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Intrepid_Timer's PUBLIC Account Talk
- Thread starter Intrepid_Timer
- Start date
Boghie
Well-known member
Don't get mixed up between your account allocation and your contribution allocation...
When your TSP account allocation gets to be some size than your paycheck contributions don't make much difference for some time. The AutoTracker is intended to track your TSP account - it does not take into account contributions.
And, once your contributions are put in your account they become part of your account allocation.
By the way, Frorule hit on a big point. Why buy cash ('G Fund') with cash. You will never implement a DCA strategy by trading one type of cash for another. In fact, you are simply paying just a bit more every paycheck to buy cash. Yuk...
And, Nate is right. You blow a DCA strategy by swinging your assets around wildly. Especially when you swing them to booming funds 100%. At that point you are swing trading - and by definition not using a DCA strategy.
When your TSP account allocation gets to be some size than your paycheck contributions don't make much difference for some time. The AutoTracker is intended to track your TSP account - it does not take into account contributions.
And, once your contributions are put in your account they become part of your account allocation.
By the way, Frorule hit on a big point. Why buy cash ('G Fund') with cash. You will never implement a DCA strategy by trading one type of cash for another. In fact, you are simply paying just a bit more every paycheck to buy cash. Yuk...
And, Nate is right. You blow a DCA strategy by swinging your assets around wildly. Especially when you swing them to booming funds 100%. At that point you are swing trading - and by definition not using a DCA strategy.
JTH
Well-known member
This we can certianly agree on. An investors biggest mistake can be their lack of commitment to a system. Switching investment systems is like trading in your wife for a newer model. Sure the new one might look prettier, but looks fade and you'r going to end up paying more and getting less...
Nate
Member
is like trading in your wife for a newer model. Sure the new one might look prettier, but looks fade and you'r going to end up paying more and getting less...
I've been discussing this with my wife when she complains of the aches & pains of growing older. Does this apply to a "lease" policy as well?
Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
Don't know if anyone read my commentary yesterday, but the Dow was closing in on that 11600 mark again before taking a nose dive. Hmmmmm......:suspicious:
JTH
Well-known member
Good catch, I'm seeing some signs of weakening on the American Indexes, perhaps we won't get the January pop everyone anticipates.
Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
Your welcome Tennvol and FireWeatherMet! You've come to the right place to learn Tennvol. When I first started coming here back in '04, I didn't know squat but have learned quite a bit since. Lots of good information to absorb and along the way you'll meet a lot of good folks. There will always be the naysayers, but don't let em keep you down. Just remember, "Friends Don't Let Friends Buy And Hold"..................
FWM, sounds like you have what I'm trying to accomplish with TSP down pretty good. I think my strategy of trying to just make a couple percent per month is the most we can hope for with TSP. I know I won't be able to get that two percent per month every month, but there are times when I'll make a lot more than that too. Just trying to be consistent and take out all the volatility and heartache of buy and holding. Over twenty percent a year sure beats what the S&P 500 has done the last 50 years or whatever............and certainly the last 10..................
I also believe it's a much lower risk strategy than buy and holding also because you get to pick your own battles. I hope that people don't base my systems effectiveness off of only one month either. It's not a get rich quick sort of thing. I've been told that slow and steady wins the race though.............
FWM, sounds like you have what I'm trying to accomplish with TSP down pretty good. I think my strategy of trying to just make a couple percent per month is the most we can hope for with TSP. I know I won't be able to get that two percent per month every month, but there are times when I'll make a lot more than that too. Just trying to be consistent and take out all the volatility and heartache of buy and holding. Over twenty percent a year sure beats what the S&P 500 has done the last 50 years or whatever............and certainly the last 10..................
I also believe it's a much lower risk strategy than buy and holding also because you get to pick your own battles. I hope that people don't base my systems effectiveness off of only one month either. It's not a get rich quick sort of thing. I've been told that slow and steady wins the race though.............
Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
Ut oh, looks like I may have just eeked out a win over the S fund for the year................hot diggity dogs!!! 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djr49YlMPF0
Where's MY present? :laugh:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djr49YlMPF0
Where's MY present? :laugh:
Tsunami
Well-known member
Just a thought, I noticed there seemed to be a whole lot folks following your system's sell signal this week....and wasn't your sell signal issued right about the time of the Sentiment Survey?....I wonder if the Sentiment Survey results could have been impacted somewhat this week by your strong following. Like I said, just a thought.
Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
That is being discussed here: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=295201#post295201
I doubt that my system has too to much do with the Sentiment Survey's results. My signals can come on any given day of the week. THis week it just happened to be on the same day the survey is taken (Thursday). Plus CNBC apparently was talking about sentiment and Tom mentioned that the number of participants was higher than any other time this year. A lot of people are joining up for the autotracker at the end of the year so perhaps this might explain the increase...................
I doubt that my system has too to much do with the Sentiment Survey's results. My signals can come on any given day of the week. THis week it just happened to be on the same day the survey is taken (Thursday). Plus CNBC apparently was talking about sentiment and Tom mentioned that the number of participants was higher than any other time this year. A lot of people are joining up for the autotracker at the end of the year so perhaps this might explain the increase...................
Kaufmanrider
Member
Personally, I moved to G with you, but voted in the survey for a bull market.
On a side note, I looked at the tracker last night, looks like over 200 (about a third on the tracker) of us have moved into the G at 100%, most probably following your recommendation? If so, that's a pretty good following.
Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
Coincidence I"m sure.............. I actually spent all of December hoping to be in at the end of the month in order to take advantage of a possible New Year pop, but then my system tells me not to be in. Have to listen to it, no matter how much my emotion wants to do different.............
I actually spent all of December hoping to be in at the end of the month in order to take advantage of a possible New Year pop, but then my system tells me not to be in. Have to listen to it, no matter how much my emotion wants to do different.............
cawwilson
Member
Coincidence I"m sure..............
That's funny, I too spent the entire month of December in, and then at the very end of the month, my system says to get out.. hopefully between our 2 systems we are on to something!
Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
That's funny, I too spent the entire month of December in, and then at the very end of the month, my system says to get out.. hopefully between our 2 systems we are on to something!
Well to the sidelines to start the new year for me:
I followed I_T, F_T, Poolman, and a few other of the leaders who overweighted F-fund going into 2011 (Love-to-Bike, Sigi).
I think there may be some sort of lag in the F-fund share price relative to the AGG that I haven't been able to figure out.
I have always been baffled as to how a "system" can work when you have this unknown with regards to government interventions/stimuli - that has all sorts of effects on the market.
Anyway - there will be some post-holiday retail sales and a jobs report (the last one was a bit wierd/biased down, imo) to digest in the next few days, as well as true volume trading.
I did not vote in the sentiment survey; my vote would have been bear (a bad sign since I haven't been right since last April); I IFT with my sentiment (which is almost always against the advice of the sentiment survey).
I followed I_T, F_T, Poolman, and a few other of the leaders who overweighted F-fund going into 2011 (Love-to-Bike, Sigi).
I think there may be some sort of lag in the F-fund share price relative to the AGG that I haven't been able to figure out.
I have always been baffled as to how a "system" can work when you have this unknown with regards to government interventions/stimuli - that has all sorts of effects on the market.
Anyway - there will be some post-holiday retail sales and a jobs report (the last one was a bit wierd/biased down, imo) to digest in the next few days, as well as true volume trading.
I did not vote in the sentiment survey; my vote would have been bear (a bad sign since I haven't been right since last April); I IFT with my sentiment (which is almost always against the advice of the sentiment survey).
Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
Ut oh, I wonder if this will effect the markets tomorrow. The market likes to go against the herd. Of course, this article didn't come out until today:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/How-t...8.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/How-t...8.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
JamesE
Member
Amoeba, look at the top 50, where is their money? Now look at 250 and lower, where's theirs? C'mon man, get out of the bear cave...
FAB1
Well-known member
Amoeba, look at the top 50, where is their money? Now look at 250 and lower, where's theirs? C'mon man, get out of the bear cave...
With a handle like "amoeba" how high can you go.
sorry dude, I couldnt help myself.
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