JTH's Account Talk

[jkenjohnson]

Ok. So.. After seeing all the pain you folks have weathered together, i went and bought 200 shares of this TZA.

now what?

we have to wait on a bear rally?

Exactly.

 

[rktect1]

So far so good

Too bad all the rest of my money is now in free fall

 

[JTH]

I've been driving the same 20 year old truck (with no AC) for the past 10 years, this Texas sun is getting too hot and I'm getting too old to be sweating my azz off everyday. I'm taking out a TSP loan to spend about 8-9K for a decent used vehicle. I'm only saying this because I may move everything into the G-Fund until the funds settle.

IFT EoB today 100G

 

[PLANO]

You can use the bank's money to buy that vehicle for pretty cheap (USAA is 1.99% to 2.25% for used). That's a lot cheaper rate than what you'll lose by not having the money invested in your TSP...don't you think?

 

[JTH]

You can use the bank's money to buy that vehicle for pretty cheap (USAA is 1.99% to 2.25% for used). That's a lot cheaper rate than what you'll lose by not having the money invested in your TSP...don't you think?

I understand where your comming from, you are right, the majority of us should not be taking loans from our TSP. My ROTH IRA is my primary account I'm throwing all my money in. I'd rather loan the money from myself than USAA, I don't like USAA's loan department, they have never offered me the rates I wanted when I wanted them. I'm funny like that, if you **** me off once, then you're dead to me. TSP is offering 2.25% what I don't spend on a car will be added to my ROTH IRA, and with that money I can beat 2.25%

 

[Frixxxx]

...TSP is offering 2.25% what I don't spend on a car will be added to my ROTH IRA, and with that money I can beat 2.25%

If you take out $10000 and pay back the 2.25% it's $225 cost. If you miss a 40% rise during that time you lost $4000 in growth. If you miss 10%, then $1000. But if you miss any negative growth...then you actually win!

Your money JTH, Your choice......

 

[PLANO]

If you take out $10000 and pay back the 2.25% it's $225 cost. If you miss a 40% rise during that time you lost $4000 in growth. If you miss 10%, then $1000. But if you miss any negative growth...then you actually win!

Your money JTH, Your choice......

Right, it was the "opportunity cost" I was referring to...what you could make with that money in your account while using the bank's money (whichever bank you like) at a very cheap rate.

 

[GUCHI]

I understand where your comming from, you are right, the majority of us should not be taking loans from our TSP. My ROTH IRA is my primary account I'm throwing all my money in. I'd rather loan the money from myself than USAA, I don't like USAA's loan department, they have never offered me the rates I wanted when I wanted them. I'm funny like that, if you **** me off once, then you're dead to me. TSP is offering 2.25% what I don't spend on a car will be added to my ROTH IRA, and with that money I can beat 2.25%

JTH
maybe im looking at this wrong but anyway . i took a tsp loan 5 years on 3/23/11 and have been paying it back ever since. i feel like with my normal contributions and my loan payment im getting more shares than normally with my loan at this time. my account balance has been growing in leaps and bounds. with that said my account has increased by $62000 since the loan started. i am eligible to retire this March but loan will not be satisfied till 3/11/16. so i will probably stay on till the following jan 2015 and either pay it off at that time or bite the bullit and get caught with 10% penalty. i also plan to leave it alone when i retire and let it ride with equities if the bull is still running then. what say you MB,wise or not???? thanks for any and all comments.

 

[JTH]

If you take out $10000 and pay back the 2.25% it's $225 cost. If you miss a 40% rise during that time you lost $4000 in growth. If you miss 10%, then $1000. But if you miss any negative growth...then you actually win!

Your money JTH, Your choice......

Yes it is my money and my choice but that doesn't mean it's a stupid decision. It's been a while since we've had this discussion, so I'll recap. When the IFT limitations went into effect, I stopped using TSP as my primary retirement vehicle, stopped contributing to it and switched over to a ROTH IRA. In 2008 I took out a large TSP loan to pay off my debts, given the bear market, it was a wise choice. Since that time I have been dedicated to the ROTH.

