Intrepid_Timer's PUBLIC Account Talk

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Perhaps you could start a system bashing thread or something. I'm busy trying to make some of us money..................................
 
IT - you have my email addy...now do I need to also sign up somewhere for the trial?

please clarify!
 
tsptalk said:
One of the biggest problems for those following a system is that they give up after a bad period, and jump back in after a good run. This guarantees an underperfomance. I am guilty of this myself.

You are right that some services did worse after they went to a subscription, but that was at the top of the bull market.

But if you would have picked one service and stuck with it, you would have done pretty well compared the S&P 500 or the other stock funds...

Here are the returns of the systems that we've tracked since 2007, which included the 2007-2008 bear market...

122010a.gif
Click to expand...

Please clarify that I come up only 6.79% or average return is 1.7% per year regarding to Sentiment as follow:
2007 = 21.32%
2008 = -38.32%
2009 = 6.62%
2010* = 33.85%

2007 = Examaple with $100,000.00 = $121,320.00
2008 = $121,320.00 => $74,830.18
2009 = $74,830.18 => $79,783.93
2010* = $79,783.93 => $106,790.80

For I_T the # available from 2008 to present is 29.18% or average return is 9.75% per year or less than 1% (.8125%) return per month.

2008 = -17.03%
2009 = 20.94%
2010* = 28.74%

2008 = Examaple with $100,000.00 => $82,970.00
2009 = $82,970.00 => $100,343.92
2010*= $100,343.92 => $79,783.93
2010* = $79,783.93 => $129,182.76
 
SWAVET said:
Please clarify that I come up only 6.79% or average return is 1.7% per year regarding to Sentiment as follow:
2007 = 21.32%
2008 = -38.32%
2009 = 6.62%
2010* = 33.85%
Click to expand...

My guess is the 60+% return for the Sentiment is not the actual, but the backtested results using the relatively new bull/bear modes. Note the asterisk.

As far as systems go, like Tom says, if you're going to follow one, you have to do it blindly and consistently. For 20 bucks a month, that's pretty darn cheap as far as systems go. Try checking the web for comparables... some subscriptions are astronomically priced. If you're not satisfied, follow the free sentiment system. You can't go wrong either way.

Best wishes Mike. Let's make some money.
 
Thanks for the (xrt)-retail chart symbol. That chart looks as if Santa showed up from Thanksgiving-December 6 and then side straddle hopped the rest of the way. Looked at last years chart it reflected the same. I'll keep that in mind for the "S" fund next go around.

Thanks for the additional source.
 
FAB1 said:
IT - you have my email addy...now do I need to also sign up somewhere for the trial?

please clarify!
Click to expand...

Yes, you'll need to go to the premium services members area and create a log ID and password if you don't already have one. You won't need to enter any payment information to view my commentary and moves until Feb 1st. Also make sure you sign for e-mail alerts to receive an email when I get a signal change. I'll continue to send out an email to my own list until then also. You should probably get use to using my premium service for alerts though.

I_T
 
Yes, but copper is just one of my "basket" of indicators.

I'm glad my information has been able to help you get started. I've been working on and perfecting my trading system for quite some time. It's the best I've seen out there...........but maybe you can develop a better one. If so, it'd sure make my life easier, just please don't charge an arm and a leg for it!! :)

Devilduck said:
After reading your strategy it gave me insight as to how to plan a system. I want to try and build one for myself by end of next year, need more experience. I posted below because I remember "copper" being one of the indicators and look at the market futures today...up up and away.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/copper-hits-a-record-high-trades-at-429-a-pound-2010-12-21-917280
Click to expand...
 
As stated on my premium services page: "** I was not posting regularly on the autotracker in the first half of 2008. My actual return according to my Personal Investment Performance (PIP) from TSP was (-5.56%)
*** My actual 3-yr Return is 47.13%"


Regardless, these returns were all before I put the finishing touches to my system this spring with my weightings strategy. I could show you my backtested returns, but you wouldn't believe them anyway............:p



SWAVET said:
Please clarify that I come up only 6.79% or average return is 1.7% per year regarding to Sentiment as follow:
2007 = 21.32%
2008 = -38.32%
2009 = 6.62%
2010* = 33.85%

2007 = Examaple with $100,000.00 = $121,320.00
2008 = $121,320.00 => $74,830.18
2009 = $74,830.18 => $79,783.93
2010* = $79,783.93 => $106,790.80

For I_T the # available from 2008 to present is 29.18% or average return is 9.75% per year or less than 1% (.8125%) return per month.

2008 = -17.03%
2009 = 20.94%
2010* = 28.74%

2008 = Examaple with $100,000.00 => $82,970.00
2009 = $82,970.00 => $100,343.92
2010*= $100,343.92 => $79,783.93
2010* = $79,783.93 => $129,182.76
Click to expand...
 
Thanks! I"m ready for the new year begin. I'm actually hoping for a new bear market. That's when my system will excel the most.........

Frorule said:
My guess is the 60+% return for the Sentiment is not the actual, but the backtested results using the relatively new bull/bear modes. Note the asterisk.

As far as systems go, like Tom says, if you're going to follow one, you have to do it blindly and consistently. For 20 bucks a month, that's pretty darn cheap as far as systems go. Try checking the web for comparables... some subscriptions are astronomically priced. If you're not satisfied, follow the free sentiment system. You can't go wrong either way.

Best wishes Mike. Let's make some money.
Click to expand...
 
I sent out an email alert test message to Tom at 11:03am ET and received it at 11:15am ET on my yahoo account. Please post if you get your's later and what time.

Thanks!
 
Good day to be out of the F fund........whew! At least my F fund system is working right now...............as I stated in my commentary this morning, if you look at the 5-day charts on Tom's commentary this morning, I'm starting to think we are setting up like 2004-05 and 2007-08. A three year pattern would mean 2010-11 is gonna be similar. It's also looking like my system will move to a sell signal on Thursday.

Opinions?
 
Just a reminder that the market is open on Friday Dec 31, but those returns will be reflected in Monday Jan 3 share prices.

I just find that a little interesting because if it is a big day, up or down, the S&P will be have a larger than usual difference in return than the C-fund. Of course that is true of the other funds, but the C-fund is a benchmark and it will forever show that diffrence in the TSP returns history.
 
High bullish readings and yet "everyone" knows we're due for a correction and that January is probably the month it'll hit. Seems just a bit too obvious to me, but we'll see how it plays out.

Intrepid_Trader said:
It's also looking like my system will move to a sell signal on Thursday.

Opinions?
Click to expand...
 
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