Griffin Account Talk

[kaitlinsnana]

Great move, Griffin. Wish I'd tagged seen it to tag along.

Good man.

Gail

 

[Griffin]

The I-fund came in at 1.49% compared to the EFA's 1.51% so that means, the above graphic is accurate.

Australia is making some decent gains but Japan is really lagging. I'm suprised that the OSM's don't seem to be following suite behind the US. With a .72% FV waiting to correct tomorrow, if the OSMs all lag, it could make for an opportunity to buy back into the I-fund while the market pauses. Just a thought - the Eurozone is still very likely to pop.

Not only did the Eurozone fail to pop, it fizzled and died. It is very likely that I will move back into the I-fund today. Barring a significant change in direction from this morning, the I-fund is going to get crushed tonight, creating what could be a great buying opportunity. Or set up for a move down. Either way I'm moving today and my CP move will be to the G unless the TNX has a huge move up today. This is why I am leary of the F-fund (remember there is an inverse relationship between the TNX and the F-fund - there is lots of room for the TNX to move upward but there is the potential resistance around 4.46-4.47).
View attachment 2429

 

[Show-me]

Griffin,
I know you know this, but watch out for the dollar. It has taken a beating and a relief rally will dilute and gains. IMO, it is due some relief.

 

[Griffin]

Griffin,
I know you know this, but watch out for the dollar. It has taken a beating and a relief rally will dilute and gains. IMO, it is due some relief.

I've been thinking the same thing for almost a year now and every time the dollar goes lower, I stop and tell myself, that's as low as it can go....it can't go any lower - the world will explode :nuts:...and then it goes lower.

Let's face it the US Yuan , is destined for the bottom of the barrell. With all the money we borrow from the Chinese to **** away anywhere but here, how can you sanely calculate what a reasonable bottom is?

 

[Show-me]

True.

 

[Griffin]

Reuters:
"The dollar slid to a fresh all-time low against the euro and a basket of currencies after comments from senior Chinese officials stirred concerns the central bank might shift reserves away from the U.S. currency. At 1200 GMT, the euro <EUR=> was at $1.4677."
"The main problem is not really the impact on European companies' earnings, even though some sectors such as aerospace and autos are suffering. It's more that the dollar's slump is a sign that, behind the crisis in the banking sector, there is a crisis looming in the financing of the U.S. deficit," said Romain Boscher, head of equity management at Groupama Asset Management, in Paris.
"The U.S. already faces problems to absorb losses in the subprime mortgage market, and now they might face problems related to the financing of their deficit. The question is: how long will the rest of the world agree to finance the U.S. deficit?"

They just figured this out?:toung:

Keep in mind, the US has never defaulted on a payment - even when we have been at war with a country that were paying the debt to. We have literally made payments to countries that we are at war with while we were at war, now that's triple A credit!

Since the current administration has decided to use all that good faith to borrow money from our traditional communist enemy to give to our new "enemies bribed into friends", hey everybody wins except us and we pick up the tab....with interest. At some point the party will end and it's starting to look like that's gonna be sooner then later.

Like any good party - the natural inclination is to hang in their until the end (or until you get what you came for). You don't want to over stay your welcome and get stuck mopping the floor and cleaning up the beer cans in the morning!

 

[Griffin]

According to 350z, the I fund is now down 11 cents or about .4% which is close to what the EFA is showing. The dollar is stepping into cut down the losses and significantly hampering a play on the FVC.

When you compare this to the domestics, it looks like the place to be (should we continue to rally) is in the US stocks unless your expecting another significant move down in the dollar. I do think the dollar will take a break, it's gone far the last couple of days.

I am NOT going to move back into the I-fund, instead I am going to stay with the domestics in the S-fund. There is too much of a chance of picking up another FV in the I-fund to risk the move back in that direction.

 

[FundSurfer]

I thoughts a DX of $80 was really bad. We are now at $75.

I think the recent decline has a lot to do with oil price rise. This increases our trading deficit a lot.

Think about it, would you want to hold $$ right now? The dollar has lost 12% over the last year. 17% over the last two years.

Like Griffin, I've been thinking the dollar should turn around. I now don't think that is going to happen till the war ends and troops come home. Then the country can get back to the business of balancing the books.

 

[offtrack]

I am NOT going to move back into the I-fund, instead I am going to stay with the domestics in the S-fund. There is too much of a chance of picking up another FV in the I-fund to risk the move back in that direction.

I am thinking of staying in one more day as planned as well but things are looking bleak. If we take a hit tomorrow, Friday looks tough with pending home sales reporting after the holiday. I'm going to wait till last minute to decide

 

[Silverbird]

I agree that the dollar will not turn around as long as this administration continues to throw away our national treasure on a losing proposition in the mideast rather than on improving things at home.

The problem is they are borrowing to pay for it, trying to make sure the bill comes due after they are out the door. Want some IOU $s?

 

[Griffin]

Ruh ro :blink:

It's not time to hit the panic button, but it is time for a systems check to make sure it's working, just in case.

