James48843 Account Talk

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Sorry, I missed that one. It's probably the % sign in the title. The forum software doesn't like that. I'll fix it.
 
ok- I'm feeling WARM AND FUZZY TODAY.



I don't know if that means anything. but I think it's going to be a very nice day for stocks today. Yesterday's down side was just enough to release tension and ensure we're going to have a nice climb today.

Here's to wishing for a nice climb in stocks today.

And I'm thinking about a fall trip to the German Christmas Markets for a vacation. Anybody want to go? Spend a couple days in the Alps, and then Munich, and then to the Christmas Markets in Nuernberg? Road trip vacation anyone?
 
James48843 said:
ok- I'm feeling WARM AND FUZZY TODAY.



I don't know if that means anything. but I think it's going to be a very nice day for stocks today. Yesterday's down side was just enough to release tension and ensure we're going to have a nice climb today.

Here's to wishing for a nice climb in stocks today.

And I'm thinking about a fall trip to the German Christmas Markets for a vacation. Anybody want to go? Spend a couple days in the Alps, and then Munich, and then to the Christmas Markets in Nuernberg? Road trip vacation anyone?
Click to expand...

Looks like your warm and fuzzy might be right. Hope that feeling stays to the close of the markets.
 
Hey James, I love S. Germany/ Alps that time of year! So nice of you to invite us - you must be doing very well w/investments to offer to cover all our costs for that :D. If that's the deal then I'll take you up on it! Otherwise guess I'll hang around home & continue with my major sweat-equity projects, maybe go from W. WA to SoCal to visit family for Thanksgiving, prepare for all them to visit us for Christmas, and save up for possible trip to Hungary in May'24 for son's wedding (& make a 2-3 week touring vacation out of it). Have some Glühwein, Wurst, Feuerzangenbowle, and lebkuchen for me!!
 
Hmmm.

Nice couple of weeks, and then a fall yesterday, followed by a rebound today.

I’m thinking that after Christmas, we are likely to have a little consolidation, while the market tries to decide how it likes 6% interest rates.

I’m thinking a good time to move some into “G” and give stocks a rest. We shall see. Good luck.


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Well, a one-week trip to Florida in January turned into two full weeks because I finally caught Covid (on the plane, I’m sure). It wasn’t bad (I had FOUR Pfizer shots prior to catching a Covid) but I couldn’t fly and had to spend an extra week in solitary in a Florida hotel, waiting to become non-contagious again.

Back to work this week.

The darn Punxsutawney Phil didn’t see his shadow today, so I guess that means SPRING is just around the corner.

Hope that means the market will strengthen now. Good jobs report this morning- means our economy isn’t slacking at all- so I’m thinking we won’t get a rate cut at all until July or August, if that. I think the Fed ought to twerk another 1/4 point higher before they even think of a cut.

My prediction: zero rate cut, maybe even a 1/4 point higher in the next two months.

We shall see.
 
We have a LOT of sunshine in Michigan today- and a high today of 50’s’F. That means SPRING is near. Sun= warmth!

So I’m optimistic now.

Moving to:

C= 30%
S= 60%
I = 10%

And ready to ride the roller coaster of love.

Yeeeeehaw!
 
You know what? I have been deficient in watching my charts closely lately.

I’m very much a believer in the Point and Figure (P & F) charts available on Stockchart.com

Today I looked at the P&F charts for the S&P 500, the DWCF, and my GE and Apple stock .

It’s a bit shocking when I look at it. I’m thinking that this market needs to take a break- and it could be a significant break, and soon.

I’m thinking down 3-5% is due any time now, maybe more.

Nothing is wrong- it’s just too much up, for too long. A break /breather is due.


IMG_1436.JPG

Take a look at that chart, and tell me that you think it will keep going higher..

Maybe a little longer, but not much. 2 weeks? 4? Sell in May and go away is not far off.

I’m thinking I will shift out of stocks and into “G” in a matter of a week or two. I don’t know what the trigger will be- but we are due for a breather sooner rather than later.

I’m staying in right now, but my radar is raising its antenna to be more sensitive and watching closer.

Good luck


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James48843 said:
I’m thinking down 3-5% is due any time now, maybe more.
Click to expand...


27 Oct 2023 was the last pullback in the range your looking at. The average 3-Day -3% pullback is 7.6 a year over the past 5 years which closed positive. But 2017 Closed up 19.42% and had no such 3-Day -3% events.

Those 5 positive years created 38, 3-Day, -3% events, with an average of -5.46%
In comparison, the last 5 negative years had 130, 3-Day, -3% events with an average of -4.96%

My long-winded point, we are going to have less -3% pullbacks during these bull runs, which totally sucks because I'm a bargain hunter and I'm beginning to starve...
 
I'm guessing the 10% pull back that has been talked about will not materialize given interest rate cuts looming.
 
Still no pull back. Strange.

Here is history of the start of the year, vs. the rest of the year.

S&P 500 is up almost 10% so far this year, one of the best starts to a year going back all the way to 1928.

Where will it go next?

IMG_1879.JPG


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James48843 said:
ok- It's been a darn good run. But that 3.5% inflation bugaboo this morning tells me time to take a break.
Inflation comes in hotter than expected in March

I'm moving to 100% "L-Income" today. Done good for the spring- now taking a break.

Good luck. !
Click to expand...

I'm lucky my adult children are still young enough to let me step up on my soap box. Inflation is the worst tax there is, it's inescapable for everyone and erodes everything it touches. That's 3 months of higher inflation, we now have a trend...

ukbeqk7t.png
 
Ok- I’m seeing a definite retracement in the s&p500 now. The P & F chart shows a big shift the last few days, we’ve peaked, and now headed down some more.

I’m hunk my about a 70% chance of 4800, and maybe 50/50 that we drop to 4700.

It was a LONG tail up, over four months. The reversal will be quicker, I think.

We shall see.

IMG_2385.JPG


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Diving a bit more into stocks- moving to :

C=35, S=30, I=5, and L2040=30.

That puts me thinking likelihood of higher ahead, but still a chunk in L2040 to temper if anything goes south. I’m good with that right now.
 
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