Griffin Account Talk

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whitemingo said:
Griffin,

Are you in the G or the F? Tracker shows you in the F.
Click to expand...

I'm in the G per my account thread but I forgot to load the IFT into the autotracker - so it's still showing me in the F.

I apologize for that - if you didn't follow my into the G from the F, you should be a happy camper tonight, expect at least 5 cents/share :)

If you did follow, at least were not in stocks ;)
 
Griffin,

I have been following your thread...G Fund. It was just a question maybe you considered safety being G/F. I am in the capital preservation mode at this point. I may roll the dice for Wednesday and Friday just a bit. I will have to see how the market moves tomorrow.
 
vectorman said:
Looks like DJTA and SOXX have broken through key supports. The BKX is just .27 from breaking through its key support as of this post time. The VIX is in a real tight range and is about to break-out soon. Since the SPX broke down through the neckline of an inverse H&S do you see it in a short ralley to backtest for resistence or the 1450?

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=DJTA

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=BKX

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=SOXX

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=VIX
Click to expand...

The reverse H&S goes back to the discussion of the short term bottom pattern - if it would be a double or a triple with lowest low being in the middle. Subsequently, the neckline of that reverse H&S is 1490. What that suggests is more volatility - maybe even some playable volatility. However, if find that you managed to snatch the bottom (if there is a lower low coming shortly) then you want to consider just hanging in there. Ebb made a tremendous set of moves last time yielding a 5% gain in about a little over a week. So it's possible to play the volatility, I'm not sure if I will, I just want to pounce on that bottom.
 
Here we go

View attachment 2630

Yee-haw!

Were right on target to hit rock bottom right as the Fed minutes come out........score one for the red team.

Somebody hand Ben a handkerchief to wipe to the spit out of his eye.
 
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Grif, I like the way you've been playing/analyzing the markets -- especially the past few days of patient CP. I bit today for tomorrow though in TSP assuming afternoon -FV... I only put 50% in though. Will you buy back in at 1411 or 1406'ish in the S&P... or do you foresee a close in the near short term at the 1370 area on the August hammer's lower wick?

Still no broad based accumulation on any of the recent mini bounces... just very isolated large volume bars for quick swing trades...nothing so overwhelming it could be presumed to be significant accumulation for a long swing trade in TSP. maybe we'll see those on 1411, 1406 or 1370? That's when I go 100%.
 
fedgolfer said:
Grif, I like the way you've been playing/analyzing the markets -- especially the past few days of patient CP. I bit today for tomorrow though in TSP assuming afternoon -FV... I only put 50% in though. Will you buy back in at 1411 or 1406'ish in the S&P... or do you foresee a close in the near short term at the 1370 area on the August hammer's lower wick?

Still no broad based accumulation on any of the recent mini bounces... just very isolated large volume bars for quick swing trades...nothing so overwhelming it could be presumed to be significant accumulation for a long swing trade in TSP. maybe we'll see those on 1411, 1406 or 1370? That's when I go 100%.
Click to expand...

I was waiting for something close to 1400 and now we have had 5 days of consecutive lower intraday lows and I'm thinking we've got a seasonality issue that is going to put a halt to this slide. I am probably going all in tomorrow regardless, come Friday the holiday buying season starts.

We are now so close to the bottom of the five year channel that we could tag it fairly easily and rebound. The bears are running out of steam and it seems a consensus is building that this is not going to breakdown the five year channel. The smart money is buying their hearts out. TV.N is a 4.8 million today, that's got to be in the "once in a blue moon category".

My plan as it currently stands is once I'm in (I'm going in the C) I will make one shift to the S-fund, somewhere around 1490. The action of the last two days has me leaning towards the H&S pattern - suggesting the next run up (which will make the right shoulder) could take us as far as 1530. That's a broad based look at what I expect will take us well into holidays, maybe even through the new year.
 
Griffin said:
I was waiting for something close to 1400 and now we have had 5 days of consecutive lower intraday lows and I'm thinking we've got a seasonality issue that is going to put a halt to this slide. I am probably going all in tomorrow regardless, come Friday the holiday buying season starts.

