Intrepid_Timer's PUBLIC Account Talk

[Intrepid_Timer]

Intrepid Trader... will you still be posting your IFTs via the Tracker? I hope so, as this is how I have been tracking you now for about months. Thankyou kindly.

I'll continue to post my moves on the autotracker but once the pay service starts on Feb 1st, we'll be blocking my IFT's and returns like the other premium services.

 

[FAB1]

If its okay to discuss it here in public.
What are the payment options for the premium services, O' Milky One?

 

[DakotaKid]

Do you anticipate a move back into the stocks this month, or do you anticipate staying in F or G for the rest of the month. I have one move left this month... not sure if I want to wait for an entry point this month for stocks, or go into F fund instead. Any advice? TIA

 

[Guest2]

I'll continue to post my moves on the autotracker but once the pay service starts on Feb 1st, we'll be blocking my IFT's and returns like the other premium services.

BEST OF LUCK TO YOU AND YOUR PREMIUM SERVICE INTREPID !

 

[eafetrader]

Ill be following your trades through January,..any idea what your service will cost starting in February? Thanks in advance. eafetrader

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

If its okay to discuss it here in public.
What are the payment options for the premium services, O' Milky One?

You can use a credit card or use PayPal. You personally can send me $1000 a month to my home address.............just kidding!!!

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Do you anticipate a move back into the stocks this month, or do you anticipate staying in F or G for the rest of the month. I have one move left this month... not sure if I want to wait for an entry point this month for stocks, or go into F fund instead. Any advice? TIA

I believe I MIGHT get a signal to go back into stocks this month. As I posted in my commentary this morning, my system is getting closer to a buy, as early as tomorrow. It won't be today though......................

Personally, I don't make changes in the middle of a signal, I just wait for the next one. The F fund may have run it's course already, but I don't know. I'll sell it when my system tells me to. It doesn't always catch the exact tops or bottoms, nothing or nobody can do that, but with our limited transfers, you can't really play around either. I could move half to the safety of the G fund, been then I woudn't be able to go into stocks later on. These are all individual choices, my system just gives me buy and sell signals.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

BEST OF LUCK TO YOU AND YOUR PREMIUM SERVICE INTREPID !

Thanks SB!!

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Ill be following your trades through January,..any idea what your service will cost starting in February? Thanks in advance. eafetrader

It will be $20 per month. We may not be offering an annual option just yet, but probably will later in the year. Just want to see how things go first.

 

[McDuck]

Good luck!

What I have seen here for over the last 5 years is someone will be having great returns for a few months. Then they go to charging, the returns go to pot. What was the name of the one about 3 or 4 years ago EbbNFlow? He made me 20% in the 2 months before he went premium, then lost me 35% the first 2 months that I was paying him. Just put me in the skeptical column.

 

[tsptalk]

Good luck!

What I have seen here for over the last 5 years is someone will be having great returns for a few months. Then they go to charging, the returns go to pot. What was the name of the one about 3 or 4 years ago EbbNFlow? He made me 20% in the 2 months before he went premium, then lost me 35% the first 2 months that I was paying him. Just put me in the skeptical column.

That's a bit of an exaggeration. You may have lost 35% in 2 months, but here are the returns for the EbbChart System during the months that followed the start of the subscriptions. Keep in mind it was a market top:

Oct 2007: -1.34%
Nov 2007: -5.17%
Dec 2007: +0.66
Jan 2008: -7.77%

Then he had 4 consecutive positive months.

Ebb ended 2007 with a +20.01 return compared to the C, S and I funds which were up 5.54%, 5.5%, and 11.4% respectively.

He ended 2008 with a loss of 17.51% compared to the C, S, and I funds which lost 37.0%, 38.3%, and 42.4% respectively.

2009 was a lagging year...

http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns3.html

Not too shabby, but I do agree, things were doing better before he went to a subscription.

 

[McDuck]

I accept your numbers Tom and stand corrected. But like you said "things were doing better before he went to a subscription." Thanks for providing this website, Tom. I hope you have a great Christmas season.

 

[JTH]

Not too shabby, but I do agree, things were doing better before he went to a subscription.

If I recall correctly it wasn't long after that we went to the 2 IFT limit, and that severely hampered many trading systems. As for paying for a service, some folks would rather let someone else manage their money and in some cases that might be a good thing when you look at some of the returns we've had this year. Each to his own I'm not a player hater, make money any which way you can.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

I'll let my returns speak for themselves......................

 

[tsptalk]

If I recall correctly it wasn't long after that we went to the 2 IFT limit, and that severely hampered many trading systems.

Yes. You can probably blame Ebb for the limits. He had a huge following of his very active system by mid-2007, and by November, a month after the subscription started, they announced the limits.

 

[Gumby]

It will be $20 per month. We may not be offering an annual option just yet, but probably will later in the year. Just want to see how things go first.

As far as I am concerned.... if someone has a subscription service for $20/ month and it helps me rake in a 8 to 10% return annually with moderate risk to capital...... I'm all in. $20/month is peanuts for quality advice.

My returns have been dismal on my own. I have tried all the subscription services Tom has to offer but have trouble following their advice. Trader Fred seems to do well and he has had an outstanding year.

Intrepid has done very well the last 3 years. I am looking forward to your service

And by the way, I am back to a positive return in the tracker for the year after being down double digits..... My goal has been to at least double the G fund return..... Looks like I am not going to make it without Santa's help:nuts:

 

[Warrenlm]

If I recall correctly it wasn't long after that we went to the 2 IFT limit, and that severely hampered many trading systems.

There was some speculation at the time that Mr. Ebb was the catalyst for the TFIB moving to two IFTs per month. His system was very active and effective and set up for no limits so it had to be harshly affected as he tried to adjust. Someone at the TSP fund manager was being affected, huh.

And all the Monday rockets up predictions don't always materialize either.

I'm still trying to remember exactly what happened to cause Milk_Man to morph to Intrepid_Trader..... I must have been oblivious to it...

I'll sign up for Mr. I_T's because I think he has adapted to our IFT timing and limits.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Just as an FYI, the TSP could lower limits to one trade per month and it wouldn't affect my system much. I would just throw out my F fund strategy and lose about 3-6% per year...............anything less than one trade per month and I think you'd see a lot of money exit the TSP asap, even if it's just a loan to put into a self-directed IRA...........

I think tomorrow I'll discuss a little bit about opening self-directed Roth IRA's...........

 

[McDuck]

As far as I am concerned.... if someone has a subscription service for $20/ month and it helps me rake in a 8 to 10% return annually with moderate risk to capital...... I'm all in. $20/month is peanuts for quality advice.

I agree. But in the past, systems fell apart when we they started charging. There have been 5 or 6.

 

[tsptalk]

I agree. But in the past, systems fell apart when we they started charging. There have been 5 or 6.

One of the biggest problems for those following a system is that they give up after a bad period, and jump back in after a good run. This guarantees an underperfomance. I am guilty of this myself.

You are right that some services did worse after they went to a subscription, but that was at the top of the bull market.

But if you would have picked one service and stuck with it, you would have done pretty well compared the S&P 500 or the other stock funds...

Here are the returns of the systems that we've tracked since 2007, which included the 2007-2008 bear market...