Griffin Account Talk

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SPY just broke the upper resistance line on the 4day chart... hopefully this is the turn on a multiday chart. Let's hope she holds for at least a few days... and preferably... a lot longer.

XLF led in its breakout by a couple of hours, and now its testing previous support but looking strong. QQQQs are lagging, and just now at 2:30 est, they appear to just be crossing that line of multiday resistance.

Based on this quick read we may have sector leadership in of all things, financials for the next few days (maybe).

If XLF doesn't break that previous support line (made on the afternoon low on 11/5), that's obviously a short term bearish signal that we've put in the next temporary line of resistance.
 
However, there are too many of us boomers too close to retirement to wish for a 2 year bear market and following flat market, no matter how good it might be for the nation's soul
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Not to mention the Government sold us the goods with the FERS system. If the Stock Market flat lines we will be eating beanie weenie's mixed in with cat food...... And that's thru a straw! :embarrest:

Geaux
 
If you have not been catching what's going on today, we have a dollar index making a signficant surge, oil is backing off, and we have what seems to be a bottom forming in stocks.

This morning started off looking fairly solid, then black smoke started rising over London, that caused futures to pause reverse. That was very short lived as it turned out to be a fire - no big deal.

The move to extremes by the dollar, oil and stock market are starting to generate the bargain buying mentality and we may see a short bounce soon. I would not expect any significant week long rally - I'm looking for a two maybe three day rally soon.
 
Griffin said:
If you have not been catching what's going on today, we have a dollar index making a signficant surge, oil is backing off, and we have what seems to be a bottom forming in stocks.

This morning started off looking fairly solid, then black smoke started rising over London, that caused futures to pause reverse. That was very short lived as it turned out to be a fire - no big deal.

The move to extremes by the dollar, oil and stock market are starting to generate the bargain buying mentality and we may see a short bounce soon. I would not expect any significant week long rally - I'm looking for a two maybe three day rally soon.
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Wooohooooo!!!! :nuts::DSorry.
 
Show-me said:
Wooohooooo!!!! :nuts::DSorry.
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I swear to god....it's coming.

The institutional money is adjusting their portfolios. But there is definitely something strange at work. Last Thursday, the smart money began executing buy programs, now we've had two days of the smart money selling. I guess "the plumbers" kicked in on Thursday's drop and when that effort failed to ignite a rally the big boys decided to recalibrate. Maybe that failure was deliberate. They want a rate cutting cycle and we may unfortunately be subject to their late day manipulations as they try to force that issue.

This makes timing very difficult, but with this kind of volatility, triple digit moves are probably going to be common for the months to come. This means my timing moves will be a couple a month as I try to play the larger swings and not mess with the day to day stuff.

Today's open is nice but it mearly suggests that these prices are attractive to buyers - which is a good signal that we are establishing support. However, these prices represent more of a repeat pattern of August, then a double top.

Perhaps we could see the formation of a head and shoulders pattern, with July's highs being the left should and October's highs being the head. there not much difference but it's tough to say. I see two patterns likely to develop - a double top, or a head and shoulders.

Eitherway, I expect to get whipped around here.
 
There's some major accumulation going on in XLF. Maybe most of the bad news has been flushed out?! Looks toppy on a 4 day chart though.
 
on the 10 day chart of XLF, if financials do keep breaking out from here (31.64'ish)... there are several gaps from Oct 31st through 11/6, that pushing up through those gaps probably offeres little resistance... on the flux of a bigger bullish move in financials started on the 11/8 turn-around we talked about, in my opinion.

Maybe a short term target topping out at 33.66'ish on XLF?!
 
fedgolfer said:
on the 10 day chart of XLF, if financials do keep breaking out from here (31.64'ish)... there are several gaps from Oct 31st through 11/6, that pushing up through those gaps probably offeres little resistance... on the flux of a bigger bullish move in financials started on the 11/8 turn-around we talked about, in my opinion.

Maybe a short term target topping out at 33.66'ish on XLF?!
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That looks like it could coincide with a move to around 1500 on the S&P500 which is my first tentative target to play this channel. The "sky is falling" mantra has really worn the market out the past few days all the while, the big boys have been shooting fish in the bargin barrel over at financial land. These same jack-AAzz's that have been telling everyone to stay away from financials will be reversing their position before to much longer, but first the big boys have to finish up there X(LF)-mas shopping.

Certaily there is plenty of more bad news for the financials to dish out, but it will come in waves, as the big boys manipulate things around to push for that rate cutting cycle.
 
Hey Griffin,

I'm glad to see you mention 1500. That is my target also, I just did not think we would get within 20 points of it today.

The August lows had a similar pattern and ran right up to the 200 day simple ma. I'm hope'n for a repeat. One or two more days and I'm out for the weekend.

Good luck.
 
Show-me said:
Hey Griffin,

I'm glad to see you mention 1500. That is my target also, I just did not think we would get within 20 points of it today.

The August lows had a similar pattern and ran right up to the 200 day simple ma. I'm hope'n for a repeat. One or two more days and I'm out for the weekend.

Good luck.
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It's almost so obvious that it's a no brainer - which scares me. I would really like to see 1500, but let's keep in mind that 1490 was the razors edge a week ago.

