James48843 Account Talk

[James48843]

Interesting data point- those with great credit- are suddenly bigger credit risks. The number of 780-850 credit score who are now behind on payments suddenly doubled in the last three months.

Overall delinquency over the past year is DOUBLE for 30, 60 and 90 days past due.

That’s new. High income people don’t just normally stop paying their bills. Something is changing. Watch credit sensitive stocks.

 

[tsptalk]

Any speculation as to why this is happening (without getting too political)?

Is this people in financial trouble, are they just giving up, sticking it to big business?

 

[exnavyew]

Just FYI:
buying private credit firms characterized as 'a red hot market'.

BlackRock targets private credit growth with $12 billion HPS acquisition​

https://www.reuters.com/business/fi...rivate-credit-firm-hps-investment-2024-12-03/

 

[James48843]

Boom- big drop this afternoon. I think tomorrow will be a big down day also.

I should have listened to my spouse two weeks ago, and sold then.

I only sold 20% to move to G. Now it’s too late to bail any more.

 

[James48843]

Any speculation as to why this is happening (without getting too political)?

Is this people in financial trouble, are they just giving up, sticking it to big business?

As I look at the data I can analyze, it’s still a very small percentage getting behind. But rates have climbed, so it just might be trouble affording the bills.

let’s see what the next month or two bring- more defaults, or will it just be a one quarter fluke?

With this much federal debt ($36T) you can bet the days of cheap interest rates will change. If it gets more like the “normal “ 8-10% interest rates, I think you will see a problem quickly.

 

[WorkFE]

If it gets more like the “normal“ 8-10% interest rates, I think you will see a problem quickly.

No body likes spending extra to borrow money, but it may be necessary. 8-10 percent might slow down folks making bad buying decision.

 

[nasa1974]

As I look at the data I can analyze, it’s still a very small percentage getting behind. But rates have climbed, so it just might be trouble affording the bills.

let’s see what the next month or two bring- more defaults, or will it just be a one quarter fluke?

With this much federal debt ($36T) you can bet the days of cheap interest rates will change. If it gets more like the “normal “ 8-10% interest rates, I think you will see a problem quickly.

Flashback to the 1980's

 

[James48843]

If I had to do it all over again: i would:

1. Stay a little longer at the Agency. I retired on my 60th birthday. I could have hung on till 62, and I think that would have been better for me overall.

2. I would split my TSP into 50% Roth and 50% regular. Roth really does help at tax time.

3. I would be bolder earlier in my career, and learned to leave it in sometimes when I felt like jumping out. Overall I did ok, but I did end up lower several times by jumping out.




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[felixthecat]

Understood. I retired at 59. I don’t have the same concerns as one and two. Number three is defintely a yes too but I changed strategy and it is working to preserve gains. Market gains extended TSP growth in retirement.

 

[nasa1974]

If I had to do it all over again: i would:

1. Stay a little longer at the Agency. I retired on my 60th birthday. I could have hung on till 62, and I think that would have been better for me overall.

I retired the first time at 60 only because I had my max years of service for my CSRS pension. Failed retirement at 62 and worked at Nasa as a contractor for 7 more years. That actually worked out because it allowed me to earn enough points to collect Social Security.

2. I would split my TSP into 50% Roth and 50% regular. Roth really does help at tax time.

I wasn't smart enough back in the beginning to think about my TSP as a true part of my retirement. I just looked at it as some extra money on top of my pension. Didn't think of it as my overall retirement plan.

3. I would be bolder earlier in my career, and learned to leave it in sometimes when I felt like jumping out. Overall I did ok, but I did end up lower several times by jumping out.

Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

Hindsight being what it is should I have approached my TSP differently? Sure. But real life gets in the way sometimes. I'm not part of the $1M club but I did OK. I was able to take out some money just after retirement to pay off a bunch of loans (mostly school loans that helped my daughters) and I still did ok even with the bad year I had in 2021/2022. Fully retired and enjoying the grandkids.

 

[James48843]

Ok- I don’t know who needs to hear this- so I’ll just lay it out.

I had a de-ja-vu today. My wife said the exact same sentence I heard once before.

In 1987, I was a young - just back from the Army 22 year old in College, in October. I had been dabbling in the stock market, and mutual funds, for a couple of years. But not much.

Walking down the hall at college, in September of 1987, I overheard the two guys walking in front of me. One said to the other “look, you can’t go wrong. The stock market just goes up, and up. Cash out your college loan money, and buy stocks, and we’ll have enough by the end of the Semester in profit, that we will be good all next term!”

That was just about a week before the 1987 stock market crash.

Today, sitting down, my wife just said to me, almost those exact same words. After another sit-high day today, she said the phrase “we just can’t go wrong. Everything keeps climbing straight up. “


So I am seriously thinking about backing a LOT out of stocks.


Call me chicken, I don’t care. That’s a de ja vu that hit me square, so I’m gonna move something tomorrow. Thinking now what it will be, but I’m thinking moving at least half to G tomorrow.

Have a great Thanksgiving. I’m flying to Tucson to enjoy some warmer weather. The first snowfall is due in Michigan tonight.

Zoomyo today-


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I’ll just make note today that we finish the year today, with the “S” fund EIGHT (-8%) lower than November 25, when I said I had a 1987 level De Ja Vu.

Well, we are on track. I screwed up and still am 80% invested. But my reflective “Me “ says I’ve already gotten hammered enough- we should get a bounce back soon. While the rest of me says “don’t count on it.”


Decisions….decisions.

I shall follow my own advice. I advise myself to #3 be bolder, and leave it in when I would otherwise be cautious.

Good luck!

 

[James48843]

Here is where I was when my wife said that (Nov 25) to me, and where I am today.

 

[nasa1974]

I’ll just make note today that we finish the year today, with the “S” fund EIGHT (-8%) lower than November 25, when I said I had a 1987 level De Ja Vu.

Well, we are on track. I screwed up and still am 80% invested. But my reflective “Me “ says I’ve already gotten hammered enough- we should get a bounce back soon. While the rest of me says “don’t count on it.”


Decisions….decisions.

I shall follow my own advice. I advise myself to #3 be bolder, and leave it in when I would otherwise be cautious.

Good luck!

Be bolder but listen to that little wiser voice.
I played the "we should bounce back soon" in 2022. It didn't work. It took all of 2023 and 2024 to recover that loss. I hit my TSP high mark on 11/8/21 and by the end of 2022 I had lost 32.24%. Although the "we should bounce back soon" mentality really didn't start until about mid 2022. My high mark was just before my wife passed so I was a little distracted for a few months. By the time I started paying attention to my account I was so deep in the hole I figured it had to bounce back, right? I guess what I'm trying to say is, be bolder but don't get distracted.

 

[tsptalk]

Here is where I was when my wife said that (Nov 25) to me, and where I am today.

That was interesting...

Post in thread 'James48843 Account Talk'

Nov 25, 2024

Ok- I don’t know who needs to hear this- so I’ll just lay it out.

I had a de-ja-vu today. My wife said the exact same sentence I heard once before.

In 1987, I was a young - just back from the Army 22 year old in College, in October. I had been dabbling in the stock market, and mutual funds, for a couple of years. But not much.

Walking down the hall at college, in September of 1987, I overheard the two guys walking in front of me. One said to the other “look, you can’t go wrong. The stock market just goes up, and up. Cash out your college loan money, and buy stocks, and we’ll have...

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