James48843 Account Talk

[James48843]

My Heating /Cooling company sent this letter out this morning. They sell TRANE furnace and air conditioners. Due to tariffs, they are jumping up prices effective immediately for commercial companies, and on March 1 for residential retail customers.

Furnaces / Air now will be 10% to 25% more expensive than last week.

 

[James48843]

I’m thinking this slashing of government workers is going to end very badly.

Our Allies are not happy, Putin is very happy. Our trade situation is going to be ugly fast.
Cutting off all USAID leaves 6 million plus people with no H.I.V. treatment, and will cause huge problems in Africa. Canada is worried they will be invaded. Denmark is worried Greenland will become Red,white and Blue Land against their wishes, and Panama is worried about invasion as well.

Farmers have major interruptions in selling farm commodities, and thee ed price of corn, wheat and soy could crash with suddenly no export markets.

I’m thinking that 13% drop I put down for the “Guess the Dow” might be too optimistic. I’m thinking now a 20% hit is not out of the question in the next 11 months/

 

[WorkFE]

I find that letter somewhat funny.
I own my own company, well half anyway. In 2020 we quoted $3.35 a square foot to rough in the electric in a new house. In 4 years we are up to $8.25 all from material increases, zero wage increases. To my knowledge there were no tariff changes during that time. I work with HVAC folks all the time, those possible 10-25% increases pale in comparison of the last 4 years of increases.

 

[JTH]

I find that letter somewhat funny.
I own my own company, well half anyway. In 2020 we quoted $3.35 a square foot to rough in the electric in a new house. In 4 years we are up to $8.25 all from material increases, zero wage increases. To my knowledge there were no tariff changes during that time. I work with HVAC folks all the time, those possible 10-25% increases pale in comparison of the last 4 years of increases.

There was an interesting discussion on a podcast I was listening to.

Basically the Tariffs will have 2 effects (or a combination of both). Either the companies pass down the cost to us, or they choose to cut their profit margins, then the cost will be passed down to us through slower growth in the stock market.

I also like your point on zero-wage increases. I know there are reports that say wages have caught up with inflation, but I don't believe it. I just don't see how it adds up. Maybe most folks have to wait a year to get a COLA increase, in the meantime inflation rises faster and the difference is absorbed through our labor.

 

[WorkFE]

There was an interesting discussion on a podcast I was listening to.

Basically the Tariffs will have 2 effects (or a combination of both). Either the companies pass down the cost to us, or they choose to cut their profit margins, then the cost will be passed down to us through slower growth in the stock market.

I also like your point on zero-wage increases. I know there are reports that say wages have caught up with inflation, but I don't believe it. I just don't see how it adds up. Maybe most folks have to wait a year to get a COLA increase, in the meantime inflation rises faster and the difference is absorbed through our labor.

TBH our operation is somewhat small, two partners with two employees. I don't disagree with tariffs causing price increases. My point is that prices increase without it, and I have no doubt these will increase cost. But how else do you bring someone to the table to discuss serious trade imbalances. Our two employees, after a few years of constant turn over, started out as apprentice and are both now Master Electricians, in their 30's. While salaries have remained constant the annual bonuses have increased. Believe it not, competition has decreased so we are landing more jobs which keeps us busy. With my day job I'm working 7 days a week, career minded responsible employees are hard to find.

 

[James48843]

This week has moved some more real disruptions. I’m thinking the tariffs and the cuts will disrupt our economy- like quickly.

I’m seriously considering going all “G”, or all “I” - but I’m afraid if NY tanks, the world is going to tank also. You think? I’m thinking we’re getting close.

 

[WorkFE]

It is certainly possible, heck we've been riding a wave for a while now. I'm already 100% G, for a couple days now. My move was made on meeting goals, not my foresight of a dooms day market crash. Very seldom does the US market suffer all by itself so I don't believe the I Fund would necessarily be the hideout.

 

[JTH]

This week has moved some more real disruptions. I’m thinking the tariffs and the cuts will disrupt our economy- like quickly.

I’m seriously considering going all “G”, or all “I” - but I’m afraid if NY tanks, the world is going to tank also. You think? I’m thinking we’re getting close.

I've been north of 20% cash since December, so personally I'd welcome some healthy pruning.

If your expectations play out, the G-Fund rate might drop, which will be close to dead-inflation-draining-money.

Since I live in Europe, my perspective is a bit skewed, but I think I can list a few reasons to avoid the I-Fund

Europe is dead money with no growth and they aren't even on a path to growth. Heck the regulations are having more babies than the people. In the 10 short years I've been here, I've not met one person who invest in stocks. All of them invest through property and nearly all of them are on variable rate mortgages, and we all got hammered when the rates went up. Since the 2nd Russian invasion, my utilities have doubled, and my rent has gone up 25%. Since that time food cost have gone up more than 25% and is still rising.

