Griffin Account Talk

[Geaux4it]

I have been resting in the G fund since COB Monday. If the S&P goes again below 1420 in the next half hour, I will pick up a few shares of C & S. As of now looks like it is bouncing off the 1420.

Geaux

 

[fedgolfer]

Regarding dow theory and the 5 year bull, the DIA is only about midway point between its upper and lower trendlines on the 5-year. You'd think this wouldn't be as significant as the S&P 500, since the dow is only 30 stocks. I doubt the big money is waiting for a bounce off the bottom of that trendline? But, if they are we've got a bit to go. Most of us have been eyeballing the S&P as the leading indicator. Of course if we did hit that bottom trendline in the DIA, the SPY would have already broken that line of support. Thoughts?

 

[Bullitt]

Seems to me that SPY, QQQQ and NYSE are the more prominent market indicators. DIA/DJIA is just more or less just a basket of US stocks.

 

[Griffin]

Regarding dow theory and the 5 year bull, the DIA is only about midway point between its upper and lower trendlines on the 5-year. You'd think this wouldn't be as significant as the S&P 500, since the dow is only 30 stocks. I doubt the big money is waiting for a bounce off the bottom of that trendline? But, if they are we've got a bit to go. Most of us have been eyeballing the S&P as the leading indicator. Of course if we did hit that bottom trendline in the DIA, the SPY would have already broken that line of support. Thoughts?

The DJIA has several problems when it comes to being representative of the entire market. The primary one is the way it accounts for market capitalization (the actual value of the stocks). The DJIA is price weighted (so a really expensive stock has equal weight to a cheap stock - equal $ movements have the same effect, regardless of the % of move - a movement in one of it's more expensive componenets will move it faster then a movement in one of it's cheaper components) and it has a tendency to blow things out of proportion or significantly understate things. The S&P 500 is value weighted (it adjusts to what is actually available for sale in the stock market) so it is much more representative of the actual market movement. The DJIA is also subject to fligt-to-quality issues - so when the market drops, the DJIA typically fares better because of the rush into those easily available monster stocks.

 

[fedgolfer]

Thx, you da man!

Happy Thanksgiving to all!!!!

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

Greetings Grif....

You have a nice mix of TA and macro fundimentals that I enjoy reading.

I've come to believe fundimentals are the canvas and background, and TA is the brush strokes that changes the way the painting is perceived in the moment.

I think the Big Boys may have decided we're going into a period of contracted growth, if not full out recession, despite the TV Pieholes' commentary that "the market" doesn't know which way it wants to go.

I think they may be manufacturing this intra-day volatility for some hefty profits because we might spend quite some time flat, with little excitement/volatility after they take us down to where we're going.

If they are wrong, they still win because they'll have an even easier time leading the sheep to slaughter on the way back up.....good luck to you.

 

[Griffin]

Folks,

Have a happy and sleepy Thanksgiving.

God bless your families and friends.

 

[phillyfed]

If I'm "out to lunch" at least I'm not alone .

This is really a no brainer - the Fed is still talking slowdown, the hedge funds can cry all they want about their subprime losses, but the big picture is not recessionary (yet). I expect the 5 year to hold - but the way we are easing down to it, makes me suspect that we won't see an explosive recovery - it could be a long climb out.

"but the way we are easing down to it, makes me suspect that we won't see an explosive recovery"

You hit the nail on the head. With todays open, I was hoping for a 300+ pt loss up until 2pm or so and then we get a triple gains rally that would make perfect sense at the support levels. A 450 point swing day to signal some capitulation of March-August bottoms. Then early next week, we test it again. Instead we get the slow 100-200 pt. down days. Thats about 8 or so out of the last 11 (and 2 of the good days were last min. minor up days). As you noted earlier, the slower these downward moves go, the more intense they tend to end up. Im in 100% stocks in my TSP. 70% in my Aetna and about 85% in my stockpickers account starting today because I was anticipating a bounce off the support levels around 1400 on the S&P plus the overwhelming odds of the market being up 44 out of the last 55 times around Thanksgiving day. I thought that was good for atleast a deadcat bounce :suspicious:

I know people dont want to hear this but we need a 500+ pt selloff or a huge intraday swing to signal a classic bottom confirming capitulation. A huge number to headline. Thats the only reason why the Dow still carries wait IMO. It makes a better headline. DOW DOWN 500 POINTS. This gets the retail investor nervous, they sell then the market pops. Instead we keep selling off our rallys with no real Capitulation. At this level, what happened today is troubling. From past history It is often an indicator that the Institutions are not expecting the classic 10 pt correction but something much deeper.

Im still holding my ground for Friday. After that, Im pulling out 30% either way as I see the big money coming back in Monday after the Holiday and putting this market in its place.

Thats enough money B.S. for me until Friday.

Happy Holidays to all!

 

[Reactive1]

Yea, I'm not sure we can know for sure what happens in the short term. In the technical analysis posted in another thread, what's shown if I remember right is LOW VOLUME volatility testing intra-day lows, popping, retesting, and then high volume coming in at the end of the day to crash the S&P, and falling further in after hours trading, I believe. That does not sound good to me. Friday will tell us nothing IMO with a half-day and low volume. I don't know how anyone could possibly feel comfortable short term here, but at the same time it's very possible that those of us on the outside could miss a huge rally. I lean toward more of a down-trend personally, especially with the lows we saw on the DOW today, but with the great unknown of the FED decision on Dec. 11...how can we know, and even with a rate cut, the further damage to the dollar on that news may not even help the markets beyond a short rally (if we even get that). The FED rate should be lower, but to lower it for the wrong reason? I don't know.......I just don't know.

