JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

It's a tough call, I expect this Friday to be a flat-subdued day, followed by more downside on Monday. In the scheme of things I'm looking for a potential 1615-1635 pullback. I do have one very reliable system that triggered a buy today, but I'm thinking it may trigger another buy within the next few days and that will be the buy signal to follow.

As expected, another buy signal was triggered today, but be warned, when a down Monday follows a down Friday, it almost always leads to lower prices within Tue-Fri.

This could be the pullback, there are three items of interest I'd like to point out.

#1 We put in a small but noticeable double top @ 1698.78/1698.38.

#2 As of now, 1684 is the key pivot, we can see we've bounced off this level 3 times and are presently working through this level. A close below 1684 increases potential to trigger a sell off.

#3 We have 4 unfilled gaps, a 50% retracement of this upwave would fill all 4 gaps. For me, this increases the potential for a 50% retracement down to the 1630 level.

We now have 2 unfilled gaps...

View attachment 24958

 

[rktect1]

Didn't know where else to post this. I learned about tza here so....

bought 300 shares of tza not very long ago. Probably within two weeks for about $25 and sold today for $27.50.
9.5%. Doesn't meme me rich but I'm pretty happy about it
it so thx for the advice

 

[JTH]

Didn't know where else to post this. I learned about tza here so....

bought 300 shares of tza not very long ago. Probably within two weeks for about $25 and sold today for $27.50.
9.5%. Doesn't meme me rich but I'm pretty happy about it
it so thx for the advice

Glad to see you exited with a tidy profit!

As for myself, I'm under in TZA 13.93% with the long postions AMD/LXRX under 3-4% trading sideways.

 

[JTH]

I cannot at this time recommend a buy under current conditions, within the S&P 500 the pre-lunch appearance of a positive reversal ended the day retracing 50% of the day's gains. My Quad-Sys hasn't confirmed the previous 2 buy signals and my volume measurements have not lead me to believe the bottom is in. IMHO this was nothing more than an oversold bounce without the conviction to overturn the bears.

View attachment 24975

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I cannot at this time recommend a buy under current conditions, within the S&P 500 the pre-lunch appearance of a positive reversal ended the day retracing 50% of the day's gains. My Quad-Sys hasn't confirmed the previous 2 buy signals and my volume measurements have not lead me to believe the bottom is in. IMHO this was nothing more than an oversold bounce without the conviction to overturn the bears.

Agree. I'd need to see much more positive evidence in the technical indicators to convince me this down wave is nearing an end. Eventually it WILL end, but I don't believe we're there yet.

 

[JTH]

We now have 3 of 4 gaps filled...

View attachment 24986

 

[rcknfrewld]

is there a logical reason why the gaps get filled...do they always get filled...and what exactly causes the gaps...i always thought it was where the market opened compared to the previous close...

 

[Sensei]

is there a logical reason why the gaps get filled...do they always get filled...and what exactly causes the gaps...i always thought it was where the market opened compared to the previous close...

A gap happens when day 2's low is higher than day 1's high (gap up), or when day 2's high is lower than day 1's low (gap down). My understanding, at least.

I think gap fills (and most other tendencies in TA) are basically self-fulfilling prophecies. Traders see a gap in the charts and they wait for it to get filled before doing any heavy buying or selling. Again, just my own understanding/opinion.

 

[JTH]

is there a logical reason why the gaps get filled...do they always get filled...and what exactly causes the gaps...i always thought it was where the market opened compared to the previous close...

Gaps unto themselves have an entirely different set of trading rules. They don't work on all charts & indexes, I find the ones with higher & consistent volume tend to work the best. For the purpose of this forum, I tend to focus on the S&P 500's gaps because they tend to get filled. Some indexes such as the NASDAQ are consistently gappy to the point they cry wolf much too often to, so I ignore it. Timeframes are also important, for me (and how I trade) I like to watch gaps on the 30 minute charts. I don't like to reference Wiki, but if it's right, it's right no matter what the source.

View attachment 24988
Gap (chart pattern) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[remark]

We now have 3 of 4 gaps filled...

