Gumby's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Gumby,

No one has lost any money until they IFT into the G fund - holding requires that one handle the devaluation on a tewmporary basis and keep up the contributions all the way down buying more shares at lower prices - and be prepared to continue buying on the upside return.

 

[Steadygain]

Day to day operations in the end will have to go to the private sector. So this is a temporary fix - I hope - and that is what the pundits are saying. I'm hoping this is truely temporary, and Fannie and Freddie don't stay stuck in the Government because we can't decide what to do with them.

Here we are all on the same page:
The day to day operations will go to the private sector - but in a different manner than over the years. That is why it largely failed, in fact why is had to fail - because the 2 supreme goals by which it was structed - countered each other as a private business/govenment organization.

It's been doomed to fail - but no one could do anything until now.

This time the Government is going to make sure it does not fail again. This time will be chopped up into little bitty pieces - privatized and sold out as a multitude of entities.

BOTTOM LINE: This is not Temporary - and is very much part of the Permanent Solution - but we are simply undergoing a "temporary phase" until it's complete.

 

[Gumby]

My friend this is not a 'Bail Out' - this is a 'TAKE OVER'

The Bail Outs that have occured since 10/07 are just that - with Billions and Billions going to recue numerous Financial Institutions.

But this is different altogether. The price tag is by by the biggest in history - but honestly it is long overdue. This is the most important step in long term economic stability and by far the greatest move for the Financial Sector. But rough times will follow because we've largely been able to cloud the picture by making it appear we were largely correcting the big obstacles (Bear Stearns) as they occured.

That's why I shrugged it all off and thought: "No big deal, it's simply a correction".

Bailout, buyout, or takeover.....however you want to say it still amount to one thing that has been apparent since the BSC debacle. The taxpayer is getting screwed.

I agree rough times will surely follow. This whole deal has not played out yet. I am glad that I was not a Buy-N-Holder of Fannie and Freddie common stock.

 

[Gumby]

Gumby,

No one has lost any money until they IFT into the G fund - holding requires that one handle the devaluation on a tewmporary basis and keep up the contributions all the way down buying more shares at lower prices - and be prepared to continue buying on the upside return.

Yes, once an IFT is made from your stock holdings back into the G fund.....the loss/gain is realized. No doubt about that. The stock funds in TSP will head back up again one of these days. Patient investors like you will benefit. I would rather try to buy low and sell higher multiple times than just keep holding. Your method does have merit and will work if your time frame is long enough.

In my personal trading account, the only stock that I have bought and held for 18 years is WMT.

 

[Gumby]

More Fan - Fred

A good deal for taxpayers?
So how much will the government spend and how much might taxpayers lose - or even make? All good questions without answers yet.
Everything, ultimately, depends on how the housing market fares, and the extent of the losses Fannie and Freddie sustain. But to hear one major market player tell it, there is some chance taxpayers could actually make back some money.
In an interview with CNNMoney.com, bond fund manager Bill Gross, co-investment chief of Pimco, said he believes in the next week "the bond market - certainly the agency mortgage market - will scream upwards in price and substantially lower in yield" in what he said could be the most dramatic move in the history of the mortgage market.
And part of the bailout might turn out to be a good investment for Treasury, since the government could get a good return on its preferred stock and will be buying mortgage securities at a relatively low price.
Said Gross, "I think the plan will likely make a profit for the taxpayer."


Now, that is what I would call putting on a positive spin.


Full Story

 

[Gumby]

Oh well, just decided to make a bet today in my trading account.
Bought Jan 10 Merrill PUTS for $1.70

ticker .MOJMB JAN 17, 2009 $ 10.000 PUT

Long Shot?

 

[Gumby]

SP500 just busted through 1200. How low will she go?

 

[Gumby]

Barclays is a vulture trying to pick off some cheap assets.
What a strategy...back out of buying the whole company, let it go bankrupt and pick up only the pieces they want.

"Barclays confirms that it is discussing with Lehman Brothers the possible acquisition of certain Lehman Brothers assets on terms that would be attractive to Barclays shareholders," the company said in a brief announcement to the London Stock Exchange.

Full story

 

[Show-me]

They were the smart player in the market. Why not, as a investor why would I bail you out when I can let you fall over your own mistakes so that I can buy the pieces on the cheap. That is what I am waiting for right now on UYG. Let'em fail, I want them cheap.

 

[Gumby]

This market is so volitile. Here's14U thinks the S&P may visit 800. He may be correct. I think it may be best not to jump to quick and be a patient dog in this market. The 2 IFT limit is draining our TSP accounts.

