Griffin Account Talk

[hessian]

Hey Fog,
Still Up?? Hey Check up Point & figure charts at James38843's Talk
Maybe something you can help w. (James went to bed) - me too ssoon.

 

[FogSailing]

I'm still up Hessian...watching the bad news to the far east...

I'm on the sidelines tomorrow..I think James has it right...if we fall below 1440 tomorrow, next stop is 1390...then 1350...then 1270..

I'm with Show-Me on this one...Standing by for a buying opportunity..

I'm waiting until Monday to figure this out..It could go south..or if the Fed caves to the Wall Street sharks...we could see a huge day and possible stabilization of the market until January...when inflation and a falling dollar and rising oil will double kick us in the teeth..sheesh..

GL tomorrow Hesh..

FS

 

[Griffin]

I just noticed something so simple. Since you mentioned the MACD, Griffin, I thought I'd point out further that the crossing of the fast/slow MACD lines pretty well signaled the reversals in both March and August.

That is pretty much how the MACD is suppsed to work, however, it has a bit of a lag time. When you couple that lag time with our noon deadline lag time, you will end up chasing the market most of the time if you try to use this as a system.

The excitement just won't end..Tomorrow we see whether we fall under 1440 or move up from here..

Option 1: We get the DCB tomorrow and move up (Good luck to those of you who took the risk tomorrow). Monday's economic calendar is empty so we'll be subject to whatever news is being sold over the weekend. I don't like it..so I'm smelling the fear..

Option 2: If we fall below 1440, I'll stay out until the P and H charts or the news gives us a signal that the downward trend is reversing...a further downturn could take us into down to 1400, then 1350..

IMO, if the Wall Strret captains want more rate cuts, Monday will be a bust. If I were in their shoes, I'd want things to look as bad as I could. If they need liquidity, I'd say that we'll be hearing about the lack of it..

It will be interesting..

FS

I suspect that we will end the day at 1400, that gives the FOMC and all the talking heads all weekend to contemplate an emergency rate cut.

That would take a tremendously bad day and if we don't get a crapper out of the industrial reports, then be on the look out for someone floating a major turd shortly after the opening bell.

This is a bit premature but, if we drop below 1400 - look for support around 1370. I think 1400 will hold and I will buy it (so many people will )

A close look at the VIX shows the pattern is very similar to the last major push down. If it repeats itself, we should see it spike into the high 30's in the next couple of days.

 

[Show-me]

Show Me: You have become a man of few words...and excellent returns..

Congrats on your good investment decisions recently dude!!! If you buy in, I'll probably be right behind you.. but as of now, I'm sitting tight until I see which way the train is going

FS

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then, but thank you for you kind words.

 

[nnuut]

Hey Show, # 2 is GREAT, what is your secret, eating lots of honey?:worried:

 

[Show-me]

I'm working on it, but have a long, long way to go before I catch up with the leaders.

 

[Griffin]

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Besides the three Fed speeches, Paulson spoke in South Africa and deputy/assistant sec of the Treasury was just on CNBC and even GW's been chiming in here and there. It is a full court press on their talking points -
1) The Economy is strong and growing,
2) The dollar is undervalued (there not quite using that term but that's what they mean) and the US Policy on the dollar is strong.
3) The subprime problem will continue, but we will get through the resets and move on.
4) The problems with 1) and 2) are primarily related to 3).

Now, we know 1) is somewhat true but there is definitely evidence that the economy is contracting and growth is slowing. Point 2) is indictive that further rate cuts may not be forthcoming and Finally 3) seems reasonably true.

Point 4) hmmmm.....I got real heartburn with that one, (in part it is true)- a lot of the dollar weakenss is stemming from excessive spending and high oil. Oil is high because of the war. Spending is high because of the war. Fixing the subprime problem won't fix the dollar although it will help.

So what's the blue team view (the government) - no breaking of the 5 year bull channel, a strengthing dollar, a moderating economy with future expansion.

Now, the red team (business) gets a vote. - and they been stumpin' pretty hard, and winning thus far. Will they sit in their fox hole over the next few days, or will they execute a counterstrike? All this fuss from the blue team reiterates what we expect to see in the FOMC minutes - so the minutes are no longer relevant to the blue teams campaign - they are on stand-to and will remain on the defensive and it certainly does not sound like they are thinking about an emergency rate cut. If the red team wants to win this fight - they need to strike hard but they can also bide their time (because the minutes are irrelevant). Blue team can not achieve victory, they only fight to prevent from losing.

game on.

