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JTH's Account Talk
- Thread starter JTH
- Start date
JTH
Well-known member
Re: Wenesday
Thee who acquires the highly fabled TSP Mug has the last laugh.
Seriously though I really do want to break away from the pack, and since it's the 1st IFT of the year, there's little harm here.
That 2nd IFT.... that's gonna be a doozy
Have a little F'in fun once in a while.
Really hanging it out there.
Thee who acquires the highly fabled TSP Mug has the last laugh.
Seriously though I really do want to break away from the pack, and since it's the 1st IFT of the year, there's little harm here.
That 2nd IFT.... that's gonna be a doozy
JTH
Well-known member
Thursday
Good morning
Here's a visual representation of where our current January 2024 stands in relation to the previous 63 years of Januaries.
2024 is highlighted in Blue. Our current monthly high of .68% would rank 55th of 64. Our current -.64% MTD close and our current -1.84% monthly low are in the "mushy" middle.
Good morning
Here's a visual representation of where our current January 2024 stands in relation to the previous 63 years of Januaries.
2024 is highlighted in Blue. Our current monthly high of .68% would rank 55th of 64. Our current -.64% MTD close and our current -1.84% monthly low are in the "mushy" middle.
JTH
Well-known member
Friday
Good morning
It’s Friday and after the weekly bulk of negative news, what would make for a great story as we enter the weekend?
How About if the S&P 500 closed today at .79% then we'll have breached our All Time Highs….
___
TLDR: Large caps flat, Small caps & Sectors weaker.
___
This week the large caps Top-10 are contributing the bulk of the YTD gains for the Index, contrasted by the S&P 500’s Equal Weighted index being down -2.04% YTD. Buyers stepped up to Apple with a 3.26% gain on Thursday. Tesla continues to get sold, from the December top it’s dipped -21.27%
___
Our VXF ETF (serving as a proxy for the S-Fund) has updated its holdings. As you might suspect, this week the scores are weaker. Entering the S&P 500, Uber has left us for greener pastures.
___
Per the usual, the Tech Sector & Communication Services continue to keep us elevated while the other sectors struggle to gain a foothold. The Tech SPDR ETF XLK is at its All Time Highs…
Good morning
It’s Friday and after the weekly bulk of negative news, what would make for a great story as we enter the weekend?
How About if the S&P 500 closed today at .79% then we'll have breached our All Time Highs….
___
TLDR: Large caps flat, Small caps & Sectors weaker.
___
This week the large caps Top-10 are contributing the bulk of the YTD gains for the Index, contrasted by the S&P 500’s Equal Weighted index being down -2.04% YTD. Buyers stepped up to Apple with a 3.26% gain on Thursday. Tesla continues to get sold, from the December top it’s dipped -21.27%
___
Our VXF ETF (serving as a proxy for the S-Fund) has updated its holdings. As you might suspect, this week the scores are weaker. Entering the S&P 500, Uber has left us for greener pastures.
___
Per the usual, the Tech Sector & Communication Services continue to keep us elevated while the other sectors struggle to gain a foothold. The Tech SPDR ETF XLK is at its All Time Highs…
JTH
Well-known member
Re: Wenesday
A close above 4796.57 would make for the highest daily close.
A close above 4796.57 would make for the highest daily close.
JTH
Well-known member
Re: Wenesday
Good Afternoon
While the C & I Funds have an equal 27-day 63% win ratio, it’s the C-fund which has pulled in the most gains.
___
Further illustrated on the 1 to 27 day performance table, it’s the C-Fund dominating all other funds.
___
As you might expect, our Top-50 is 98% allocated to the C-Fund, but since this is a YTD perspective, these allocations could change rapidly as we progress through the year.
__
During the week our C-Fund didn’t give the pullback I wanted so I settled for a partial 5% entry into the F-Fund. With the limited flexibility of our TSP funds, I just won’t commit to buying at the top of this range. If we don’t get a sizable retracement, then at worst, I’ll take another partial entry before the end of month.
Have a great week!
Good Afternoon
While the C & I Funds have an equal 27-day 63% win ratio, it’s the C-fund which has pulled in the most gains.
___
Further illustrated on the 1 to 27 day performance table, it’s the C-Fund dominating all other funds.
___
As you might expect, our Top-50 is 98% allocated to the C-Fund, but since this is a YTD perspective, these allocations could change rapidly as we progress through the year.
