JTH's Account Talk

[amoeba]

I know where i will be by august 1

where's that?

 

[JTH]

Thanks JTH. Wonder if 1653 is screaming today? Almost candlesticked.

Markets have held up rather well while the 1684 pivot continues to be an area of interest. Although seasonality is against us, we could be "flipping the script" meaning the first half of August could start a rally...it could happen

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[rktect1]

where's that?

I may actually flip my decision and stay for a couple days into august. That wont make me happy though.

 

[rktect1]

Thinking about flopping. 1.5 hours left to decide.

 

[rktect1]

20 minutes til whopner

 

[JTH]

I've mentioned the first half of August is seasonally weak. I didn't just make that up, if you read the 2013 Traders Almanac you'd see the data, furthermore, my own data confirms this prevailing trend. Now whether or not this will pay out for 2013 will have to be up to you...

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[JTH]

Often times my price targets are correct, while my time projections are wrong. Yes, the first gap did get filled today, but this was what I'd call a minor gap, the gap at 1653.13 screams at me the loudest. Looking at the red box, we can see we've spent 11 of the last 23 sessions in the 1670-1700 price range. We are essentially range bound, making this a traders market until one of these levels breaks. I cannot at this time ascertain the direction the markets will take. Logic would tell me once earnings season is over, the primary catalyst for pushing the markets higher will be gone, therefore I'm leaning towards a bull market correction.

I've changed the Double top to a Triple Top, the markets remain range bound in the 1670-1700, today we tested on the upside and received a sharp rejection. Frankly, it means nothing to me until we break out of the range.

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[JTH]

I've pushed the 76.4% Fib level up to the 1684 pivot, this would imply we have a 1722 price target.

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In relation to the S&P 500, the Wilshire 4500, is much closer to meeting its 910 price target.

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[JTH]

Currently down 18.33% in TZA. The green line is where the profit starts, but this position is well under so I've gone ahead and put in a stop loss at 23.97 (maybe I'll get a bounce at 24.00.) It will be a substantial loss for the position, but not for my overall account due to proper position sizing. If a bear rally were to begin, I'd re-enter the position and attempt to recoup the original loss and/or I may even re-enter at a lower position, but only if i were able to accumulate more shares.

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[jkenjohnson]

Currently down 18.33% in TZA. The green line is where the profit starts, but this position is well under so I've gone ahead and put in a stop loss at 23.97 (maybe I'll get a bounce at 24.00.) It will be a substantial loss for the position, but not for my overall account due to proper position sizing. If a bear rally were to begin, I'd re-enter the position and attempt to recoup the original loss and/or I may even re-enter at a lower position, but only if i were able to accumulate more shares.

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That's not as bad as some folks I know that are down 40-50% on TZA. 18% is recoverable - 40-50% will take a while.

 

[weatherweenie]

That's not as bad as some folks I know that are down 40-50% on TZA. 18% is recoverable - 40-50% will take a while.

Currently down 50+% on UVXY. Good times.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Currently down 50+% on UVXY. Good times.

and the bleeding continues...

 

[jkenjohnson]

Sorry RMI and weatherweanie. I put a 10% stop loss on my TZA. Maybe you should consider that next time. Still hurts but not as painful.

 

[weatherweenie]

Sorry RMI and weatherweanie. I put a 10% stop loss on my TZA. Maybe you should consider that next time. Still hurts but not as painful.

I've done that, had the stop tripped and had the given security rally back and then some.

 

[jkenjohnson]

I've done that, had the stop tripped and had the given security rally back and then some.

Yeah I have done the same thing, but it is better to lose 10% and some rally money than go down 50% - in my opinion. 50% is hard to stomach.

 

[weatherweenie]

Yeah I have done the same thing, but it is better to lose 10% and some rally money than go down 50% - in my opinion. 50% is hard to stomach.

Kind of hard to know when the 10% loss will rally or continue to drop.

 

[JTH]

I've been driving the same 20 year old truck (with no AC) for the past 10 years, this Texas sun is getting too hot and I'm getting too old to be sweating my azz off everyday. I'm taking out a TSP loan to spend about 8-9K for a decent used vehicle. I'm only saying this because I may move everything into the G-Fund until the funds settle.

 

[jkenjohnson]

I've done that, had the stop tripped and had the given security rally back and then some.

Agreed. I am struggling with when, or if, I should get back in.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Kind of hard to know when the 10% loss will rally or continue to drop.

I usually look at the Sentiment Survey. It is pretty accurate and did well last year, and is doing very well again this year. Have you considered using it as an addded parameter to your paid subscription. If your paid subscription and the SS Survey are both on a buy, then buy. If they are in disagreement, go with whichever one has been more succesful in the past. Just my two cents worth.

 

[rktect1]

Ok. So.. After seeing all the pain you folks have weathered together, i went and bought 200 shares of this TZA.

now what?

we have to wait on a bear rally?