Gumby's Account Talk

Don't Fix It If It Ain't Broke But...

08/22/08 04:35




The federal Thrift Savings Plan is the biggest (and many believe best) 401(k) type plan in the nation. Depending on what the stock market does today, the TSP is the $225 billion optional retirement kitty for most active duty feds, a growing number of retirees and both active and retired members of the military.
It holds the money of Senators, Representatives, people who process Social Security claims, who sort and deliver the mail, who make and break codes and who go into outer space all the time. Also warfighters and medics, air traffic controllers, FBI agents and retired people who set up and ran multi-billion dollar federal programs.
TSP investors have a choice of five index funds (covering the U.S. and international stock markets), a bond index fund and the G-fund which is exclusive to the TSP. The G-fund is made up of guaranteed U.S. Treasury securities that are not available to folks outside the TSP.
When it was set up experts believed the TSP would provide about one-third of the post-retirement income of its active (and smart or lucky) investors. Now some TSP watchers say it could be half their retirement spending money.
Many financial experts believe the TSP is the best investment program of its kind. That was the subject of yesterday's column.
We asked readers if you are happy with the TSP, or if you would like some more bells and whistles. Most who responded said leave-it-alone. But not everybody. Here are some cover-the-waterfront comments:
"I think the TSP could be even better. They are very strict on the withdrawal of your money from the fund. You have to decide if you want part of it in an annuity at the time you start withdrawals. They won't let you get an annuity later on. You can't change the amount of your monthly withdrawals {more than} once a year. They are not very flexible with the withdrawal options, is the only complaint I have. Other than that, it's a great fund." James of the USPS
"The TSP mix of investments is just fine as is. The folks who want to add other investment choices (and thereby drive up management fees) are probably the same 3,000 bozos who are whining because they can no longer adjust their accounts on an hourly basis." Gary G. from CBP
"My compliments on your choices of guest writers.....particularly Stan! Please leave the TSP fund alone. Simple is easy and inexpensive (as complimented by the pros) ...but only if it stays simple. I think the KISS method of doing things was invented for me. Thanks," Dave @ IRS
"Mike - I'm very happy with the TSP, especially the low fees. Any investor who doesn't like the TSP can take their funds and invest them elsewhere. Let's keep it simpler and maintain the low fees. Let others chase whatever exotic funds there are out there!" Catherine




Notice there is no negative posts about the current TSP. Can you believe some of those comments.......Like 3000 bozos adjusting their account on a hourly basis.
 
Locking in what is hopefully a small gain and going to the sidelines at 100% G with my last IFT of the month.:p
I was at 25C, 25S, 50I.

There is not enough good news to keep this market going up.
 
"The TSP mix of investments is just fine as is. The folks who want to add other investment choices (and thereby drive up management fees) are probably the same 3,000 bozos who are whining because they can no longer adjust their accounts on an hourly basis." Gary G. from CBP

The herd is stupid. This guy is probably sitting in stocks and watched 20% of his investment disappear and says, "It's okay. It's not a loss until you sell it." When I first started on this site I was also a herd member. Now I feel like a member of a select group of informed individuals. Don't let the uninformed sway your commitment or deter your enthusiasm. I much prefer jumping into safety and watching the decline than absorb it. But that only happens if we pay attention and learn. I'll get off my soap box, but to me the bottom line is if you are beating the stocks funds for the year you are on top.
 
The herd is stupid. This guy is probably sitting in stocks and watched 20% of his investment disappear and says, "It's okay. It's not a loss until you sell it." When I first started on this site I was also a herd member. Now I feel like a member of a select group of informed individuals. Don't let the uninformed sway your commitment or deter your enthusiasm. I much prefer jumping into safety and watching the decline than absorb it. But that only happens if we pay attention and learn. I'll get off my soap box, but to me the bottom line is if you are beating the stocks funds for the year you are on top.