__
During the week our C-Fund didn’t give the pullback I wanted so I settled for a partial 5% entry into the F-Fund. With the limited flexibility of our TSP funds, I just won’t commit to buying at the top of this range. If we don’t get a sizable retracement, then at worst, I’ll take another partial entry before the end of month.
Have a great week!
JTH
Well-known member
Re: Wenesday
Good morning
Friday ended our Bear Market Recovery. For myself the percentage decline of a Bear Market is of little value, but the time it takes to recover from the decline is of great value.
Yellow Tab: Jan-Oct 2022 gave us a -27.54% Bear Market decline across 195-sessions or .78 Years. It’s taken us 1.27 years to recover from this loss and 2.05 years to recover the previous highs.
Red Tab: Thankfully for us, our most recent Bear Market was somewhat shallow. The 2000-2002 bear market lost half its value and took 7.34 years to recover the previous highs. Adding insult to injury, 3 months later we began the 2007-2009 Bear Market.
___
TLDR: Long-term Linear Regression suggests it’s a better time to sell vs. buy.
Taking us 318 sessions back to the beginning of the Bear Market recovery, Linear Regression shows we are slightly overbought. A drop back down to 4669.95 (Fair Value Midpoint) would cost us -3.51%.
Conversely, a rise to the upside at 4914.10 is a 1.53% gain (Yellow SD 2 R line). At this SD 2 R level we would be very overbought (within the 95% probability of where prices are expected to be contained).
___
I’ve updated the Fibonacci levels. From this perspective we can see under-performance in the lower right VXF chart. In theory, if small caps get a seasonal bid, this would be the better value.
Thanks for reading... Jason
Good morning
Friday ended our Bear Market Recovery. For myself the percentage decline of a Bear Market is of little value, but the time it takes to recover from the decline is of great value.
Yellow Tab: Jan-Oct 2022 gave us a -27.54% Bear Market decline across 195-sessions or .78 Years. It’s taken us 1.27 years to recover from this loss and 2.05 years to recover the previous highs.
Red Tab: Thankfully for us, our most recent Bear Market was somewhat shallow. The 2000-2002 bear market lost half its value and took 7.34 years to recover the previous highs. Adding insult to injury, 3 months later we began the 2007-2009 Bear Market.
___
TLDR: Long-term Linear Regression suggests it’s a better time to sell vs. buy.
Taking us 318 sessions back to the beginning of the Bear Market recovery, Linear Regression shows we are slightly overbought. A drop back down to 4669.95 (Fair Value Midpoint) would cost us -3.51%.
Conversely, a rise to the upside at 4914.10 is a 1.53% gain (Yellow SD 2 R line). At this SD 2 R level we would be very overbought (within the 95% probability of where prices are expected to be contained).
___
I’ve updated the Fibonacci levels. From this perspective we can see under-performance in the lower right VXF chart. In theory, if small caps get a seasonal bid, this would be the better value.
Thanks for reading... Jason
JTH
Well-known member
Thursday
Good morning
Going back 59-sessions to the Oct-2024 lows, the linear regression channel shows potential room to the upside. In fact (from this time/price LR perspective) we could argue we're under fair value. SD 1 R (Standard Deviation 1 Resistance) sits at 4952.81, from our current close that’s a 2.33% gain.
___
Compared with the previous 63-years, our January 2024 is currently above the average-of-all closes.
___
Trading day-15 closed positive with a 1.99% MTD gain.
From the previous 21-years a positive day-15, closed the month up 10 times for an average 3.88% gain, or closed down the month down 3 times for an average -1.33% loss.
Have fun
Good morning
Going back 59-sessions to the Oct-2024 lows, the linear regression channel shows potential room to the upside. In fact (from this time/price LR perspective) we could argue we're under fair value. SD 1 R (Standard Deviation 1 Resistance) sits at 4952.81, from our current close that’s a 2.33% gain.
___
Compared with the previous 63-years, our January 2024 is currently above the average-of-all closes.
___
Trading day-15 closed positive with a 1.99% MTD gain.
From the previous 21-years a positive day-15, closed the month up 10 times for an average 3.88% gain, or closed down the month down 3 times for an average -1.33% loss.
Have fun
JTH
Well-known member
Friday
Good morning
TLDR: Large caps strongest, Small caps gain strength, Sectors partially gain strength. I’ll speculate the relationships between Large & Small caps and with Sectors won’t rotate much until we get some clarity with the interest rate cuts.
Per the usual, it’s largely a continuation of 2023, (highlighted in red) the S&P 500’s Equal-Weighted Index is down -.27% YTD. Tesla continues to flounder, while Broadcom enters the Top-10.
