JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Watch out for Day 2 post gap down, (this Thursday).

View attachment 60228

Good morning

The futures this morning have been north of flat about .10 to .20% much of the session. The sectors look good, but Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Amazon & Google are down at the moment.

If I had to guess, then today would be a good day for a fakeout where we gap up at the open but close down. I’ve also finally remembered this Friday is Options Expiration, so here’s the results of those last 27 events. 7 of the last 11 closed down with 3 of those 7 less than -1% losses, but our last one in Jan closed up 1.23%

 

[JTH]

Re: Friday

Just for fun

 

[Whipsaw]

Re: Friday

This has probably been asked before, what charting tool are you using?

 

[JTH]

Re: Friday

This has probably been asked before, what charting tool are you using?

I'm using Tradingview, one the paid subscriptions, but I think there's a free version with less features. Mostly use the indicators which can be customized, and I like the alarms that let me know when certain events are triggered.

 

[JTH]

Friday

Good morning

Here’s the equal-weighted scores across the Large Caps, Extended Markets, and Sectors.
Most notably, the S&P 500’s Top-10 lost some strength, the Extended Markets were flat, while the Sectors gained some strength.



In the short-term (as with this Thursday) several of the Top-10 have eased off. While yesterday the S&P 500 had a very nice .58% gain, Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, closed the session down. This may imply rotation as folks look for undervalued stocks.


The VXF is holding flat, and since it’s Top-10 are only 7.2% cap weighted, it’s much harder for just a handful of stocks to move the ETF around (unlike the S&P 500).


Overall the Top-6 weighted sectors look good with Healthcare and Finance contributing some decent gains.


Should be a fun Friday, and an interesting Tuesday. Historically, the last 27 days after Friday’s options expiration have a 33.3% win ratio. But most of those days fall on a Monday, and this one will fall on a Tuesday.


Have a great weekend!

 

[JTH]

Monday

Good Morning

Across the past 27 sessions our C-Fund leads, on the shorter 11 day timeframe the S-Fund has the lead, while the F-Fund is lagging across the board.


Performance wise, the S & I Funds are leading in the short-term, while the S-Fund is beginning to take the lead as we stretch further out to the 27 day timeframe.


Allocation wise, there weren't any significant changes, per the usual, the Top-300 are mostly allocated in the C-Fund.


For myself, it’s the same situation. We are at all time highs, but only get 2 IFTs per month (I have 1 left). With the G-Fund paying 4% yearly, (for my trading style) this isn’t a good time to take on unnecessary risk. Perhaps this week will give us some opportunities, we shall see…


Enjoy the time off (if you get it) thx... Jason

 

[JTH]

Tuesday

Good morning

Over the past 27 sessions, we’ve maintained a 63% win ratio which is pretty good. At the market open vs. the close, positive gaps are reliable at 89%, and negative gaps are less reliable at 67% (which is what we should expect on a bull run).

Monday is the most profitable day of the week, earning 10.52% over the past 27 Monday sessions. This is more than twice Friday at 4.35%. Thursday is very average earning us 1.02%. The worst days of the week continue to be Tue & Wed, they have lost -.64% & -1.56% over the past 27 sessions.


___
Listed below is the percentage of price above the 200 & 500 day simple moving averages. Roughly speaking we are in the upper 14% range above these SMAs.

Recently on 9-Feb, we closed 12.62% above the 200 SMA, which is the highest close above this SMA since the Jul-2023 peak. Off the Jul-2023 peak we corrected -10.92%. From 16K+ sessions this was in the top 13%

Recently on 9-Feb we closed 19.50% above the 500 SMA, which is the highest close above this SMA since the Jan-2022 peak. Off the Jan-2022 peak we fell -27.54%. From 16K+ sessions this was in the top 14%


Have a great week... Jason

 

[JTH]

Wednesday

Good morning

Since Tech is in the headlines, I thought I’d dig a bit deeper and look at some of the key players. Tech’s SPDR ETF XLK is on its 3rd day down. We are still well above the 50 & 200 SMAs and have not breached any major levels on the 63-Day LR Channel (representing 3 months of prices).


