Now our primary trend is a confirmed bear market. So that makes a primary bear, secondary bear, and short term bear. Goldilocks is dead on the Dow chart with a close below the August close.
I'm thinking that bullish sign on money stream in the OEX on Tuesday, was a lot of flight to quality heading to KO, MO, MCD, PG, etc. We'll still have some gigantic updays, but like the past few weeks, those greens days (or even hours) I'll be locking in for profits. I really don't see a runaway market to the upside on a technical level.
Fundamentally, the consumer may be able to provide a holiday rally... but I'm pretty certain this bull is dead. There really has been no signs of any massive institutional accumulation... but we really haven't had a clear-cut capitulation point like that August candlestick. If anyone saw Dennis Gartman's commentary on Fast Money, he basically was saying the same things (dead bull, and no sign of a major capitulation point)... the faces on Macke, Adame, etc., were as if someone just stole their Xmas tree. None of them countered him, and they all just agreed he's pretty smart and ahead of the curve. Gartman has pretty much been on the money in his assessment of the markets since April. He did say he's long MSFT and APPL (and still bullish selective big tech) short the financials and still buying some gold on the dips but not as heavily as before.
Let's hope a black Friday leads to a green Christmas! Hoping for a fundamental miracle to save the market.