James48843 Account Talk

[James48843]

You know, the more I look at this market, the more I am seeing a repeat of 1920-21.

The Spanish Flu epidemic led to problems in the economy, followed by the Fed raising interest rates. Same as we are having now. That led to DEFLATION in 1921 and a struggling economy. Is this a repeat? Take a look, and you decide.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depression_of_1920–1921#Overview

1920-21 stock market. We are a little more than halfway down, like it was fall of 1920.




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[Mcqlives]

I thought of that scenario off and on, with Jeckyll Isand in mind. I think it is possible but IMO we won't get any solid indications till sometime the first half of 2023.

 

[Whipsaw]

Half way... I'm 50% in. Hopefully full exposure will happen near the bottom!

 

[James48843]

Ok- so I’m looking right now and seeing oversold. Next week is going to be too risky.

Jumping to safety.

Moving to:

G Fund = 50%
L Income= 50%

Effective close of day tomorrow.
Good luck!


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[James48843]

Ok- Check this out.

I reallocated today to a new mix of: 50% = L Income, 25%= C and 25% = S.

But on the process of checking things out, I seem to be missing some funds.

IF- they took the money out as part of paying me a monthly payment, it is not far off what the amount would be. But there is NO RECORD showing the money out of the account to pay the monthly payment yet.

But I THINK my account is missing exactly $2,256.61 at this exact moment. I won’t know for sure for a few days.

Now, I can’t really tell for sure, because the computer now only says “your balance on Nov 10 is $XXX.XXX.xx “. As I say, it may resolve tomorrow with a recording if where the money went. But as of this moment, the columns do not add up to what I think they should be- and that is new in the last 24 hours.

The computer display now DoES NOT display the dollars AND number of shares in each TSP fund. It only displays dollar amounts. So there is no way to determine if something is missing, unless you sit down and do the math, manually, each day.

Just saying- watch carefully, and take screen shots at each balance before and after making a transaction of any kind.




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[tsptalk]

Not good. Keep us posted.

 

[Epic]

So with administrations spending money like never before and using terms like never before such as Billions and Trillion's like it's nothing, I've often wondered if they were to take out (skim) like lets say 6 cents twice a month at random intervals from every person having a TSP Account, would anyone even notice?? And now if you say that it's even harder to track such a thing on the "New & Improved" (LOL) site, it would provide easy pickings for them to do so without anyone being the wiser.

I know, I know.............. Conspiracy Theory...... but can you imagine how much that would add up to per year?? It would be sizable $$$$ considering how many past and current federal gov TSP Account holders there are.
How many people that you know check their balances down to the penny on a daily basis??? Not many I'm sure. I'll admit it, I sure don't. :embarrest: I probably should more often than I do, which is not much.

I'm just sayin...........somthin to think about. Anything's possible, and they haven't given me any reason to trust a single one of them. :soapbox: :laugh::laugh:

 

[Whipsaw]

Didn't Richard Pryor do that in one of the Superman movies? :cheesy:

 

[WorkFE]

How many people that you know check their balances down to the penny on a daily basis???

You don't have to; it only takes one. There are 6.3 million TSP account holders. If 1/10 of a percent of people check their accounts that meticulously that would be 6,300 account holders. It would be a major scandal that no politician would recover from.

On the flip side, there would also be alot of folks cheering their creativity. No love lost on us poor slubs.

 

[PessOptimist]

Ok- Check this out.

I reallocated today to a new mix of: 50% = L Income, 25%= C and 25% = S.

But on the process of checking things out, I seem to be missing some funds.

IF- they took the money out as part of paying me a monthly payment, it is not far off what the amount would be. But there is NO RECORD showing the money out of the account to pay the monthly payment yet.

But I THINK my account is missing exactly $2,256.61 at this exact moment. I won’t know for sure for a few days.

Now, I can’t really tell for sure, because the computer now only says “your balance on Nov 10 is $XXX.XXX.xx “. As I say, it may resolve tomorrow with a recording if where the money went. But as of this moment, the columns do not add up to what I think they should be- and that is new in the last 24 hours.

The computer display now DoES NOT display the dollars AND number of shares in each TSP fund. It only displays dollar amounts. So there is no way to determine if something is missing, unless you sit down and do the math, manually, each day.

Just saying- watch carefully, and take screen shots at each balance before and after making a transaction of any kind.




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James, I agree the new site sucks as far as keeping track goes. I did find a place to see the "units" as they now call shares. Not as easy as the old account summaries balance by fund.

At home page after logging in scroll down to savings. Click down arrow by savings. Scroll down to investment details. Click on button. Scroll down and you should see a list of funds with the info including units.

Scroll to top and click quick links/account activity. Click the by fund activity button. This should show you the units/shares changes. Took me a while to find all this. I use the units or shares number in a spread sheet. I too keep track of the daily balance. The withdrawal never shows up on tsp dot gov until the 16th or after.

PO

 

[James48843]

Moving to:

L Income : 50%
C : 20%
S : 20%
I : 10%

Today. I looks healthy going forward.


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[James48843]

Thinking the Fed will only raise a little more. Inflation showing signs that it might be losing steam. that's good.

Job numbers strong, the economy ok. So I'm going to take MORE risk Instead of using L income as my safety fund, I'm going to move to L 2035. More risk, but still a lot in safety.

Moving to:

L2035- 30%
C= 30%
S= 30%.
I = 10%.

Best of luck.

 

[Khotso]

James, out of curiosity, did you ever resolve that $2,256.61 discrepancy you found in your fund account back in November? The new interface is so convoluted, limited and confusing that I don't fully trust it by any stretch. .... I don't know why Vanguard can give me straightforward detail on every one of my holdings ($, shares, change, etc.) every single day with one easy click and the TSP site leaves me frequently guessing what date exactly the figures appearing on the page (with no details on which fund, shares, etc.) represent. If you follow the arrows on current balance, you end up seeing two different dates!

 

[James48843]

So I am looking at the S fund this morning- and noticing that we're near the top of a channel of trading now.

DO I move to safety today? Will it break back down? Or is this the solidification of a new level around here?

Who knows? NOT me.

Hanging on for another day. I'm thinking that we're going to hit the breaks over the next couple of days. but we';ll see.

Good luck!

 

[Whipsaw]

I thought yesterday was the day to exit, seems I was right... of course I didn't exit.

 

[James48843]

Attention on deck.

The hair just stood up on the back of my neck. Friends know this means something is up-

I’m moving 100% of everything into “G” tomorrow. I’m somewhat concerned with the default. And then, today, the hair stood up and said- move to G.

So I am.


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[James48843]

Ok- well, the debt ceiling crisis appears to have been handled. I’m going back into stocks today. 45% each in C and S, and 10% into I. Good luck!

 

[James48843]

Senate approved the House debt ceiling bill exactly as the House did. Now it goes to Joe for signature. Senate vote was 63-36.


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[James48843]

Not sure what is going on- but I'm having trouble re-allocating money in the auto-tracker.

Im moving to:

40% = "G"
30% = "C"
20% = "S"
10% = "I"

Effective cob today.

 

[tsptalk]

I'll take a look.

Update: Looks OK. It went through.