JTH's Account Talk

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Birchtree said:
JTH,

What's for lunch? If you hear the sound of the woosh don't be concerned it will not harm you, it's only me moving into the 154 slot.
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Considering this has been a buy & hold year, I'd be more concerned for you if you didn't pass me up...
 
Bquat said:
No, I agree. This could be just a pop because of the jobs report until they realize, good news is bad news for QE. Do you agree with me?;)
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I agree with you (coming from me - perhaps not a good sign):

That jobs number - like the last few - seems very screwy and off; and probably will be revised downwards. I suspect the DOL is having some QC issues with their numbers, possibly related to the furlough/sequester and effect on staffing. 200K+ in October? with the furlough and related contractors putting people on the sidelines? No way. The unemployment rate will also be revised (downwards) - and if it is real will retreat from the furlough effect, in November-December (though possibly confounded by seasonals).

The GDP seems to be the bottom line (surprised high and likely real); so yes, QE coming sooner rather than later = a few days out for me as well. Unlike JTH, I'm cutting losses due to a weak entry point ~10/30, not holding gains.
 
JTH said:
100G EoB Today
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JTH,

I follow you recommendations closely and agree with your analysis.. In fact, based on the technicals I follow (S&P and VIX), I would have moved some of my TSP to the G fund this morning, however, after seeing the runup this morning, I didn't move anything and held tight. This market is crazy..
 
JTH said:
Under current circumstances I'd be hard-pressed to think the bottom is in, anyone disagree?
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No telling, in my opinion as well. Ive seen a few recent Novembers be a bit on the volatile side so more bumpiness would not surprise me.

I decided to stay in (100% S) because I have no more IFTs and I think that even if a 2-5% dip occurs we may still be higher on Dec 1, so I will go for the ride.

When QE tapering becomes the hot talk I will strongly consider bailing.
 
hotwings said:
JTH,

I follow you recommendations closely and agree with your analysis.. In fact, based on the technicals I follow (S&P and VIX), I would have moved some of my TSP to the G fund this morning, however, after seeing the runup this morning, I didn't move anything and held tight. This market is crazy..
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Congrats, you definitely made the right choice, it was good to see a strong retracement. I had actually wanted to make an exit on Wednesday, but I changed my game plan and it ended up costing me.
 
MrBowl said:
No telling, in my opinion as well. Ive seen a few recent Novembers be a bit on the volatile side so more bumpiness would not surprise me.

I decided to stay in (100% S) because I have no more IFTs and I think that even if a 2-5% dip occurs we may still be higher on Dec 1, so I will go for the ride.

When QE tapering becomes the hot talk I will strongly consider bailing.
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I feel for you, I still have 1 IFT which is why I chose to make the exit, too bad I missed out on the pop, but good for you that you didn't. :D My original plan was to exit on Wednesday and jump back in on Tuesday, this was based on my seasonal analysis. Normally I would use my systems for timing, but they are between signals, so I was going to take the seasonal approach.
 
rktect1 said:
No. Going up through december.

trying to time the next two months can end up costing you. Jmho.
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Lol, at this point your JMHO is fact, I've only out-IFT'd the S-Fund twice this year (that I recall) all other times it was the wrong decision to make. The S-Fund had a 9% lead on me that is now turned into a 11% lead.
 
JTH said:
Lol, at this point your JMHO is fact, I've only out-IFT'd the S-Fund twice this year (that I recall) all other times it was the wrong decision to make. The S-Fund had a 9% lead on me that is now turned into a 11% lead.
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This years market timing has been steam rolled. I figure i will just sit in the soup and wait for a reason to exit. Its a bit frustrating when buy and hold has 10% on you.
 
love-to-bike said:
Are you buys always short term moves? Thanks...
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They shouldn't be, but yes they are basically just scalps for the time being. USAA charges 8.95 for the 1st 25 trades within a 90 day period, if you get 25 trades within that time, your cost goes down to 5.95
I'm trying to whittle down my cost basis.
 
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