starting good so far.

 

[JTH]

Re: Friday

Not starting good so far.

Those Terrible Tuesdays...

 

[FAAM]

Re: Tuesday

Hmmmmm... so, this week poor start, may be putting in a higher-low.... Hmmmm, and then...

 

[JTH]

Re: Tuesday

Hmmmmm... so, this week poor start, may be putting in a higher-low.... Hmmmm, and then...

Last weeks low of 5057.29 (if it breaks) will perhaps give us a decent buying opportunity. With 2 IFTs, and already 70S-Fund I myself want something below 5050

 

[FAAM]

Re: Tuesday

Yeh... well if it goes to/below 5050 for S&P-500, then I'd like to see it pop down below 5000, quickly fill the big open-gap & pop back up for big negative-reversal - & keep climbing.

 

[JTH]

Re: Tuesday

Last weeks low of 5057.29 (if it breaks) will perhaps give us a decent buying opportunity. With 2 IFTs, and already 70S-Fund I myself want something below 5050

Yeh... well if it goes to/below 5050 for S&P-500, then I'd like to see it pop down below 5000, quickly fill the big open-gap & pop back up for big negative-reversal - & keep climbing.

Well, I must have Jinxed it today, we've broken through last weeks low, so the 8-weeks of higher highs & lows has been broken.

 

[JTH]

Wednesday

Good morning (Our 3-Day performance is -.35%)

I have some interesting positive short-term data followed by some disappointing long-term data to present. At the moment we are in what I would call a short-term positive pocket of statistics which aren’t the norm of the longer trend.

Short-term: Of the last 11 times our 3-Day performance closed down, our 6-day & 9-day performance had strong win ratios, with our 9-day win ratio only closing down 1 of the last 11 times.



Long-term: Off the Oct-2022 Bear Market Bottom (where we’ve rallied 47.49% across these past 18 months), the 3-day-down stats lead to lower 6 & 9 day performance across 144 events.



Just to be sure, we can cherry pick some data by filtering out daily closes below the 50 & 200 SMA. So for this filter we’ll use all of 2024, the previous 21 years, only daily closes above the 50 & 200 SMA and only negative 3-day performance (to get 6 & 9 day results).

This gives us 1,065 events where we see the 6-Day performance is weak, and even the 9-day performance is slightly weaker than the total of NO FILTERS averages. The last column on the right is all 5327 9-day sessions with no filters.



Bonus Material: We closed Tuesday below the 10-SMA. Here are the results of the last 100 3-day-down events both above & below the 10-SMA. Not displayed, of the last 11 events below the 10-SMA, the 6 & 9 Day win ratios are 9.1% & 45.5%



I swear I try not to post so many charts.

 

[JTH]

Thursday

Good afternoon

We are now at the point where a 50% retracemnt of the Oct-Mar wave would be a -10% correction (impressive). Within the 63-Day Linear Regression Channel we are close to fair value (on target). We are 85 Sessions above the 50 SMA, which would rank as the 9th best from 2024 + the previous 21-years (room to grow).

 

[JTH]

Friday 1 of 2

Good morning (post 1 of 2)

This week both the S&P 500 and the Small Cap’s Top-10 & Top-50 lose some strength, while the Sectors add a tad.

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The S&P 500 YTD has 7% (or 33 of 503) stocks with a 20% gain or higher. Perhaps more impressive, 105 stocks (over 1/5th of the index) has a 10% gain or higher.

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For the S&P 500’s Top 10 weighted stocks, we can see some underperformance on the short-term 10-D SMA and 5-Day performance (take note the Top-50 score is higher than the Top-10).

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Small Cap performance on it’s top weighted stocks is also weaker on the short-term scales. When we look at the equal weighted scores we can see the Top-50 is stronger than the Top-10. This implies stocks 11-40 are running stronger than the Top-10. I'll speculate this is a rotation out of the overbought Top-10 and into the lower weighted components of the index.

---

When we see that the Sector score is significantly higher than the S&P 500’s Top-10/50 score, (once again) I'll speculate this shows us the smaller weighted stocks are pulling up the rear (rotation & distribution).



Should be a fund day

 

[JTH]

Friday 2 of 2

Good morning (post 2 of 2)

Our 5th trading day closed up 1.20% MTD.

Historically a positive March trading day-5 closed the month up 6 times for an average gain of 4.09%, or closed the month down 5 times for an average loss of -3.87%

 

[JTH]

Re: Friday

IFT EoB today from 30G/70S to 100G (1st IFT this month)

Have a great weekend!

 

[JTH]

Sunday

Good Morning

For myself, I’m back to 100G, the 8-Day 70% S-Fund allocation yielded an additional .83%

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For the past 27 sessions, the I-Fund has been the strongest performer, while it does not have the highest average-of-gains, it does have the best average-of-losses (between the CSI Funds).

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This week there was very little allocation movement in both the Top & Bottom 300.

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As you might suspect, the differences between the Top-50 and Top-600 is stark, with the C-Fund dominating all other funds.

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On the 1-27 Day Performance timeframe, we can see the I-Fund has swept most of the gains. Out to Day 23, the F-Fund is outperforming the G-Fund.

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Lastly, as an observation: On the 63-Day Linear Regression Timeframe (representing 3 months of price action) we can see the I-Fund’s EFA & USDx are approaching overbought & oversold conditions.



That's it, have a great Sunday :smile:

 

[JTH]

Monday

Good morning

Although we did breach the previous week's low, buyers stepped in quickly at 5057, so now we have 2 weekly lows in the 5057 area, (which is also the March low).

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Since our last 3 of 5 sessions closed down, this week I’ll focus on the shorter 11-session chart.

_Last 11 Gap Ups have a 4.25% gain while the Gap Downs have a -5.76% loss
_Last 4 Mondays closed down (hasn’t happened since Dec-2022)
_Tuesdays are terrible with a 36.4% win ratio, with the last 11 Tue sessions losing -3.02%
_Last 8 Thursdays closed up, best gainer with last 11 Thur gaining 6.59%

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Based off the past 100 SPY sessions, this morning’s pre-market data suggest:

92% probability of a -.64% loss
35% probability of a ≤ -1% loss
8% probability of .05% gain

Enjoy the crappy time change (mine's at the end of the month).

Have a great week... Jason

 

[JTH]

Tuesday

Good morning (for fun)

From 8-March, going back 100 pre-market sessions on the SPY ETF, all 11 of the 30-minute pre-market sessions closed above Monday’s close 35 of 100 times.

Of those 35 events:
The win ratio was 89% with an average gain of .76%
The lose ratio was -11% with an average lose of -.42%

 

[JTH]

Re: Tuesday

SPY Pre-Markets looked good this morning but there was some selling in the last hour of trading.