While Small Caps have picked up strength, both VXF & R2K are down YTD, and we’ve yet to see any consistent “traditional” seasonal rotation. Traditionally they begin to outperform as early as November & as late as June, but It’s possible this won’t happen this year, or that it won’t happen until we get closer to our first interest rate cut.
For the Sectors, Tech (with its 30% weighting) continues to dominate & lead. Health Care took a recent hit as did Consumer Discretionary.
Just 4 more trading Days in January, have a great weekend!
Good morning
TLDR: Large caps strongest, Small caps gain strength, Sectors partially gain strength. I’ll speculate the relationships between Large & Small caps and with Sectors won’t rotate much until we get some clarity with the interest rate cuts.
Per the usual, it’s largely a continuation of 2023, (highlighted in red) the S&P 500’s Equal-Weighted Index is down -.27% YTD. Tesla continues to flounder, while Broadcom enters the Top-10.
While Small Caps have picked up strength, both VXF & R2K are down YTD, and we’ve yet to see any consistent “traditional” seasonal rotation. Traditionally they begin to outperform as early as November & as late as June, but It’s possible this won’t happen this year, or that it won’t happen until we get closer to our first interest rate cut.
For the Sectors, Tech (with its 30% weighting) continues to dominate & lead. Health Care took a recent hit as did Consumer Discretionary.
Just 4 more trading Days in January, have a great weekend!
JTH
Well-known member
Sunday
Good afternoon
Across the past 27 sessions our C-Fund is running strong, while the F-Fund is the weakest.
Aside from Friday's -.07% close, the C-Fund is a sea of green on the 1-27 day performance table.
As you might imagine, the Top-300 are largely invested in the C-Fund, while the Bottom-300 are predominantly G-Funders.
For myself, the 5% allocation into the F-Fund yielded -.06% across the past 7 sessions. Nothing looks too appetizing at the moment, but It’s likely I’ll do another partial allocation before the month ends.
Have a great week!
Good afternoon
Across the past 27 sessions our C-Fund is running strong, while the F-Fund is the weakest.
Aside from Friday's -.07% close, the C-Fund is a sea of green on the 1-27 day performance table.
As you might imagine, the Top-300 are largely invested in the C-Fund, while the Bottom-300 are predominantly G-Funders.
For myself, the 5% allocation into the F-Fund yielded -.06% across the past 7 sessions. Nothing looks too appetizing at the moment, but It’s likely I’ll do another partial allocation before the month ends.
Have a great week!
JTH
Well-known member
Monday
Good morning
From the past 11 sessions, Monday is the strongest gainer (last 4 closed up), While Thur & Fri have the strongest win ratios. Tue is average leaving Wed as the weakest day of the week. Gap correlation is strong in both directions, meaning the Index has been closing in the direction of the opening gap 90.9% of the time.
___
It’s been some time since we’ve seen a meaningful pullback, from the Oct-2023 bottom the strongest retracement is a shallow -2.22%. From these past 62 sessions we are 1.55% below Linear Regression Fair Value (middle line or line of best fit) at 4914.61
Something to keep in mind, when January closes positive, February performs better….
Good morning
From the past 11 sessions, Monday is the strongest gainer (last 4 closed up), While Thur & Fri have the strongest win ratios. Tue is average leaving Wed as the weakest day of the week. Gap correlation is strong in both directions, meaning the Index has been closing in the direction of the opening gap 90.9% of the time.
___
It’s been some time since we’ve seen a meaningful pullback, from the Oct-2023 bottom the strongest retracement is a shallow -2.22%. From these past 62 sessions we are 1.55% below Linear Regression Fair Value (middle line or line of best fit) at 4914.61
Something to keep in mind, when January closes positive, February performs better….
JTH
Well-known member
Tuesday
Good morning
Here’s a quick look at the long-term Linear Regression Chart going back 324 sessions to the October 2022 Bear Market Bottom. We are currently -4.60% above Fair Value, and it’s a short .43% climb to Standard Deviation 2 Resistance (SD 2 R) a “Very” Overbought condition where 95% of the price range is expected to reside within.
Good morning
Here’s a quick look at the long-term Linear Regression Chart going back 324 sessions to the October 2022 Bear Market Bottom. We are currently -4.60% above Fair Value, and it’s a short .43% climb to Standard Deviation 2 Resistance (SD 2 R) a “Very” Overbought condition where 95% of the price range is expected to reside within.
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