Gumby's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

The bear market have been tough on TSP investors, especially since the FRTIB has reduced the IFT's to only 2 per month between stock funds.

You'll probably hate my thoughts. :suspicious:

The FRTIB's reduction of 2 IFTs per month was probably beyond their control and largely forced on them from Barclays and hugely supported by the higher powers.

I agree THE LIMITATION itself is hard for us to handle because it essentially prevents us from grabbing short term gains.

Since bear markets can last for a few years, I have a couple of thoughts about some bear funds for TSP. Of course, the FRTIB would just like for a person to buy-N-hold and just absorb the loss, which for people with short time frames may not be in their best interest.

FRTIB does NOT want any person to "just absorb the loss" - that in no way benefits them or anyone else; that's why IFTs are still in play. Sounds to me like you need to throw a rock at someone and in a fit of rage are both delusional and paraniod.

How about the FRTIB having funds that mimick the reverse of the C, S, and I funds that may be used.

Again you sound like a madman - even God doesn't have this ability. The reverse of C,S,I in a BEAR MARKET is G Fund.

Examples might be EFZ (short MSCI EAFE) fund for inverse of I fund and SH (short S&P 500) or SDS (2X short S&P 500) for inverse of C fund and one of the Russell or NASDAQ shorts for inverse of S fund. I don't know if there is an inverse for Wilshire 4500.

OK - maybe I'm over reacting to what appeared to be your over reaction. I've been suggesting additional FUNDS over the past year or so: especially China, Asia, Hong Kong - and these have done outstanding while C,S,I were going no where.

I think we'd all agree to making more choices available.

Another suggestion would just be inverse funds within TSP. They could call them C,S, and I inverse. These funds could pay the opposite of the C, S, & I funds. Example, if C shares went up $0.50 in one day the inverse fund would go down $0.50, etc. This would allow investor to make money where the Bear market is here.

My question is, how much trouble and liquidity problems would it be for Barclay's to have inverse funds? How would they hedge this?

An example might be: Gumby has 50%C and 50% I allocation, Show-me has 50% C_Inverse and 50% I_inverse. The market goes up on a given day 1% C ($0.14) and I fund goes down 2% (-$0.34). When FRTIB updates the accounts the next morning..... Gumby gets an increase of $0.14 share in C - Show-Me gets -$0.14 for C inverse, etc.

If TSP does not do something for Bear markets, I would think there will be a tremendous reduction in contributions. Maybe FRTIB is not worried about this at all. After all the IFT limits has saved Barclays a few pennies but has cost TSP investors millions.

Any thoughts?

Well as I was venting - in response to your venting - I see something we can both agree on. Having more choices as investment options would be nice and would all the more offer a balance during times when the US and European Markets are getting hit. I have no idea if FRTIB has the authority to add new options without the approval of Congress; but I do believe as long as you view them as MALICIOUS and HEARTLESS - bent on the hopes of wanting all investors under their control to Burn and Crash that the odds of you approaching them in a meaningful manner would be essentially impossible.

If you want change then you need to change your views and belief of the FRTIB - and only then could you approach them in a reasonable manner.

 

[Gumby]

What a wild ride in the market today after the gap open.

Shorted SDS early @ $75.70 Bought to close at $73.70 2.6% gain

Open positions: Bought SDS @ $71.10
Bought GS @ $99.75

Financials took off like a rocket this PM.

 

[Steadygain]

Gumby,
Sorry about my earlier post today. Driving home from work I realized I kind of went overboard; and honestly whatever you or anyone else thinks of the Board, Barclays...or whatever is really none of my business.

So now that I just put Ella to bed, I can go to sleep feeling everything's clear.

Anyway, I hope there's no hard feelings.

 

[Gumby]

Gumby,
Sorry about my earlier post today. Driving home from work I realized I kind of went overboard; and honestly whatever you or anyone else thinks of the Board, Barclays...or whatever is really none of my business.