Yes, this guy is probably sitting in a L fund.
Myself, I prefer to move to safety when the markets appear to have topped out or there is political or other financial turmoil. I sure miss those hourly IFT'S!!!:D
 
Yes, this guy is probably sitting in a L fund.
Myself, I prefer to move to safety when the markets appear to have topped out or there is political or other financial turmoil. I sure miss those hourly IFT'S!!!:D
We can still do hourly IFT's. You can make and cancel an IFT as many times as you wish the same day before the NOON deadline. As long as you CANCEL it before it takes effect, you haven't used it.
 
Market appears to be volitile this week. It looks to me as if the March support of 1260 holds...then we might get a pop back up to maybe 1350 if oil continues to drop and their is some good news. It also looks as if we break below 1260...then a test of the July 1200 or lower is almost a given. I am fully invested in 25%C, 35%S, and 40%I and will bail if the 1260 support is broken. I am not going to ride the elevator all the way down if support is broken.:worried:


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The 1260 range was broken soundly with the S&P in the high 1240's now. After reading Corepuncher's thread, I am going to use my 2nd IFT to try and catch a bounce instead of going to the Lilly pad and lick wounds. I can always go to the Lilly later if the bounce doesn't happen. These damn IFT limits are tearing me up....thank you FRTIB for screwing all of us that want to actively manage our account.:mad: These limits make it almost impossible to catch a bounce on a regular basis.:sick:

Look at that slaughter in the I fund today. It looks tempting......I don't have enough guts for that roller coaster.
 
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For now I'm looking like the EXAMPLE - not to follow.

For someone with a "Fantasy Mind" like me: I see a reverse pattern of what happened on 6/5 to mid 7/08. That's the only reason why I'm staying put or Being Right and Sitting Tight.

If a rally occurs we are simply too close to jump - and Voo Doo mentality guarantees the Rally will happen as soon as we bail. If we get a real Rally - especially the reverse of the plunge mentioned - then I feel for all who miss it.
 
Check out the trading on the EFA (I Fund). Multiple 10,000 and 20,000 share trades at $1/2 mil to over a $mil each trade.......index is down over 4% today and has soundly busted through the 52 week low. Are the big boys back from vacation and rebalancing?????:suspicious:
 
Check out the trading on the EFA (I Fund). Multiple 10,000 and 20,000 share trades at $1/2 mil to over a $mil each trade.......index is down over 4% today and has soundly busted through the 52 week low. Are the big boys back from vacation and rebalancing?????:suspicious:

Let's hope that's the case!!

I've been expecting the EFA to take a very hard hit - as the dollar got stronger.

But our Markets should have showed some strength as Europe took a harder hit. My guess is EFA's demise is triggering the sell off here. (But don't tell anyone)
 
Isn't it impressive to lose more in one day than a person can make in a year parked in the G fund.

One of those days in the market......I lost more today than I will make in salary all month.:worried: What will the buy-N-Holders think when they look at their TSP account in the morning. I think its Miller Time for all the wrong reasons now....then again maybe it is the right reason.:nuts:

If 1/3rd of 3 million TSP holders invested in stocks lost 3% of their account today.....man that is some serious coin!:(
 
Let's hope that's the case!!

I've been expecting the EFA to take a very hard hit - as the dollar got stronger.

But our Markets should have showed some strength as Europe took a harder hit. My guess is EFA's demise is triggering the sell off here. (But don't tell anyone)

The EFA closed at 59.63 on Dec 27, 2005 and hadn't traded below 60 since June 06. It closed at 59.66 today. I wonder how those buy and hold types are feeling now, 30% loss since Oct 07. Almost makes you think a bounce is due.:rolleyes: I'm not willing to get in on that ride yet.......
 