 

[wv-girl]

Ruh ro :blink:

It's not time to hit the panic button, but it is time for a systems check to make sure it's working, just in case.

I guess it is time to become a B&H for a while. Geezzz. you would think that the old news wouldn't create this kind of mayhem. But I guess that is how to make the big $.

 

[Griffin]

Now would be an excellent time to >>>>>>>>>PANIC<<<<<< :nuts:.

Were at the 200 dma, we should bounce, otherwise it would be prudent to eat the loss and get out before a move lower.

 

[kaitlinsnana]

Griffin,

If we should go into recession, what's the strategy? Lay low? I'm NOT going to panic. I have several friends who are developing land and building and they're eternally optimistic, but I'm not. If I have a little or a lot, I'll be ok, but I have two sons and a granddaughter, and I worry about the United States they will live in.

It seems to me that as a country, we're doing too many things wrong. I keep thinking, there MUST be a master plan, surely we're not just drifting.

So, back to my original question, what would you do? I'm asking you because of your BIG brain. ...and you know I'm not kidding. I appreciate your analysis and comments.

Gail

Gail

 

[Griffin]

Gail, that Panic comment was absolutely a joke - we are not going to panic, we are going to play the system as best we can and I am confident that when all is said and done, we will come out ahead. I don't say that because I have a Big Brain (I really don't, but thanks for the compliment) - I have yet to see anything that makes me believe that it can't be done. Concerning the recession comment - I think we got confirmation of a double top yesterday - but we are still well within the five year channel - until we go south of that, then I am taking the approach that we are in a short (6 mo's or so) contraction.

Your comment about a master plan really struck a nerve (in a positive way) - IMHO: The situation that we are in now as a country - was predicated by a belief that "GW and the Pennsylvania ave. peddlers" had a plan. Unfortunately, the reality is that they talked a good game, while they hoped the path forward would present itself. That's not entirely true - they had a plan to make themselves very rich, which was exeuted with absolute precision. However, the one man with a plan for the rest of us(Colin Powell) walked out and that's when this whole situation turned into bucket of goo. But it's not broken beyond the point of fixing - this administration is to infelxible to even acknowledge that there is a box to think outside of.

So we wait patiently and make a move here and there as opportunity presents itself, which is what your real estate buddies get. Where not running the country so we can the luxury to wait and see. What happened in Flordia, Cleveland and California was the result of massive overspeculation. The only people that are going to allow themselves to get low balled today are folks in a jam. So the real estate market may drift slightly lower, but eventually the inventory will come down because those folks who are not in a jam, are going to take their properties off the market once the sale point becomes unprofitable - were not there yet. Although, I would much rather stick my money here then in real estate.

Similarily, nothing has changed for us, except the rallies will be shorter more sparse. The difficult part is going to try to walk away with just a little gain on a positive day - were going to have to surpress the urge to make the big kill (i.e. pigs get slaughtered).

Griffin,

If we should go into recession, what's the strategy? Lay low? I'm NOT going to panic. I have several friends who are developing land and building and they're eternally optimistic, but I'm not. If I have a little or a lot, I'll be ok, but I have two sons and a granddaughter, and I worry about the United States they will live in.

It seems to me that as a country, we're doing too many things wrong. I keep thinking, there MUST be a master plan, surely we're not just drifting.

So, back to my original question, what would you do? I'm asking you because of your BIG brain. ...and you know I'm not kidding. I appreciate your analysis and comments.

Gail

 

[Show-me]

I thought he said PICNIC. Now would be a good time to PICNIC. lol I made fried chicken last night.

I'm just goof'n with ya. The end of the world is always near, just not today.

And, good morning and good luck today.

 

[Griffin]

I thought he said PICNIC. Now would be a good time to PICNIC. lol I made fried chicken last night.

I'm just goof'n with ya. The end of the world is always near, just not today.

And, good morning and good luck today.

Hey boo boo, did I say Panic? I had hot dogs for dinner last night.

 

[Barney]

Good morning all. Is it the start of a new day...sorry- reverse that...It is the start of a new day. I checked my panic button yesterday. Seems I should have replaced the batteries during daylight savings time. lol. I'm not going to panic...I'm not going to panic...
For some reason, I am hungry after reading your comments earlier.:laugh:

 

[Show-me]

CNBC is feverishly spinning again. They have some politician calling for big rate cuts and for the Fed to quit messing around. Also, the normal rhetoric about committee's, transparency, blah, blah, blah.

Ford hit a home run today. Come on DCB.

B52 Ben in on the hill today. Stand by.

 

[Griffin]

CNBC is feverishly spinning again. They have some politician calling for big rate cuts and for the Fed to quit messing around. Also, the normal rhetoric about committee's, transparency, blah, blah, blah.

Ford hit a home run today. Come on DCB.

B52 Ben in on the hill today. Stand by.

I've been really sick the past two weeks and I've had to forgo my morning CNBC at the gym. Is Becky being negative? She's a good indicator and although she's not obvious about it, but when the show is blatently spinning things, she will get the slightest hint of sarcasim - it's a good sign if she does the not quite an eyeroll after one of the Q&A sessions.