 

[fedgolfer]

nice post Grif... you played a lot of Risk as a kid, huh?

 

[Griffin]

nice post Grif... you played a lot of Risk as a kid, huh?

Actually it's an Army thing - called JANUS (http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/issues/2003/Nov/Successful_War.htm

but yeah - I like war games.

 

[fedgolfer]

hypothetical, if we see capitulation and some deep red -- y'all buying back in or exercising more patience?

 

[FogSailing]

If we see "deep" red today FG, I'll probably buy in to the tune of 50%...otherwise I'm on the sidelines until Monday...

I just don't like getting wrangled around like this...and I think the sharks are going to have a temper tantrum if they don't see some move to provide additional measures to put more "cheap" liquidity back into the market..

Interesting times...sure doesn't feel like the holidays yet..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

That's what I call SELLING THE FEAR...

Interesting thing...markets just went Green...looks like they aren't buying the news..

Whatever happened to the Days of Wine and Roses....

FS

 

[Griffin]

Is this the floater you were alluding to?

This morning, Bloomberg.com reported that Goldman Sachs sees the slump in global credit mkts forcing banks, brokerages and hedge funds to cut lending by $2 trillion, triggering the risk of a "substantial recession.
''http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/briefing/StockTicker.aspx

That is exactly the type of thing I was thinking of .

I'm holding off while the big boys sit down and contemplate taking over the world and a bowl of sushi. The pain comes after lunch or in the final hour :notrust:.

It's better to wait and miss a little then get caught in the line of fire.

 

[fedgolfer]

qqqq's just broke resistance on the 5day chart... bought some GOOG. the 9.9 million shares traded on that volume bar on the qqqq's had me concerned, but the price didn't drop considerably and the Nasdaq bookviewer actually showed more buy orders than sell orders. Confirmation of maybe a short term bounce.

zooming out on the 10day qqqq's have also broken support, this bounce ain't dead.

 

[Griffin]

Easy call for me. If we bounce, I'm out. I'll protect the gain. If were down, I'm out. I said this from the begining, this is a one day play.

I do not like what I see moving forward. I'm in serious CP mode. However, I will keep playing these one day in and outs.

Looks like 1460 is going to be the apex of your kitty's flight path - if it gets above that - do you call it a sucker rally or the real deal?

 

[Griffin]

Huntington to take $300 million hit on loan loss write-off:blink:
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Huntington Bancshares said Friday that it would take up to a $300 million charge in the fourth quarter, becoming the latest financial institution to report the impact of mortgage loan losses. See full story.

Good riddance to Franklin, a fresh wave of telemarketer wanna-bees just hit the unemployment lines .

 

[nnuut]

Looks like the injection of cash yesterday did not have the desired effect. It worked last time. Who's going to win this tug of war, the big boys or Uncle Ben and the gang?

Well ah, check it out:
http://www.gmtfo.com/reporeader/OMOps.aspx

 

[Griffin]

Red team is back on the offensive today, but they really don't have any new ammunition other then a host of housing related issues. Will it be enough to take the market below 1440?

The market skipped across 1450 six times before slipping into the 1440 range last Monday. That was followed by a two day mini rally and two more days of selling. 3 of the last 5 days have seen selling in the 1440-1450 range and the Bears need a breakdown within the next couple of days or 1440 will hold.

If 1440 holds, that sets a much more positive tone for the market and we could easily see a 6-7% rally up to the previous highs. That gives us a double bottom and and a subsequent rally paves the way for the larger macro level head shoulders pattern, we have been discussing (it would form the right shoulder). This pattern will produce a fairly steep neckline, which may present a challenge later.

 

[Griffin]

I'm going to continue to hold my position in the G-fund for one more day - unfortunately, we will not get a sense of the impact of today on the rest of the week for another hour or so.

 

[vectorman]

I'm going to continue to hold my position in the G-fund for one more day - unfortunately, we will not get a sense of the impact of today on the rest of the week for another hour or so.

Looks like DJTA and SOXX have broken through key supports. The BKX is just .27 from breaking through its key support as of this post time. The VIX is in a real tight range and is about to break-out soon. Since the SPX broke down through the neckline of an inverse H&S do you see it in a short ralley to backtest for resistence or the 1450?

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=DJTA

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=BKX

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=SOXX

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=VIX