James48843 Account Talk

[James48843]

Well, looks like I screwed this one up. I’m in stocks, and the pre- market is haywire.

Looks like a -3% right out of the gate will be on tap. Crazy.

And look what is spooking things there this morning.


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[James48843]

And the Nikkei in Japan tumbled overnight. Big time.




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[JTH]

Well on the lighter side, I'd love to see some PnF Updates opcorn:

 

[James48843]

See- here is what will be the next shoe to drop.

We just sent another Carrier group out of Norfolk in the last few days. Israel expects an attack from Iran as early as today. And so we have moved lots in close by.

Could get pretty crazy in the next week. Up? Down? Who knows where it will land.

I’ll take a look at some P&F’s after we get rolling today.

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[James48843]

Boom-

The VIX is suddenly screaming.





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[James48843]

Ok- so- who had “Middle East War breaks out between Iran and Israel” on their BINGO card?


IRAN just issued a NOTAM to close airspace to civilian traffic.

Iranian authorities issue NOTAM alert ahead of attack on Israel - The Jerusalem Post

Looks like they are getting ready. And we just dispatched an extra 12 vessel Aircraft Carrier Group three days ago, and moved everything up from Rota over closer to Souda Bay, and the Souda Bay group to the eastern Med.

Nice way to start a week, huh?


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[James48843]

Ok- you asked about P&F. This is the S fund this morning as of about 9:50 am. It’s broken down -4.28%, but it appears to have bounced there a little. I’m thinking it will likely reach down a little more.



And
I think it may reach down to that blue line:




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[James48843]

Update on the P&F Charts- both the S&P500 (C) and the DWCF (S) have filled in nicely with the bounce back. That was a quick dip, and now we’ll kind of move around this area for a

 

[James48843]

I’m going thinking we MAY get one more “X” in the green here, but it’s also time to take a pause. I’m moving to:
L Income=. 50%
C. = 10%
S= 20%
I =. 10%
F = 10%
Because I want some investable (L income is 68% G) yet also some exposure, including to F first the first time in a couple of years. If I end August above where I am now, I’m happy.

 

[James48843]

Here is that “S” Fund P&F chart with the fresh green “X “ yesterday.

I think we have one more up, maybe two, before a break.


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[JTH]

Here is that “S” Fund P&F chart with the fresh green “X “ yesterday.

I think we have one more up, maybe two, before a break.

Looking close to a Triple Top Breakout~!

 

[James48843]

There ya go. Nicely filled in that remaining “X”.

;-)

MAaaybe we get another X or 2, but I think that’s gonna be it for this cycle. We shall see . I’m still on track to move about half to safety today. Good luck!


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[James48843]

Significant amount down today on the “S” fund. More than 2% down, but they still has us above that blue line.

I’m thinking that will be resistance. Here is the P & F chart as well:




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[James48843]

Nice bounce off the bottom. The P&F shows three new green “X”s. Good enough for me. I’m going 75% C fund, and 25% S Fund, just for a high risk ride. I think it’s about a 60/40 chance of higher in the next week

 

[James48843]

Well, my buckets are full. Had a great run.

I’m moving to:
G= 83%
F = 5%
C= 5%
S = 5%
I = 2%

Thinking that once the Fed lowers the rate, F will do well, but stocks maybe not good. Prices now are near or above value. Looking for a fall breather starting tomorrow.




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[James48843]

Feeling Risky- so I’m gonna get wild.

Moving to:

50% C fund
40% S fund
10% I fund.


Good luck

 

[James48843]

Ok- I don’t know who needs to hear this- so I’ll just lay it out.

I had a de-ja-vu today. My wife said the exact same sentence I heard once before.

In 1987, I was a young - just back from the Army 22 year old in College, in October. I had been dabbling in the stock market, and mutual funds, for a couple of years. But not much.

Walking down the hall at college, in September of 1987, I overheard the two guys walking in front of me. One said to the other “look, you can’t go wrong. The stock market just goes up, and up. Cash out your college loan money, and buy stocks, and we’ll have enough by the end of the Semester in profit, that we will be good all next term!”

That was just about a week before the 1987 stock market crash.

Today, sitting down, my wife just said to me, almost those exact same words. After another sit-high day today, she said the phrase “we just can’t go wrong. Everything keeps climbing straight up. “


So I am seriously thinking about backing a LOT out of stocks.


Call me chicken, I don’t care. That’s a de ja vu that hit me square, so I’m gonna move something tomorrow. Thinking now what it will be, but I’m thinking moving at least half to G tomorrow.

Have a great Thanksgiving. I’m flying to Tucson to enjoy some warmer weather. The first snowfall is due in Michigan tonight.

Zoomyo today-


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[tsptalk]

Thanks James! Interesting. Trust the gut.

Happy Thanksgiving!

I hope you're wrong, but we will probably get at least a pullback some time in December.

 

[nasa1974]

I'm already on the lily pad.
I hope my financial adviser keeps an eye on my stocks just in case.
James, have a great Thanksgiving.

 

[WorkFE]

I'm not far behind you.