James48843 Account Talk

[James48843]

Ok- I’m seeing the following two things:

1. There is resistance today - now - just below where we are at. At the S&P 500 level of 5500 there is resistance, and then again at about 5250 there is another resistance point.

I’m thinking that the 5500/5475 area will likely form a brief hold this week, but it may sink again next week towards that 5250 area.

Whether that one holds is unknown.

Here is the P&F chart showing those two.

 

[James48843]

And here ya go- a Quick Look at the “S” Fund’s P&F chart today.

That looks even weaker- the resistance here will be around 2000 or a touch above. But it’s showing a triple bottom breakdown today. I think another 2% or more down likely before the next pause- which should settle a round 2000. (1% more than here.) then I see a pause.

No idea if that will be enough - or still only halfway down. After that pause, can go either way.

This is where I really wish we had an extra move a month. I already expended one. I wish that wasn’t even a consideration.

(* -Maybe we should talk to Doge about free markets, and TSP trading limits imposed by a prior Democratic administration.)

 

[jonfresno]

Well, here we are. Going down in flames. .

I did manage to get 20% of my funds over to “G” when I wrote that my wife did a Dejavu to 1987 to me. I should have done more, but I was thinking it wouldn’t begin this soon.
So now I’m down a bit more. My VIX is getting higher. I’m Down about 100K from that day. But we haven’t even started impact from policy change. I’m thinking we have six months after T gets in office before it all crashes- it’s going to take several months to properly provide formal notice of countries for tariffs, etc. But things are starting to look shaky already.

VIX has bounced up to near 20%-

Too late for me to flee now, I say.
View attachment 67669

Didn't realize it till I read your post, I got a wife (ok, spouse) indicator the other day. Total contrarian. We're listening to the radio and they talked about how bad the market was doing, and she asked if we were in stocks. Last time she asked that was during the covid downturn. Clear buy signal if there ever was one..

 

[James48843]

I feel like this was another cliffhanger in Season Two-


I’m seeing the next downside on the S&P 500 to be a resistance to be somewhere between 5500 and 5450.

Whether or not that one will hold- it’s too early to tell. But I’m thinking that when the April 2 tariffs kick in, it’s going to get bloody, and quick. I don’t know if we’ll hold off until then. We shall see.

Seeing more downside risk in stocks. A lot.


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