Now if the US tanks it's currency, that could give the I-Fund a good run, but I haven't seen that happen yet. My monthly currency conversations are as good as they've ever been.

 

[tsptalk]

Interesting, JTH. Thanks.

 

[James48843]

Question- since the I fund changed its tracking index, what exactly is the balance, by country, if this new “I” fund? I know it includes some emerging markets that previously were not on the “I”.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[tsptalk]

I-fund info:

Post in thread 'New Benchmark for the I-fund'

Sep 6, 2024

TOP 10 CONSTITUENTS | Country

TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MFG TW
NOVO NORDISK B DK
ASML HLDG NL
NESTLE CH
ASTRAZENECA GB
SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO KR
ROCHE HOLDING GENUSS CH
NOVARTIS CH
SAP DE
SHELL GB

DM countries include: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK. EM countries include: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary...

• tsptalk

• 

 

[James48843]

" data-quote="tsptalk" data-source="post: 0" class="bbCodeBlock bbCodeBlock--expandable bbCodeBlock--quote js-expandWatch">

I-fund info:

[emoji6]/post-[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji6][emoji6][emoji[emoji6]]" class="link link--internal" data-proxy-href="/proxy.php?link=https%3A%2F%2Fforum.tsptalk.com%2Fthreads%2Fnew-benchmark-for-the-i-fund.%5Bemoji640%5D%5Bemoji638%5D%5Bemoji640%5D%5Bemoji6%5Bemoji640%5D%5Bemoji637%5D%5D%5Bemoji637%5D%2Fpost-%5Bemoji%5Bemoji6%5Bemoji640%5D%5Bemoji638%5D%5D%5Bemoji640%5D%5Bemoji639%5D%5D%5Bemoji%5Bemoji6%5Bemoji640%5D%5Bemoji638%5D%5D%5Bemoji640%5D%5Bemoji6%5Bemoji640%5D%5Bemoji638%5D%5D%5D%5Bemoji%5Bemoji6%5Bemoji640%5D%5Bemoji638%5D%5D%5Bemoji640%5D%5Bemoji6%5Bemoji640%5D%5Bemoji638%5D%5D%5D%5Bemoji6%5Bemoji640%5D%5Bemoji637%5D%5D%5Bemoji6%5Bemoji640%5D%5Bemoji637%5D%5D%5Bemoji%5Bemoji6%5Bemoji640%5D%5Bemoji638%5D%5D%5Bemoji640%5D%5Bemoji639%5D%5D&hash=0174d8b4792b2dfbd193805234709ae0">https://forum.tsptalk.com/threads/n...ji6]]

Thank you.

That’s looking more and more appealing to me.


Sent from my iPhone using ]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]TSP Talk Forums

 

[James48843]

Ok- so I am moving today-

To. 50% =G fund
10%. = F fund
05% = C fund.
05% = S Fund
30% = I fund


I’m seeing the I fund still looking like a slow recovery. I’m thinking US stocks are going to tank big time. I expect 15% down from here, at least, and sooner rather than later.

We shall see.

 

[James48843]

Bang- that hurt a little. But not as bad as it could have been.

 

[WorkFE]

Bang- that hurt a little. But not as bad as it could have been.

That 30 I Fund stung. I was thinking like you but decided to let you wade in first.

 

[nasa1974]

So, maybe the honeymoon is over.

 

[TommyIV]

That 30 I Fund stung. I was thinking like you but decided to let you wade in first.

It's not looking better today. ACWX (I-fund) is down while U.S. stocks are climbing higher.

 

[James48843]

Trump says the Tariffs are back on, starting tomorrow.

S&P doesn’t like that. Now down almost 2%.

Trump dashes hope for last-minute Canada and Mexico deal ahead of 25% tariffs​

Source: CNBC

President Donald Trump said that the U.S. will impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Tuesday, scrapping hopes of a last-minute deal that would avoid stoking a trade war with America’s top trading partners.

This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/03/tru...d-mexico-deal-ahead-of-25percent-tariffs.html

 

[James48843]

I’m thinking this set of tariffs is going to really, really hit the markets badly in a few days.

Once the costs are imposed, it’s going to upend all kinds of cross-border trade adversely. Everyone has to recalculate what this means, what it will do to prices, and the economy is going to tank. My 2 cents.

 

[JTH]

Now if the US tanks it's currency, that could give the I-Fund a good run, but I haven't seen that happen yet. My monthly currency conversations are as good as they've ever been.

Last night's edition of CNBC's fast money discussed Europe & the Euro. To my recollection, this is the most time they've spent on this topic in a very long time. This has been on my radar for some time, a very dangerous game here.

Why Donald Trump’s election could hasten the end of US dollar dominance