View attachment 4692

 

[Gumby]

Hank Greenberglans Fight For Control Or Buyout Of AIG-CNBC
0 minutes ago - Dow Jones News

Related Companies

SymbolLast%ChgAIG4.46-6.30%As of 3:09 PM ET 9/16/08



DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Maurice R. "Hank" Greenberg, the former chief executive of American International Group Inc. (AIG), wrote a letter to AIG CEO Robert Willumstad and AIG's board Tuesday, saying he would pursue either buying out the giant insurer or taking control through a proxy fight, CNBC reported.
Greenberg wrote that he plans to organize a group - which would include ex-AIG Chief Financial Officer Howard Smith as well Greenberg's companies, C.V. Starr & Co. and SICO - to make run for controlling AIG.
He also complained that his numerous offers to help the ailing company were rebuffed because of fears Greenberg would "overshadow" the current management. He said that the time has come to put that fear aside and work together to save AIG.
Full story at http://www.cnbc.com

 

[Gumby]

Financials are coming under heavy selling pressure. The Naked shorts are out in force.

UYG @ $16.80 down 14.2%:blink:

I don't think there is enough government cheese to go around!

 

[Silverbird]

Financials are coming under heavy selling pressure. The Naked shorts are out in force.

UYG @ $16.80 down 14.2%:blink:

I don't think there is enough government cheese to go around!

Cheezzee to go with their Whinnnee?

 

[Steadygain]

I don't think there is enough government cheese to go around!

Hoped this would finally come up.

"Of the $4 Trillion circulating in the U.S. money supply, only 1/10th is in the form of actual cash and coins stored in bank vaults and people's pockets."

From Michio Kaku's book VISIONS p.37
I was so fancinated with the book in 97 or 98 - I essentially memorized it.

If this is new information to anyone reading this - it should make you pause and wonder. Humm...we're already probably $20 Trillion in debt and notice how many Billions have collectively been given in rescue attempts over the past year.

All I can say is:
"Does anybody really know what time it is?
Doe anybody really care - oh what time,
And so I can't imagine why - oh noo
Cause I've got time enough to cry". :embarrest:

 

[Gumby]

Goldman Sachs (GS) trading around -$100, down ~25% today
52 wk high ~$250
Are they going to perform the AIG manuver?

Where's that surplus cheese? View attachment 4702

 

[Gumby]

CBOE Volatility Index $VIX
35.53

5.23 17.26%0 Last Trade as of 1:50 PM ET 9/17/08








Getting closer to the elusive 40 mark!

 

[Gumby]

Looks like S&P 1150's are getting close. 5 minutes before close.:worried:

 

[Gumby]

$SPX

Index Value:


1,156.39Trade Time:4:59PM ETChange:

57.20 (4.71%)Prev Close:1,213.59Open:1,210.34Day's Range:1,155.88 - 1,210.3452wk Range:1,169.28 - 1,576.09


That is going to put some OOOOOO's on the P&F chart :suspicious:

I feel your pain:blink:

 

[Gumby]

7:58 PM EST and still no TSP share prices. Is Barclays still counting their money or seeing how much they need to skim to pay for their Lehman purchase today?:worried::worried::worried:

 

[Gumby]

The bear market have been tough on TSP investors, especially since the FRTIB has reduced the IFT's to only 2 per month between stock funds.

Since bear markets can last for a few years, I have a couple of thoughts about some bear funds for TSP. Of course, the FRTIB would just like for a person to buy-N-hold and just absorb the loss, which for people with short time frames may not be in their best interest.

How about the FRTIB having funds that mimick the reverse of the C, S, and I funds that may be used.

Examples might be EFZ (short MSCI EAFE) fund for inverse of I fund and SH (short S&P 500) or SDS (2X short S&P 500) for inverse of C fund and one of the Russell or NASDAQ shorts for inverse of S fund. I don't know if there is an inverse for Wilshire 4500.

Another suggestion would just be inverse funds within TSP. They could call them C,S, and I inverse. These funds could pay the opposite of the C, S, & I funds. Example, if C shares went up $0.50 in one day the inverse fund would go down $0.50, etc. This would allow investor to make money where the Bear market is here.

My question is, how much trouble and liquidity problems would it be for Barclay's to have inverse funds? How would they hedge this?

An example might be: Gumby has 50%C and 50% I allocation, Show-me has 50% C_Inverse and 50% I_inverse. The market goes up on a given day 1% C ($0.14) and I fund goes down 2% (-$0.34). When FRTIB updates the accounts the next morning..... Gumby gets an increase of $0.14 share in C - Show-Me gets -$0.14 for C inverse, etc.

If TSP does not do something for Bear markets, I would think there will be a tremendous reduction in contributions. Maybe FRTIB is not worried about this at all. After all the IFT limits has saved Barclays a few pennies but has cost TSP investors millions.

Any thoughts?