We are now so close to the bottom of the five year channel that we could tag it fairly easily and rebound. The bears are running out of steam and it seems a consensus is building that this is not going to breakdown the five year channel. The smart money is buying their hearts out. TV.N is a 4.8 million today, that's got to be in the "once in a blue moon category".

My plan as it currently stands is once I'm in (I'm going in the C) I will make one shift to the S-fund, somewhere around 1490. The action of the last two days has me leaning towards the H&S pattern - suggesting the next run up (which will make the right shoulder) could take us as far as 1530. That's a broad based look at what I expect will take us well into holidays, maybe even through the new year.
Click to expand...

I'm thinking on the same lines as you. I stayed out mostly until the past few trading sessions. I went all in today. C will lead us out IMO. S will follow if the 1490 trades through. Only difference in thinking is my belief that 1490 will be tested but not broken through until early next year. I see us not testing the old highs until the 4th qtr numbers prove otherwise. By years end my best guess is 1470. I'll gladly take the 4% :)
 
I'm kicking myself for speculating a close at <1411 yesterday and allocating some funds to TSP stocks. The patient thing to do would have been to pull up a weekly chart and wait for the candlestick to rebound/hit off the 5-year bottom trendline. I bit early. Nice patience, Grif.

Oh, the Nas/QQQQs had a nice candlestick yesterday, possibly signaling a reversal soon. R2k also appears to be putting in a double bottom (736 area), but will need some convincing volume to prove it. The worden bros software which I can only check at night, does not reflect any instituional buying in balance of power, money stream or time segmented volume, on SPY, QQQQs, or the DIA. BUT, the OEX (S&P 100) did signal a reversal in money stream which is the first bullish sign for some money coming back into the markets. All this basically confirms what Grif has said before: we're close and some big boys are starting to nibble. Still, no across the board accumulation.
 
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fedgolfer said:
I'm kicking myself for speculating a close at <1411 yesterday and allocating some funds to TSP stocks. The patient thing to do would have been to pull up a weekly chart and wait for the candlestick to rebound/hit off the 5-year bottom trendline. I bit early. Nice patience, Grif.
Click to expand...

Just because it might seem like I was patient yesterday - appearances can be decieveing. :) I was kicking myself for not moving in, when it started to tank in the afternoon. It really looked like we were going to tag the bottom. I'm very suprised that it didn't go lower, but the volume was huge, it's as close to the bottom as any fund manager needs to start their buying.

I'm moving into the C-fund today - I expect we will drop to yesterdays intraday low (1420's) right out the gate this morning. What happens after that is anyone's guess. Wall street will probably punch out early today so late day, dumb money, light volume could send this thing anywhere. let's hope for a little panic today and cooler heads on Friday.
 
fedgolfer said:
I'm kicking myself for speculating a close at <1411 yesterday and allocating some funds to TSP stocks. The patient thing to do would have been to pull up a weekly chart and wait for the candlestick to rebound/hit off the 5-year bottom trendline. I bit early. Nice patience, Grif.
Click to expand...

Dow futures currently down 133 pts as I write this.....

Im in the same boat now. I waited until today to go in 100%

Might as well hang in here. Once we bouce, the level we closed at yesterday will easily be passed. Im buying some stocks at the open. IMO, we are closing higher today. Yeah, I said it. :nuts:
 
fedgolfer said:
Grif, see my post above regarding volume. I added an edit.
Click to expand...

If I'm "out to lunch" at least I'm not alone :).

This is really a no brainer - the Fed is still talking slowdown, the hedge funds can cry all they want about their subprime losses, but the big picture is not recessionary (yet). I expect the 5 year to hold - but the way we are easing down to it, makes me suspect that we won't see an explosive recovery - it could be a long climb out.
 
Folks - I went 100% C-fund. I'm grabbing the bull by the horns while it's down and I'm not going to get bucked.

1490 or BUST. :D
 
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