View attachment 24986

JTH - I'm curious - What's your thoughts/insights about the upper gap at around 1684?

Thanks in advance! Kevin

 

[JTH]

JTH - I'm curious - What's your thoughts/insights about the upper gap at around 1684?

Thanks in advance! Kevin

In general, if it doesn't get filled within the first 5 days, then it's a stong indicator of the prevailing direction (in this case down.)

 

[JTH]

IFT Eob Today 34G/66S

 

[JTH]

We now have 3 of 4 gaps filled...

4 of 4 gaps filled, price objective met, we now have 2 gaps to the upside...

View attachment 25038

 

[Dutchy]

JTH, Please explain; I'm thinking to the 2 upside gaps you mentioned in below post would bring us back to 1660 area ?? Thanks.

 

[JTH]

1685 Fills both gaps this could happen within the next 3-5 days

QUOTE=Dutchy;420745]JTH, Please explain; I'm thinking to the 2 upside gaps you mentioned in below post would bring us back to 1660 area ?? Thanks.[/QUOTE]

'

 

[Dutchy]

JTH....1685 Fills both gaps this could happen within the next 3-5 days

Thanks JTH... That is a very hopeful sign !! Others have posted a rally to 1650-1660 area before we sink again.. Hope you're right!

 

[JTH]

This could be the pullback, there are three items of interest I'd like to point out.

#1 We put in a small but noticeable double top @ 1698.78/1698.38.

#2 As of now, 1684 is the key pivot, we can see we've bounced off this level 3 times and are presently working through this level. A close below 1684 increases potential to trigger a sell off.

#3 We have 4 unfilled gaps, a 50% retracement of this upwave would fill all 4 gaps. For me, this increases the potential for a 50% retracement down to the 1630 level.

View attachment 24631

From 24 July...

 

[JTH]

I cannot at this time recommend a buy under current conditions, within the S&P 500 the pre-lunch appearance of a positive reversal ended the day retracing 50% of the day's gains. My Quad-Sys hasn't confirmed the previous 2 buy signals and my volume measurements have not lead me to believe the bottom is in. IMHO this was nothing more than an oversold bounce without the conviction to overturn the bears.

That statement held true, the 2nd buy signal turned out to be a short-term buy, but that's hard to play within the 3-7 day timeframe. At this time I'm not optimistic the bottom is in, the evidence seems to support lower action, while failing to support higher prices, perhaps a test of the recent lows is to be expected. Anything below 1630 pushes us into 1615 (a previous area of congestion and Fibonacci level) while the 1650 area may prove to be key resistance (another Fibonacci level with a large gap.) Don't be surprised to see scalpers play the 1630-1650 price range.

View attachment 25051

 

[rcknfrewld]

it took me a long time to hand jam some of those stats and boy were my eyes killing me and my wrist were sore...now it will take me about 10 minutes to update a week's worth of data.

Now that your eyes and wrist have healed, could you do me a solid with a little backtesting in your free time...what day of the year (Jan.1--Dec.31) produced the most gains if you were to be exclusively invested in just that one day of the year, throughout the course of, let's just say, ( i'll pick a round number for ease) the inception of the stock market. I have an IFT left this month...so time is of the essence

 

[JTH]

Now that your eyes and wrist have healed, could you do me a solid with a little backtesting in your free time...what day of the year (Jan.1--Dec.31) produced the most gains if you were to be exclusively invested in just that one day of the year, throughout the course of, let's just say, ( i'll pick a round number for ease) the inception of the stock market. I have an IFT left this month...so time is of the essence

I'm sorry my friend, only Premium Service subscribers get access to custom scans. :toung: There is no single day of the year/month that will yield you the results you are looking for and you certainly won't meet nor exceed a bull market's performance under those conditions. You can be invested for 5-8 days per month and out-perfom the markets, but not with the IFT restrictions in place. For the best days of a month to be invested, you'll want to pick up a copy of the 2013 Traders Almanac. In there you'll find the information you seek, it's well worth the 30 dollar investment. OBTW the 2014 is already out, I'll be picking up my copy soon and using it to plan my 2014 strategies, it will be fun to read through it.