When compared with the other sectors,we can see XLK's recent readings on the 10-day SMA and 5-Day performance is down, but the YTD performance and contributions to the S&P 500 are still very strong.


Digging deeper, we can see some more weakness in XLK’s Top-10 which represent 69% of the Tech Sector. By market cap these 10 players are in the Top-41 of the S&P 500 and have a combined weight of 22.41% of the index.

Here we can see 9 of 10 are under their 10-day SMA, 7 of 10 have a negative 5-day performance, and 4 of 10 are down YTD. Perhaps there’s some profit taking, but what I haven't identified is strong rotation from the other sectors.


From my perspective, we really haven't seen strong selling just yet, but another down day, could give us just the goose we need...
NVIDIA reports after the markets close, so it should be a very interesting 2 days.

 

[JTH]

Thursday

Good morning (Timing IFTs with Opening Gaps)

Since today looks like we’ll have a sizable positive gap at the open, it’s a good time to dig into some gap data. The 1st chart below illustrates the stronger the opening gap. The larger the average-of-gains generally is. Of the last 27 times the S&P 500 gapped > 1% at the open, it closed down only 1 time, for a -.15% loss.


So we know a strong gap up might be a good day to sell (if you are so inclined) but is it the best day to sell? Let’s look at the next few days after a strong gap up day. From these results we can see the day after (+1 Day) has a very low win ratio, this might imply some profit taking.


Since we are currently above the 200 SMA, just to be sure, we can filter these results by separating data both above & Below the 200 SMA. As we can see the results are similar. One thing we can glean from this, if we are above the 200 SMA, the win ratio is stronger, but the average-of gains & losses are lighter. If we are below the 200 SMA, we win less often, but we earn more gains.


Since our IFTs are limited: Here is the 3, 6, & 9 day performance (total gain/loss) after a day which gaped up 1% or greater.


Following the 1% Gap up day where we theoretically earned 1.97% on day 1:
The 3-Day performance has a 74.1% win ratio, with an average gain of 3.18% …. Or
The 3-Day performance has a 25.9% lose ratio with an average loss of -2.21%

I love days like this, have fun!

 

[JTH]

Friday 1 of 2

Good morning (Post 1 of 2)

When a Fibonacci range gets so big that a 50% retracement is a -10% correction, then it’s not a bad idea to shelf it and draw some new levels. For the new Fibonacci range, a 50% retracement at 4847 (or -4.86%) is the same area where the 50-SMA and the February low reside.



February Trading Day-15 has closed 4.98% MTD. From the previous 21-years, a positive trading day-15 closed the month up 12 of 15 times. Closing positive 12 times for an average 2.84% gain or closing down 3 times for an average -3.67% loss.



From the 63-year perspective, we can see that this February has been very impressive, we are within striking distance of the 1970 5.27% close.

 

[JTH]

Friday 2 of 2

(Post 2 of 2)




For the Sectors, this is the strongest Equal-Weighted score at 90% that I can recall. At the moment, it looks like Tech & Healthcare have contributed roughly 3% YTD to the S&P 500 Index. Currently 4 sectors outperforming the Index YTD.

Comm Services is in the lead up 9.99% YTD, META is 29.54% of this sector, it’s up 37.34% YTD.



The S&P 500’s Top-10 is back in the Blue with an Equal-Weighted score of 91%. Roughly speaking, the Top-10 have contributed about 5.29% YTD to the index (the bulk of the gains).

7 of the Top 10 are smashing the Index YTD.


A rising tide does not float all ships.

For the extended markets, as they say “The beatings will continue”, this week the Equal weighted scores are lower, it continues to underperform while the large caps absorb all the inflows.