As for the TSP, it will provide some supplemental income, but if it were my choice I would have closed the account and rolled it into the ROTH, but I can't close the account without taking a tax penalty, so I'm stuck with TSP as a tool.

 

[99percent]

Yes it is my money and my choice but that doesn't mean it's a stupid decision. It's been a while since we've had this discussion, so I'll recap. When the IFT limitations went into effect, I stopped using TSP as my primary retirement vehicle, stopped contributing to it and switched over to a ROTH IRA. In 2008 I took out a large TSP loan to pay off my debts, given the bear market, it was a wise choice. Since that time I have been dedicated to the ROTH.

As for the TSP, it will provide some supplemental income, but if it were my choice I would have closed the account and rolled it into the ROTH, but I can't close the account without taking a tax penalty, so I'm stuck with TSP as a tool.

Oh JTH... you're not a tool. :toung:

 

[JTH]

Thus far the Triple Top Breakout has been a dud and once again we see the 1684 pivot getting tested. Across the Indexes and within my systems, I haven't seen a strong sign of a top or bottom. If you read my thread, then you've seen the August seasonality average daily percentile chart and you know these first 2 weeks tend to be weak.

View attachment 24809

 

[amoeba]

FWIW (don't take this as a bad sign, since I'm mostly wrong): I agree - I think the indices will test modestly lower support levels in the next week or so; unsure beyond that; I'll keep other musings to my account talk thread.

 

[JTH]

FWIW (don't take this as a bad sign, since I'm mostly wrong): I agree - I think the indices will test modestly lower support levels in the next week or so; unsure beyond that; I'll keep other musings to my account talk thread.

Thanks for dropping in. At this juncture I'm not prepared to pick a direction, 1684 is my key level and since I'm in the G-Fund at this time, I see no catalysis for jumping in.

 

[JTH]

The 1684 pivot holds. While price has been stabilizing, my internals show the markets have been pulling back over the last 3 days.

View attachment 24892

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Jason,

Thanks for the years of great information, yet another must read thread on this board. Your TA and insight was always a great read...

Good luck !!

-RMI

 

[JTH]

Jason,

Thanks for the years of great information, yet another must read thread on this board. Your TA and insight was always a great read...

Good luck !!

-RMI

No problem, see ya after your sabbatical...

 

[JTH]

1684 has now been violated...

View attachment 24925

 

[burrocrat]

over the next 5 trading days, if the market drops, which do you think is more likely? another 2-3% slow bleed or a 6-7% slaughter?

and would it be short-term playable? or do you think maybe the top and enthusiasim has been nipped in the bud for a while?

i've only made 1 round turn trade this year and am looking for another jump in and out, but something feels funny about this one.

 

[JTH]

over the next 5 trading days, if the market drops, which do you think is more likely? another 2-3% slow bleed or a 6-7% slaughter?

and would it be short-term playable? or do you think maybe the top and enthusiasim has been nipped in the bud for a while?

i've only made 1 round turn trade this year and am looking for another jump in and out, but something feels funny about this one.

It's a tough call, I expect this Friday to be a flat-subdued day, followed by more downside on Monday. In the scheme of things I'm looking for a potential 1615-1635 pullback. I do have one very reliable system that triggered a buy today, but I'm thinking it may trigger another buy within the next few days and that will be the buy signal to follow.

 

[amoeba]

It's a tough call, I expect this Friday to be a flat-subdued day, followed by more downside on Monday. In the scheme of things I'm looking for a potential 1615-1635 pullback. I do have one very reliable system that triggered a buy today, but I'm thinking it may trigger another buy within the next few days and that will be the buy signal to follow.

I'm looking at a couple factors, not all related (like Egypt news? it has contributed to gyrations in the markets before); not sure yet ----- it depends on monday more than today -----although today's volume is pretty good, and bond prices seem to be in an unstoppable free fall.

Feeling much more comfortable out than in right now.