Looks like todays rally might lose steam and falter. I think I will hold on to C & S to see if we bounce later in the week. Hurricane Ike concerns me though. These IFT limits really hurt at this time. If I make a move today....I am done for the month with G as the only option.:worried:
 
Looks like there was a whole bunch of speculation on the Sept (5) PUT options last Friday. Were there some smart investors or were they tipped off? I looked at buying in for $0.30 on Friday.....thought it was to risky :nuts:. Looks like some insider information to me. 1233% gain over the weekend would have been nice! The government sure has manipulated the markets this year. After the BSC bailout, the S&P made a nice bear market rally. Will this happen again this time? I am thinking a small rally might happen, but the action today looks like the shorts are selling most everything after the HUGE gap open this morning. When was the last time the S&P 500 opened with a gap of 2% or greater?

FNM Sep 2008 5.0000 put

(OPR: NJWUA.X)
Last Trade:4.00Trade Time:12:15PM ETChange:
up_g.gif
3.70 (1233.33%)
Prev Close

Open interest 34,165 contracts
 
Fannie and Freddie - will undoubtedly be broken up into smaller pieces "fully under the government's control". You can be certain the ones that have been in control of Fannie/Freddie are the ones most disappointed with their loss of control.


Posted (Predicted) on 7/24/08

Became are reality on 9/6/08

I initially thought the Fannie/Freddie "take over" would do way more to spur the economy and saw the Markets as merely going through a 'Correction' on 7/24/08.

Only in the recent weeks did the picture become clearer and the real evidence of a BEAR MARKET become apparent - and that is why I moved to G Fund.

I fully agree with Uptrend in the TSP Strategy for now and the relatively near future. We are likely entering a real BEAR MARKET - and G Fund is the best option in a BEAR MARKET.
 
Posted (Predicted) on 7/24/08

Became are reality on 9/6/08

I initially thought the Fannie/Freddie "take over" would do way more to spur the economy and saw the Markets as merely going through a 'Correction' on 7/24/08.

Only in the recent weeks did the picture become clearer and the real evidence of a BEAR MARKET become apparent - and that is why I moved to G Fund.

I fully agree with Uptrend in the TSP Strategy for now and the relatively near future. We are likely entering a real BEAR MARKET - and G Fund is the best option in a BEAR MARKET.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Steadygain
Fannie and Freddie - will undoubtedly be broken up into smaller pieces "fully under the government's control". You can be certain the ones that have been in control of Fannie/Freddie are the ones most disappointed with their loss of control.



Steady,

Several of us thought that the bailout would happen.....I for one did think it would happen but didn't know when. I agree with what you are saying except for the last sentence. I think the most disappointed are the shareholders that actually thought Paulson's bazooka would only be brandished and not fired. The CEO's that lost control will be rewarded handsomely with their golden parachute worth millions at taxpayer's expense. As I stated on July 24 earlier in this thread, I believe when the smoke clears the mirror, this bailout will be the largest in history. :mad:
 
My friend this is not a 'Bail Out' - this is a 'TAKE OVER'

The Bail Outs that have occured since 10/07 are just that - with Billions and Billions going to recue numerous Financial Institutions.

But this is different altogether. The price tag is by by the biggest in history - but honestly it is long overdue. This is the most important step in long term economic stability and by far the greatest move for the Financial Sector. But rough times will follow because we've largely been able to cloud the picture by making it appear we were largely correcting the big obstacles (Bear Stearns) as they occured.

That's why I shrugged it all off and thought: "No big deal, it's simply a correction".
 
It is a takeover, yes, and had to be done. The problem I have with it is the U.S. Government has a history of not being good at running a business. Contrary to the slogan you can't run a Government like a business - we shouldn't be out to make a profit, and that is what business is about. Day to day operations in the end will have to go to the private sector. So this is a temporary fix - I hope - and that is what the pundits are saying. I'm hoping this is truely temporary, and Fannie and Freddie don't stay stuck in the Government because we can't decide what to do with them.

Ok Paulson, you caught the car, and you want us to hang on until the next Administration. As someone who works in Commerce I am very very worried about that, because you've made no decision what to do with the car until after you're gone. :(
 
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