So now that I just put Ella to bed, I can go to sleep feeling everything's clear.

Anyway, I hope there's no hard feelings.

Steady,

Hey man...no hard feelings here. You express yourself well and this MB is all about exchanging ideas and opinions.
Your welcome at my thread anytime.

Take care.

 

[Steadygain]

Thanks Bro,

Have a great day!! (oh and HAPPY FRIDAY)

 

[Gumby]

Thanks Bro,

Have a great day!! (oh and HAPPY FRIDAY)

It is going to be a wild day.....probably record volume as the shorts are forced to cover from this government induced frenzy.:nuts:

 

[Gumby]

Who is going to make money from the government bailout news?


Check this out:
Morgan Stanley MS hit $11.70 yesterday afternoon. The share price dropped so fast I thought they had defaulted or something. This morning, pre-market @ $33.18.

Goldman Sachs GS
Hit $85.88 yesterday afternoon. They dropped from around $100/ share to $86 in about 2 minutes. This morning pre-market $142.

MS has 1.1 Billion shares outstanding
GS has 393.8 Million outstanding

Do the math on that. Like someone said, " a billion here and a billion there and pretty soon your talking some real money"

My only question is: How much do our presidential candidates stand to gain in contributions?:nuts:

 

[Silverbird]

The candidates will most likely gain, however it's not a reward for current events - the candidates are simply loud voices attached to one vote each in the Senate right now. I think contributions will be more out of fear cause the candidates are going to want to spank them big time when they get into the office cause that's what the American people want. :toung:

 

[Steadygain]

record volume from this government induced frenzy.:nuts:

There is NO DOUBT you are right on target.

It is NOT that the US Economy is now solid and strong; if anything the underlying dynamics were on the brink of causing a total collapse and all this has been shared with the pubic over the recent few weeks. THE ONLY REASON WHY GOVERNMENT HAD TO TAKE CONTROL OF FANNIE/FREDDIE and AIG - is because IT REACHED THE POINT OF FINANCIAL MASS DESTRUCTION - on a GLOBAL LEVEL.

But as far the Presidential Canidates go: As long as the Picture looks good - REALITY MAKES NO DIFFERENCE. This is why Sarah is now wearing $5,000 dollar outfits (probably not by choice). So in truthfulness the underlying fundamentals mean nothing as long as the "Upswing Tom shared in his comments" comes to play - especially with VOLUME.

VOLUME is the KEY - it's what I've been waiting on all year. If volume remains consistent (and that's a big IF) - then the presidential canidates will shine like diamonds and the ELECTION will be everything I've been saying it would be over the past few months

 

[Gumby]

No doubt it is a conspiracy. Is this Russia??
There will be lawsuits over this deal.

"The move smacks of irony on several fronts. For one, institutions such as Morgan and Goldman regularly practice short-selling as part of their proprietary trading strategies. These firms made billions in profits by running hedge funds or serving them through prime brokerage operations. They shrugged when companies complained that short sellers were ruining their companies.
Now, Morgan's John Mack and Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman not only won a ban of naked shorting, but of all shorting of their industry. They also have persuaded New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to investigate short selling in the market place.
Remember, short selling is perfectly legal. Manipulating prices through rumor isn't. But what is the SEC banning?


said the SEC is doing exactly what claims to be against -- manipulating the markets and propping up ailing financial companies. They're doing it because the banks are essentially backed by taxpayers and have become politically important.
Our complaint through history about countries that try to influence their markets by changing the rules mid-game was that it was tantamount to cheating. For all of its faults, the U.S. markets were supposed to be the most level playing fields in the world. "

Full Story

 

[Gumby]

