JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

JTH...that's a great stat especially since I was thinking about bailing not knowing which direction the RSI is headed...the question is...what is the statistical performance on the Friday a week after a Friday-Monday positive? To put it another way...if the RSI is close to 70 are you considering an IFT COB Thursday? How do the Friday stats pan out? Thanks for all the great posts.

In regards to your first question, 13 of the last 20 closed up. I do not track the RSI, so I cannot speak to those stats. What I will say is that based on a multitude of indicators I track, I estimate we are about 85% overbought, I can see cranking out another 2.20% (SPX 1788) by this Friday.

 

[Birchtree]

Don'ty worry about the RSI until it reaches the 80 lervel and stays there for an indeterminate amount of time. The market is technucally ready for a big run into next summer.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

WARNING: The Friday & Monday Indicator has been triggered!

When both Friday & Monday close up, the indicator is triggered, when this event occurs, statistics favor a higher close on Thursday than Monday (or Tuesday if Monday is a holiday in which case Thursday gets pushed to Friday.) Over the last 20 occurrences, this event has been correct 75% of the time. Tuesday & Wednesday have a 75% & 70% winning ratio, of the last 20 events, the 5-day price performance of Friday-Thursday has been positive 85% of the time.

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Wow! You are an incredible statastician! Very interesting stats.

 

[law87]

JTH, you are such a robot, I meant that in a good way. Your thread is more entertaining (and informative) than somes who just post what they buy or boring articles, thanks! You and IT have my deepest respect.

 

[JTH]

JTH, you are such a robot, I meant that in a good way. Your thread is more entertaining (and informative) than somes who just post what they buy or boring articles, thanks! You and IT have my deepest respect.

Thank you, I see IT got 6.03% in October, he nailed it! As for this particular stat, I would like to point out that as with most stats, the further you go back, the more the stats even out. Using the last 20 events shows it's the "hot hand" but if you go back further 40-100 events, it becomes a 50/50 proposition. If the stats hadn't been as good as they were (or pointed to something else interesting) I wouldn't have posted the data.

 

[JTH]

Ouch what's up with the futures...

 

[nnuut]

Ouch what's up with the futures...

Turn around Tuesday? Europe!

 

[JTH]

I'm a little bummed out, the market's have just been flopping around without much commitment in either direction and it's getting boring. Having posted the Friday & Monday Up indicator, I was disappointment with today's results, so I dug into the stats to see what Wednesday looks like when Friday & Monday are up while Tuesday is down.

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[law87]

I'm a little bummed out, the market's have just been flopping around without much commitment in either direction and it's getting boring. Having posted the Friday & Monday Up indicator, I was disappointment with today's results, so I dug into the stats to see what Wednesday looks like when Friday & Monday are up while Tuesday is down.

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graph is confusing the heck out of me...whats the X-axis and Y-axis?

 

[JTH]

graph is confusing the heck out of me...whats the X-axis and Y-axis?

Thanks for pointing that out, you probably aren't the only one wondering that, so I'll find a way to clean/clarify it. Those are the returns for each of those 20 Wednesdays, reading like a stock chart with the most recent on the right.

 

[JimmyJoe]

Thanks for pointing that out, you probably aren't the only one wondering that, so I'll find a way to clean/clarify it. Those are the returns for each of those 20 Wednesdays, reading like a stock chart with the most recent on the right.

Tomorrow, Wednesday, the futures are way up to coincide with your chart.

 

[JTH]

30 October 2013 - Bought STP @ 1.32

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I was ahead on this trade but then got stopped out on the flush @ 1.16

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[JTH]

100G EoB Today

 

[JTH]

I was ahead on this trade but then got stopped out on the flush @ 1.16

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And this my friend is why we have stops...

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[JTH]

Bummer, the Friday & Monday Up Indicator failed, that's twice in a row

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[JTH]

Under current circumstances I'd be hard-pressed to think the bottom is in, anyone disagree?

 

[jkenjohnson]

Under current circumstances I'd be hard-pressed to think the bottom is in, anyone disagree?

Agree.

 

[Khotso]

Under current circumstances I'd be hard-pressed to think the bottom is in, anyone disagree?

Yeah, but only because I'm still 50%S and 20%C!!!! Looking to bail to G today (should have on Monday when I actually though about it), but ...

 

[Birchtree]

JTH,

What's for lunch? If you hear the sound of the woosh don't be concerned it will not harm you, it's only me moving into the 154 slot.

 

[Bquat]

Under current circumstances I'd be hard-pressed to think the bottom is in, anyone disagree?

No, I agree. This could be just a pop because of the jobs report until they realize, good news is bad news for QE. Do you agree with me?