 

[fedgolfer]

Now our primary trend is a confirmed bear market. So that makes a primary bear, secondary bear, and short term bear. Goldilocks is dead on the Dow chart with a close below the August close.

I'm thinking that bullish sign on money stream in the OEX on Tuesday, was a lot of flight to quality heading to KO, MO, MCD, PG, etc. We'll still have some gigantic updays, but like the past few weeks, those greens days (or even hours) I'll be locking in for profits. I really don't see a runaway market to the upside on a technical level.

Fundamentally, the consumer may be able to provide a holiday rally... but I'm pretty certain this bull is dead. There really has been no signs of any massive institutional accumulation... but we really haven't had a clear-cut capitulation point like that August candlestick. If anyone saw Dennis Gartman's commentary on Fast Money, he basically was saying the same things (dead bull, and no sign of a major capitulation point)... the faces on Macke, Adame, etc., were as if someone just stole their Xmas tree. None of them countered him, and they all just agreed he's pretty smart and ahead of the curve. Gartman has pretty much been on the money in his assessment of the markets since April. He did say he's long MSFT and APPL (and still bullish selective big tech) short the financials and still buying some gold on the dips but not as heavily as before.

Let's hope a black Friday leads to a green Christmas! Hoping for a fundamental miracle to save the market.

 

[Steadygain]

Enjoyed reading the most recent posts. This is by far one of my favorite threads and usually the information here is very solid, deep, and understandable. This is certainly what I hoped to find by joining the MB - My sincerest thanks to everyone.

 

[fedgolfer]

sorry to pollute your thread Grif, but after re-reading my previous post, I sounded extremely bearish, which I am on the long term. But, I think we're overdue for a bounce especially with sentiment so bearish. What I don't want to happen is to be on the wrong side of that capitulation point on the next turn. I'm willing to be a day late in TSP until I see the big signal, but place a conditional buy order in my trading accounts to take advantage of the intraday price/volume surge on a hammer candlestick.

I'm 100% C now but not so sure about holding steady until 1490, like Grif is. If I see volume agree with Grif's hold to 1490, I'll jump back in. But I have a feeling I'll get scared and cash out in hopes of locking green.

 

[GGal]

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dow-theory-sell-signal-may/story.aspx?guid={8327785F-23A6-4179-AE03-7D3F2A4DC8FB}

Griffin, what do you think about the Dow theory sell signal? Please don't be offended, I am asking other's opinion also.

Thx
GGAL

 

[Griffin]

Folks,

I have started a brief on my strategy for what I intend to cover the upcoming week. I apologize for the grammer mistakes. The first run is a bit lengthy and if you follow my thread you can pretty much skip the first paragraph. I will clean it up and keep it shorter in the future. thanks for your read and don't forget to give the ads a click .

I am going to try and incorporate the new IFT restrictions into my strategy since the radical "by mail" punishment TSP is enacting - is absolutely devestating. Do not misktake my planning for these restrictions as capitulation. I view them as temporary problem and I will remain fully engaged in that conflict.

http://www.tsptalk.com/griffin/

 

[ATCJeff]

Great brief Griffin.

Jeff

 

[Uptrend]

Folks,

I am going to try and incorporate the new IFT restrictions into my strategy since the radical "by mail" punishment TSP is enacting - is absolutely devestating. Do not misktake my planning for these restrictions as capitulation. I view them as temporary problem and I will remain fully engaged in that conflict.

Why? Until we get the nasty letter, keep trading! TSP won't restrict until a warning. Meanwhile, we all need to be writing our Congressmen.

 

[Griffin]

Why? Until we get the nasty letter, keep trading! TSP won't restrict until a warning. Meanwhile, we all need to be writing our Congressmen.

I have executed 78 IFT's this year, which is about 6 IFT's a month. At the beginning of last year I tried to go to a less active system and found that it really wasn't that viable. However, I have also recognized that, some of my moves were relatively pointless in the grand scheme of things. I would like to get my methodology adjusted so I am trading less frequently also - I want to at least be concious of the when I have exceeded the proposed limit - it might be useful info - if I ever to go back and calculate "damages".

I won't be one of the folks getting a letter because I rarely ever use the I-fund and Mrs. ray's focus was on that particular fund. As it currently stands, Title 5 makes limiting IFT's illegal - however, The TSP Board appears to be the proponent for those regulations, so they can go back and change them.

Have no doubts, I am absolutely in the fight to preserve our trading options.

 

[whitemingo]

Griffin,

In your commentary, which was very good, you mentioned that you were considering going back to G/F. Any more thoughts on that IFT?

 

[Griffin]

there were two trigger points I have for making a move in the G/F - one, was if the market brokedown below 1400 - which it tagged yesterday (the bottom of the five year channel). As we currently stand this is the move that is on deck, should the five year channel collapse.

The alternative move to the G/F that I discussed in the brief is when we get to 1490 - However, it doesn't look like were going to get to that point in the decision tree this week.

If the five year channel holds - yesterday's close was the bottom, so Today, we should be seeing the makings (or at least the beginning) of a rally/recovery. Hang on Folks and don't let this bull buck you unless it morphs into a bear (drops below 1400).

 

[Griffin]

I think a decision tree would probably help clarify my strategy.

View attachment 2701

Right now we are in the far left blue diamond waiting to see if the 5 year channel will breakdown - or we will move to 1460.