There has been much talk over the actions of the government intervention since last Thursday. Make a note of whom Mr. Paulson has worked for most of his life. (See below if you don't already know).
Thursday afternoon when the stock market was tanking, the S&P 500 hit 1133, Goldman-Sachs GS stock which had been trading for around $98 to $106 range fell to $86 rapidly. The next thing I know, the GS stock and the rest of the financial made a huge upward which of course at the time I didn't know why. Not only did Paulson save his former company and buddies, but they banned short-selling of all types of financials on the following Friday which by the way was September options expiration day( notoriously a volatile day) . Yes, that is right, they banned perfectly legal short selling, which by the way most all of the financial companies had been doing for years to other companies. As the price of financial stocks soared Friday, many trapped shorts had to buy to cover their position which magnified the problem and caused many trapped shorts to literally "lose their shirts".. Gold-Man Sachs stock opened for trading on Friday morning at $145. With 390 Million shares outstanding, a $59 share movement in one day made billions for his buddies. Market capitalization for GS increased over 20 billion overnight and removed the fear of the firm going bankrupt like Lehman did. Lehman was the sacrificial company for the government to let fail. A company which by the way was a competitor of GS for years.
Coincidence? You be the judge.
Think about it the next time you submit your quarterly tax payment or view your tax witholding payments.:worried:






Treasury Officials

Henry M. Paulson, Jr.
Secretary of the Treasury

Open Print Version Open Print Version| Hi-Resolution Photo

President George W. Bush nominated Henry M. Paulson, Jr. to be the 74th Secretary of the Treasury on June 19, 2006. The United States Senate unanimously confirmed Paulson to the position on June 28, 2006 and he was sworn into office on July 10, 2006 by Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts. As Treasury Secretary, Paulson is the President's leading policy advisor on a broad range of domestic and international economic issues.
Before coming to Treasury, Paulson was Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Goldman Sachs since the firm’s initial public offering in 1999. He joined Goldman Sachs Chicago Office in 1974 and rose through the ranks holding several positions including, Managing Partner of the firm’s Chicago office, Co-head of the firm's investment Banking Division, President and Chief Operating Officer, and Co-Senior partner.
Prior to joining Goldman Sachs, Paulson was a member of the White House Domestic Council, serving as Staff Assistant to the President from 1972 to 1973, and as Staff Assistant to the Assistant Secretary of Defense at the Pentagon from 1970 to 1972.
Paulson graduated from Dartmouth in 1968, where he majored in English, was a member of Phi Beta Kappa, and an All Ivy, All East football player. He received an M.B.A. from Harvard in 1970. He and his wife, Wendy, have two children, Amanda and Merritt.

 

[Gumby]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Buster
The Best Plan...


I'm against the $85,000,000,000.00 bailout of AIG.
Instead, I'm in favor of giving $85,000,000,000 to America in a We Deserve It Dividend.
To make the math simple, let's assume there are 200,000,000 bona fide U.S. Citizens 18+.
Our population is about 301,000,000 +/- counting every man, woman and child. So 200,000,000 might be a fair stab at adults 18 and up..
So divide 200 million adults 18+ into $85 billion that equals $425,000.00.
My plan is to give $425,000 to every person 18+ as a We Deserve It Dividend.
Of course, it would NOT be tax free. So let's assume a tax rate of 30%.
Every individual 18+ has to pay $127,500.00 in taxes. That sends $25,500,000,000 right back to Uncle Sam.
But it means that every adult 18+ has $297,500.00 in their pocket. A husband and wife has $595,000.00.
What would you do with $297,500.00 to $595,000.00 in your family?
Pay off your mortgage? housing crisis solved.
Repay college loans? what a great boost to new grads.
Put away money for college? it'll be there.
Save in a bank? create money to loan to entrepreneurs.
Buy a new car? create jobs.
Invest in the market? capital drives growth.
Pay for your parent's medical insurance? health care improves.
Enable Deadbeat Dads to come clean? or else.
Remember this is for every adult U S Citizen 18+ including the folks who lost their jobs at Lehman Brothers and every other company that is cutting back. And of course, for those serving in our Armed Forces.
If we're going to re-distribute wealth let's really do it...instead of trickling out a puny $1000.00 ( vote buy? ) economic incentive that is being proposed by one of our candidates for President.
If we're going to do an $85 billion bailout, let's bail out every adult U S Citizen 18+!
As for AIG, liquidate it.
Sell off its parts.
Let American General go back to being American General.
Sell off the real estate.
Let the private sector bargain hunters cut it up and clean it up.