Just 5 trading days left in February, have a great weekend... Jason

 

[JTH]

Sunday

Good Morning

With 4 trading days left & 1 IFT, I’ll likely make another partial entry this week. If you think about it, no fund manager on earth would want to outperform the S&P 500 using just 5 funds, 2 IFTs a month, and a 12 noon decision to get end of day prices. But since I’m paper trading it does make the challenge more palatable.



Across the past 27 sessions our C-Fund is in the lead, on the shorter 11 day timeframe the S-Fund has the lead, the I-Fund is picking up momentum, and (yet again) the F-Fund lags.



Performance wise, the I-Fund is mostly leading in the short-term, while the C-Fund still leads as we stretch further out to the 27 day timeframe.



Allocation wise, the Top-300 are mostly in the C-Fund, while the Bottom-300 are mostly in the S-Fund.



Take care… Jason

 

[JTH]

Monday

Good morning

Thursday closed up an impressive 2.11% the strongest day since 6-Jan-2023. For ≥ 2% days, 2023 had only 1, while 2022 had 23 (a very stark contrast). The 63-year average is 6.47 days a year, yet 32% of these ≥ 2% are spread out across 6 years with 5 of those 6 years closing down and 4 of those 6 years in the bottom 4 worst years from 1961.

2022 had 23, closed -19.44% YTD
2020 had 19, closed 16.26% YTD
2008 had 31, closed -38.49% YTD
2002 had 23, closed -23.37% YTD
2000 had 18, closed -10.12% YTD
1974 had 17, closed -29.72% YTD

Anyhow, Monday is the most profitable, Tuesday still stinks, and Wednesdays have gotten better. Last Wednesday was a gap reversal day where we gaped down -.25% but reversed and closed up .13%. All-in-all it was a great week, and it would be nice to finish the month strong, as statistically it leads to a better March.

 

[JTH]

Re: Friday

There 3 things I like to do when the markets open. Play guitar, walk my dog Fred, or take a nap, today the nap is in the lead.

IFT EoB today 30G/70S

 

[JTH]

Wenesday

Good morning

As we gear up for March here’s a sidebar. From the previous 63 years, the month of March has a 65% win ratio (the 4th best month). Of the 24 years where both Jan & Feb closed up together, March has a 75% win ratio. Statistically speaking, based on our current Jan/Feb performance, we might expect March to win, but give less upside or (if it goes bad) give up less downside.



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At our current 6.46% QTD, we would rank as the 17th best of 64 Q1 Closes (sandwiched between 1989 & 2023)

From the quarterly averages, last week we pierced two key levels. The Avg. Of Gains 7.12% (the % average close of all positive 1st quarters). And the Avg. Intra-High 6.86% (the % average high of all 1st quarters, both positive and negative)



___
Long-term Linear Regression, 73 weeks off the Oct-2022 Bear Market Bottom, shows last week we kissed (and were promptly rejected) at the upper yellow standard deviation 2 Resistance level.



___
For tomorrow's Leap Day, the last 63 years gave us 11 trading Leap Days, with a 45% win ratio, the last three (2008/2012/2016) closed down.

 

[nasa1974]

Re: Friday

I think we beat the Tuesday it stinks win ratio yesterday. Although it looks like today might stink.

 

[JTH]

Re: Friday

I think we beat the Tuesday it stinks win ratio yesterday. Although it looks like today might stink.

I'm #734 on the AT, I need a win...

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Friday

I mentioned your thread in today's commentary as a must read each day, and no charts today? My timing is still great. :laugh:

 

[JTH]

Re: Friday

I mentioned your thread in today's commentary as a must read each day, and no charts today? My timing is still great. :laugh:

Here's the 21-Year MTD Statistics for the Month of March, it looks like we start out a bit slow then pick up in the 2nd half.

From 1961, March-2020's Pandemic Low closed down -12.51% the worst March and the 4th worst of 756 months.

On 23-Mar-2020 the index was down -24.26% MTD and was down -30.75% YTD



There should be a March Blog, after the markets close tonight.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Friday

Perfect. Thanks!