In fact it's so obvious that 1500 should be the target for this rebound, that folks may begin to sell at the first thint of a move anywhere near that range - meaning that tomorrow may very well be the best opportunity to catch what remains of a momentum play before the next move.

There is a good chance I am going to pull out tomorrow, because I can see this being very similar to August with one exception - if we get a move below 1430, all bets are off as to what happens next.
 
Hi Grif,
Just an observation: I thought your first instincts (below) seemed to me to have, well, a much different, perhaps more perceptive ring than later on.
Also, I don't know what you think of Jim Cramer, but he was on top of his game tonight - he said "this was a classic oversold rally" - not related to any earnings, reports, news, or specific events, etc. I'm just following up here, to post I made in Account Talk, because your instincts posted below sounded somewhat similar. JC's comment was that "classic oversold rallys last ~5 days."
...Just FYI
VR

Griffin said:
I swear to god....it's coming.

The institutional money is adjusting their portfolios. But there is definitely something strange at work. Last Thursday, the smart money began executing buy programs, now we've had two days of the smart money selling. I guess "the plumbers" kicked in on Thursday's drop and when that effort failed to ignite a rally the big boys decided to recalibrate. Maybe that failure was deliberate. They want a rate cutting cycle and we may unfortunately be subject to their late day manipulations as they try to force that issue.

This makes timing very difficult, but with this kind of volatility, triple digit moves are probably going to be common for the months to come. This means my timing moves will be a couple a month as I try to play the larger swings and not mess with the day to day stuff.

Today's open is nice but it mearly suggests that these prices are attractive to buyers - which is a good signal that we are establishing support.
Click to expand...
 
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Do nuutt and I deserve TUI's? (timing under the influence) :)?

Let's get serious for a moment - 2 days, 3 days, 5 days - the length of this rally is a function of the rate of change. If we punch through 1500 this morning I could be inclined to stick around but - PPI came in good which is going steal the thunder from the CPI numbers - they tend to go hand in hand.

There are two stories behind stagflation - stagnation and inflation, the CPI speaks to inflation (and could make the morning look good) but then you get New York and Philly kickin in their input - those reports are going to speak to the stagnation issue. The inflation story is looking good which is good for the rally. The market is not thrilled about the stagnation story because it is leading the market down the road towards recession. So the regional reports are either going to brake the downward pressure or add to it, I don't seem them fueling this rally. It would take them coming in signficantly above expectations and the odds do not seem to favor that outcome.

I agree with JC this an oversold rally, but I am very skeptical this rally will last 5 days. Auguest's reversals were intense and quick. Next week is building permits, which brings the housing sector back into view and that's is not a happy story, plus you got the FOMC minutes which is going to speak to why we should not expect a rate cutting cycle, again, I don't see any fuel there.

We may not see any big red for 5 days, but your going to get the bulk of your green in the next day or two. I doen't see this turning into a V reversal. At a minimum I see a retest of the lows, but I am absolutely expecting a lower low within the next 5 to 10 days. I will be the first to admit that I am not good at playing these bottoms. So I am not going to try to make the perfect play - just a good one.

hessian said:
Hi Grif,
Just an observation: I thought your first instincts (below) seemed to me to have, well, a much different, perhaps more perceptive ring than later on.
Also, I don't know what you think of Jim Cramer, but he was on top of his game tonight - he said "this was a classic oversold rally" - not related to any earnings, reports, news, or specific events, etc. I'm just following up here, to post I made in Account Talk, because your instincts posted below sounded somewhat similar. JC's comment was that "classic oversold rallys last ~5 days."
...Just FYI
VR
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Hi Griffin,
Myself, as many others on this MB, respect your views. I posted in James' post that my personal strategy was to bail early - likely Thur (maybe Fri.) - so I totally agree with your assessment (also for same reasons).

I recognize I'm just a beginner at this, so I would never even attempt to advise anyone on what they should do/think. I only wanted to pass along perspective, in this case that of a seasoned pro (JC), as I thought it was relevant - and then, only for consideration/additonal perspective.:)
VR!
 
hessian said:
Hi Griffin,
Myself, as many others on this MB, respect your views. I posted in James' post that my personal strategy was to bail early - likely Thur (maybe Fri.) - so I totally agree with your assessment (also for same reasons).

I recognize I'm just a beginner at this, so I would never even attempt to advise anyone on what they should do/think. I only wanted to pass along perspective, in this case that of a seasoned pro (JC), as I thought it was relevant - and then, only for consideration/additonal perspective.:)
VR!
Click to expand...

This is a peer board - I'm just offering my opinion and I get it wrong too. The key here is consensus, I think as a whole, we tend to get it right. (although the sentiment survey is actually based on a contradiction :)).

Keep it up!

There is definitely validity to what JC is saying - In August, these waves came in week long runs - but there was a LOT of whipping around in those weeks. You could very easily get bucked off - I'm not comfortable trying to play that action.
 
Well I started to waffle on my move to a CP position (I did make the move - 100% into the F). There is reason to suspect that we could see a few more green days ahead, but I also believe we have much stronger possibility of seeing a retest soon and I really like the idea of bidding my time in the F fund, waiting for a the moment to pounce on the retest/new low.
 
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