Here's my rationale. We deserve it and AIG doesn't.
Sure it's a crazy idea that can never work.
But can you imagine the Coast-To-Coast Block Party!
How do you spell Economic Boom?
I trust my fellow adult Americans to know how to use the $85 Billion
We Deserve It Dividend more than I do the geniuses at AIG or in Washington DC.


And remember, The Birk plan only really costs $59.5 Billion because $25.5 Billion is returned instantly in taxes to Uncle Sam.


Now isn't this a better idea?

I hate to burst the bubble......but 85 billion divided by 200 million is only $425 per person. Not really enough to get excited about. :nuts:

 

[Gumby]

1112 low tick on S&P 500 with 30 minutes of trading left....HEAVY SELLING!

How low will she go?:blink:

 

[Gumby]

Some thoughts to ponder as the Senators vote for the bailout.

Henry Paulson, the Secretary of the Treasury, is the former CEO of Goldman Sachs, which stands to benefit hugely from the bailout. He received a huge severance pay when he left Goldman and is currently worth about $500 million. At the beginning of 2008 he was worth about $800 million so I would think he is paying attention as his net worth drops. The $700 billion bailout originally contained a clause in Section 8 that claimed unlimited powers for Paulson. It said, “Decisions by the Secretary (of Treasury) pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.” However, at least Congress was smart enough to remove that clause from the bill it considered and then failed to pass.


Full Story

 

[Steadygain]

Henry Paulson, the Secretary of the Treasury, is the former CEO of Goldman Sachs, which stands to benefit hugely from the bailout. He received a huge severance pay when he left Goldman and is currently worth about $500 million.

I'd say the most Powerful Man on Earth is worth more than $500 M.

The $700 billion bailout originally contained a clause in Section 8 that claimed unlimited powers for Paulson. It said, “Decisions by the Secretary (of Treasury) pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.”

I would never refer to him as the Most Powerful Man on Earth - if this wasn't in place. The MONEY is for him to do as he sees fit. He will hold the reigns and not have to hassle with anyone as he makes his decisions.

 

[Silverbird]

And down he will go, when the new President puts his choice in as Treasury Secretary. No matter who gets elected, and what party, the Secretarys change.

 

[Gumby]

Thinking about the jobs report


I believe the jobs report will come in slightly better than expected. Maybe 100,000 jobs lost....then the government will revise this bogus number next month after the election. No doubt in my mind they will cook the books before the election. The government has no credibility at this point.

The bailout bill or No Banker left behind as some call it is a joke. This piece of Sh$t is being forced upon the taxpayers and is loaded with pork in order to try and entice the house to change votes. Original bill was 3 pages and now the bill is over 450. The killer in this bill is that the bailout will be of foreign banks and holding also. Taxpayer does not stand a chance.....but neither does the market if it doesn't pass....at least in the short term.:worried:

 

[Show-me]

Exactly! June jobs report -51k and the Sept. revision -100k.

DOL don't know squat.

 

[Gumby]

S&P just breached below 1100.
Guess Wall Street didn't like their pork bailout? Or was the House in too big of a hurry to pass the bill they didn't realize what kind of pork they were eating?:nuts:

 

[Silverbird]

Too many investors jumped into the market on expecting others to jump in, and some pulled out immediately to get instant profits or cut their losses, making the market seasick. Bill is supposed to help the credit market, not the equity market. Equity effects will be indirect. Plus setting up the mechanisms called for under this bill will take a bit. Others chime in, please but I think we may see it in bonds first and not right away.