James48843 Account Talk

[James48843]

Ok- I’m seeing the following two things:

1. There is resistance today - now - just below where we are at. At the S&P 500 level of 5500 there is resistance, and then again at about 5250 there is another resistance point.

I’m thinking that the 5500/5475 area will likely form a brief hold this week, but it may sink again next week towards that 5250 area.

Whether that one holds is unknown.

Here is the P&F chart showing those two.

 

[James48843]

And here ya go- a Quick Look at the “S” Fund’s P&F chart today.

That looks even weaker- the resistance here will be around 2000 or a touch above. But it’s showing a triple bottom breakdown today. I think another 2% or more down likely before the next pause- which should settle a round 2000. (1% more than here.) then I see a pause.

No idea if that will be enough - or still only halfway down. After that pause, can go either way.

This is where I really wish we had an extra move a month. I already expended one. I wish that wasn’t even a consideration.

(* -Maybe we should talk to Doge about free markets, and TSP trading limits imposed by a prior Democratic administration.)

 

[jonfresno]

Well, here we are. Going down in flames. .

I did manage to get 20% of my funds over to “G” when I wrote that my wife did a Dejavu to 1987 to me. I should have done more, but I was thinking it wouldn’t begin this soon.
So now I’m down a bit more. My VIX is getting higher. I’m Down about 100K from that day. But we haven’t even started impact from policy change. I’m thinking we have six months after T gets in office before it all crashes- it’s going to take several months to properly provide formal notice of countries for tariffs, etc. But things are starting to look shaky already.

VIX has bounced up to near 20%-

Too late for me to flee now, I say.
View attachment 67669

Didn't realize it till I read your post, I got a wife (ok, spouse) indicator the other day. Total contrarian. We're listening to the radio and they talked about how bad the market was doing, and she asked if we were in stocks. Last time she asked that was during the covid downturn. Clear buy signal if there ever was one..

 

[James48843]

I feel like this was another cliffhanger in Season Two-


I’m seeing the next downside on the S&P 500 to be a resistance to be somewhere between 5500 and 5450.

Whether or not that one will hold- it’s too early to tell. But I’m thinking that when the April 2 tariffs kick in, it’s going to get bloody, and quick. I don’t know if we’ll hold off until then. We shall see.

Seeing more downside risk in stocks. A lot.


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[James48843]

I’m still seeing 5450-5500 this and into next week. I’m thinking lower afterwards- but that still is up in the air.

The market is not going to like tariffs next week. And it’s gonna be ugly, when tariffs do kick in. Shock to the economy. Big time.
My 2 cents.

Moving more into safety. Here is my split:,

G= 71%
F= 20%
C= 02%
S = 02%
I=. 05%

I’m thinking it’s going to get ugly soon.

 

[James48843]

I’m still seeing 5450-5500 this and into next week. I’m thinking lower afterwards- but that still is up in the air.

The market is not going to like tariffs next week. And it’s gonna be ugly, when tariffs do kick in. Shock to the economy. Big time.
My 2 cents.

Moving more into safety. Here is my split:,

G= 71%
F= 20%
C= 02%
S = 02%
I=. 05%

I’m thinking it’s going to get ugly soon.

Well, 2nd day after the “Liberation Day” continues to look Iike “Liquidation Day”.

It’s doing exactly as I thought- a bad downer, and only going to get much, much worse.

I’m really angry that we only have two moves a month. If I had unlimited, I’d be following very closely here, and getting ready to try a one-day in and out move to capture the coming upside bounces off these big falls. I just need to hit it right a coupe of times, and I can capture my yearly target return. I’m only up about 1% this year so far, so I’d like to get a nice 1-2% rebound bounce, before sitting off to the side much longer for the descent I see ahead.

But it is what it is. I’ve got one in-and-out this month , so I have to try and hit it exactly right.

That will be very tricky on the first bounce back. I think this is NOT your typical in and out move after news event, because it’s going to take weeks for price rises to become very visible, and months to begin making economic adjustments. I’m not going to do anything other than a quick in and out in the near future.

Having the bulk of my holdings in G, with a nice pad of “F” has worked well the last few days. I’m going to remember that in the future as a very positive strategy.
This time I left just a few percent each in C, S, I, and the worked out just as I intended. A good hedge of stocks went higher, but almost complete protection when stocks sank big.

 

[tsptalk]

You've been a rock star on your market call the last several weeks, James!

 

[James48843]

You've been a rock star on your market call the last several weeks, James!

Now what do we do?

I’m thinking we are getting near to a temporary pausing spot, one where we may get a nice bounce for ONE day, before it levels out, and then slides to another 5% down. I’m thinking we may get a 2% bump up, and then a slow descent to form some kind of a short term bottom that will last for a week or two.

What do you think? Is it time to jump back in yet for a quick bounce?

 

[WorkFE]

What do you think? Is it time to jump back in yet for a quick bounce?

I'm not jumping in without floaties, but I may dip my foot in. Say 10-15%

 

[James48843]

Nope.

Nice area around this level. The market is going to take a breather around this level, but not for long.
Maybe a day, maybe a week. Not a month.

I’m seeing another downward move shortly.


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[tsptalk]

I’m seeing another downward move shortly.

??

 

[James48843]

Well, there you have it. What a day, huh?

I need a friggen drink.


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[tsptalk]

How did that get by the censors?

 

[James48843]

 

[James48843]

View attachment 68775

this is what I want to know.

If he intentionally tells his minions to buy, at 9:37 am, and then, three hours later, says he changed his mind- is that sufficient evidence on intentional illegal market manipulation? Or should that be more in line with SEC violations?

At 9:36 am, DJT stock was trading in the open market at 16.76. Up 0.72% on the day.

At 9:37 am he tweeted. Said it’s gonna be a great day. Stock jumps up 7% in three minutes. Then, in the hours later- stock jumps 21%.

Hummm.

 

[tsptalk]

That post is definitely a little fishy. It reminds me of March 2009. I'll never forget it because it was quite a call.

Obama Says Stocks Good Deal!

Published Tue, Mar 3 2009 5:32 PM EST

https://www.cnbc.com/2009/03/03/obama-says-stocks-good-deal.html

Sounds like a better discussion for X or Blue Sky

 

[exnavyew]

this is what I want to know.

If he intentionally tells his minions to buy, at 9:37 am, and then, three hours later, says he changed his mind- is that sufficient evidence on intentional illegal market manipulation? Or should that be more in line with SEC violations?

At 9:36 am, DJT stock was trading in the open market at 16.76. Up 0.72% on the day.

At 9:37 am he tweeted. Said it’s gonna be a great day. Stock jumps up 7% in three minutes. Then, in the hours later- stock jumps 21%.

Hummm.

Trump’s Tariffs Whiplash Is Open Corruption. He Admitted It Himself.​

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-tariffs-whiplash-open-corruption-200522957.html

 

[James48843]

Note: my wife’s comment about todays market:

“It’s men. Men are emotional about the stock market. Women are smarter than that.” - Mrs. J, a few moments ago.


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[nasa1974]

this is what I want to know.

If he intentionally tells his minions to buy, at 9:37 am, and then, three hours later, says he changed his mind- is that sufficient evidence on intentional illegal market manipulation? Or should that be more in line with SEC violations?

At 9:36 am, DJT stock was trading in the open market at 16.76. Up 0.72% on the day.

At 9:37 am he tweeted. Said it’s gonna be a great day. Stock jumps up 7% in three minutes. Then, in the hours later- stock jumps 21%.

Hummm.

I thought it was fishy.

 

[James48843]

I thought it was fishy.

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