JTH's Account Talk

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JTH said:
Are you expecting some news or an earnings report?
Click to expand...

10/31/2013 - Stock has been trading in confirmed uptrend and Momentum and MACD indicators confirm short term bullish trend
10/31/2013 - Stock trades 10% below its intrinsic value and most analysts have a BUY recommendation
10/31/2013 - Earnings beat analysts estimates and PFG was able to grow its earnings 43% in the past 3 quarters
 
jkenjohnson said:
10/31/2013 - Stock has been trading in confirmed uptrend and Momentum and MACD indicators confirm short term bullish trend
10/31/2013 - Stock trades 10% below its intrinsic value and most analysts have a BUY recommendation
10/31/2013 - Earnings beat analysts estimates and PFG was able to grow its earnings 43% in the past 3 quarters
Click to expand...

Thanks, I put it on my watch list this morning.
 
The big question for the week, is the top in? On Oct 29th my stats/indicators peaked and have pulled back since this time, but prices have held up better than expected. I realize lots of folks are making the case it's time for a pullback, I'll counter-trend that assessment by making the case the data is not definitive in either direction, hence I'm neutral. Why am I neutral? Statistically we are not overbought within the 1-23 day price performance, within the bollinger bands we've pulled back, the 64/128/256-day high/low range has pulled back, my Quad indicators have pulled back, we got a bounce off the 20SMA, and the major indexes have not retraced more than 23.6% off the Fibonacci levels. The weekly charts all closed within the green. Seasonality is in our favor, ratio wise the remainder of the year has a positive bias. Bottom line, while we have been pulling back, we haven't had a sharp decline substantiated with a sharp increase in negative volume, so I'll keep an open mind until more data comes in.

View attachment 25820

On Oct 29th the 1-day through 14-day PP (price performance) was in the top 10% (covering the last 20 years of daily prices.) Since October 1993 this event has occurred 10 times with many of those times showing the 1-day through 23-day PP was in the top 10 percentile. This means there is still room to the upside before the 1-day through 23-day PP stats get into the top 10 percentile.

View attachment 25822

As a cautionary note, The last time this event occurred was 27 Oct 2011 and resulted in an immediate pullback, with a recovery bounce, followed by a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

View attachment 25821

In addition, the 64-day, 128-day and 256-day high/low range closed at 100% This means prices closed at the top of their range within those time frames. Over the last 5061 trading days this has occurred 144 times, sometimes this event marks a top, while other times it's a sign of upside embedded price action. Below, I've marked those events over the last year.

View attachment 25825

Take the data for what it is, as you can see, we can make the case for the bulls or the bears, for me it's better to sit back and let the story unfold while remaining in the S-Fund for the time being. I would like to make an exit into the G-Fund this month but only if I think I can gain an edge against the markets by doing so. Thus far this year I have been largely unsuccessful in this endeavor but having accepted this fact has made me a better trader, so either ways it's a win/win for me.

Trade safe...Jason
 
JTH said:
The big question for the week, is the top in? On Oct 29th my stats/indicators peaked and have pulled back since this time, but prices have held up better than expected. I realize lots of folks are making the case it's time for a pullback, I'll counter-trend that assessment by making the case the data is not definitive in either direction, hence I'm neutral. Why am I neutral? Statistically we are not overbought within the 1-23 day price performance, within the bollinger bands we've pulled back, the 64/128/256-day high/low range has pulled back, my Quad indicators have pulled back, we got a bounce off the 20SMA, and the major indexes have not retraced more than 23.6% off the Fibonacci levels. The weekly charts all closed within the green.
Click to expand...

Correction, the Wilshire 4500 did close the week in the red.
 
I've requested post #5075 be deleted, my excel sheet got corrupted, reversing some of the percentages, the price performance stats were inaccurate by a large margin. I've double checked the stats posted in my signature block, they are all correct.
 
The big question for the week, is the top in? On Oct 29th my stats/indicators peaked and have pulled back since this time, but prices have held up better than expected. I realize lots of folks are making the case it's time for a pullback, I'll counter-trend that assessment by making the case the data is not definitive in either direction, hence I'm neutral. Why am I neutral? The 64/128/256-day high/low range has pulled back, my Quad indicators have pulled back, we got a bounce off the 20SMA, and the major indexes have not retraced more than 23.6% off the Fibonacci levels. The weekly SPX/Tran charts closed in the green. Seasonality is in our favor, ratio wise the remainder of the year has a positive bias. Bottom line, while we have been pulling back, we haven't had a sharp decline substantiated with a sharp increase in negative volume, so I'll keep an open mind until more data comes in.

View attachment 25820

The 64-day, 128-day and 256-day high/low range closed at 100% This means prices closed at the top of their range within those time frames. Over the last 5061 trading days this has occurred 144 times, sometimes this event marks a top, while other times it's a sign of upside embedded price action. Below, I've marked those events over the last year.

View attachment 25825

Take the data for what it is, as you can see, we can make the case for the bulls or the bears, for me it's better to sit back and let the story unfold while remaining in the S-Fund for the time being. I would like to make an exit into the G-Fund this month but only if I think I can gain an edge against the markets by doing so. Thus far this year I have been largely unsuccessful in this endeavor but having accepted this fact has made me a better trader, so either ways it's a win/win for me.

Update/Correction: Earlier I posted some incorrect data. The Price performance stats are inline with typical price action during a routine upwave, the 17-day & 18 day price performance is within the top 10 percentile (covering the last 20 years.)

View attachment 25828

Trade safe...Jason
 
WARNING: The Friday & Monday Indicator has been triggered!

When both Friday & Monday close up, the indicator is triggered, when this event occurs, statistics favor a higher close on Thursday than Monday (or Tuesday if Monday is a holiday in which case Thursday gets pushed to Friday.) Over the last 20 occurrences, this event has been correct 75% of the time. Tuesday & Wednesday have a 75% & 70% winning ratio, of the last 20 events, the 5-day price performance of Friday-Thursday has been positive 85% of the time.

View attachment 25837View attachment 25836

View attachment 25838
 
JTH...that's a great stat especially since I was thinking about bailing not knowing which direction the RSI is headed...the question is...what is the statistical performance on the Friday a week after a Friday-Monday positive? To put it another way...if the RSI is close to 70 are you considering an IFT COB Thursday? How do the Friday stats pan out? Thanks for all the great posts.
 
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