Griffin Account Talk

[Buffalo_Nickle]

Nothing like a good flow chart for an analytical answer. Good Job,..Thanks

 

[whitemingo]

Thanks Griffin.

Great flow chart.

 

[phillyfed]

I think a decision tree would probably help clarify my strategy.

View attachment 2701

Right now we are in the far left blue diamond waiting to see if the 5 year channel will breakdown - or we will move to 1460.

Another intelligent person from Philadelphia. You summed up my entire thread in one flow chart. You must work in IT as well. It looks like some Digital Algorithm's I learned in beginners Electronics at Drexel University. AND, NOR, OR Gates

 

[fedgolfer]

great job Grif on the past few IFTs... you've really minimized losses and bought in at the best time while only doing a small handful of IFTs.

I have a feeling I'll be following you move for move when the IFT restrictions are put in place. Sh*t, I should just do it now!

 

[fedgolfer]

oh, are you expecting the dollar to rally until xmas/new year... thus avoiding the I fund?

On the flip side, if they cut the FFR and discount rates, like the market action is assuming today... wouldn't that further deteriorate the $... today's dollar index looks like its near a line of reisistance on a big up day for the $.

 

[weatherweenie]

...or we will move to 1460.

We're coming up on 1460. Now what?

 

[ATCJeff]

We're coming up on 1460. Now what?

According to the flow chart, hold the course. At 1490 he'll make a move to the S.

Hope I got that right Grif.

 

[Griffin]

According to the flow chart, hold the course. At 1490 he'll make a move to the S.

Hope I got that right Grif.

You do have it right -

1460 is critical level that we need to keep an eye on - long after the intraday charts are not available to us. 1460 is on decison tree as a node, because it may effect my thinking in the near future, even though I don't intend to act upon it immediately. If resistance at 1460 holds - our chances of slipping into a bear market increase significantly.

 

[Griffin]

Folks - when we hit these nodes, don't jump the gun with an IFT - we need to see how the market behaves. It usually takes several attempts over a couple of days to push through an area of strong resistance, or it may push through quickly on one day only to return the next day.

Be patient - this is the ART of timing.

 

[mamikin]

Folks - when we hit these nodes, don't jump the gun with an IFT - we need to see how the market behaves

These words of wisdom came a little too late for me today ... went 100% to I for tomorrow. I enjoy reading your thread on a daily basis - you share much wisdom. I found the chart you posted yesterday quite helpful and informative.

 

[Griffin]

I made a mistake in my decision tree about where the note should have been. Not a big deal but hopefully this change will add a little clarification.

View attachment 2710

 

[Griffin]

Yesterday I mentioned that we could see the market punch through resistance at 1460 only to revisit it again the next day. That appears to be what the futures are prediciting for this morning. The good news is that we are coming to it from the topside and the downward momentum does not appear strong enough to immediately take us below 1460 at the open.

Things are looking good . We are now in the center blue diamond of my decision tree and it looks like the next move will be through the "no resistance at 1460 green box" on to the right diamond.

 

[airlift]

Thanks Griffin!

 

[Steadygain]

Griffin, I guess I see you as my mentor - the wise sage. The media has largely focused on the subprime mess (and all involved with it) and rising oil costs. From my perspective the most important underlying problem leading to a recession is the continual rising cost of stocks themselves. I am in the game now only because it is the end of the year - and the smart money will want to dress up their portfolios and seasonality is very promising. However - due to the high cost of stocks themselves - and the subsequent TSP Funds - I will take very cautious position in 08.

Do you see the rising costs of stocks as a serious condition??

 

[fedgolfer]

Doesn't Bernanke speak tonight after the bell? Anyone think he'll tank the markets or y'all leaning towards end-of-month window dressing? November will be in the red anyways unless everybody just loses their sanity and we melt up another 80 points on the S&P

So, really, I can see how the big boys will play w/ end of year window dressing, but the month of November is pretty much shot.

I like the 1490'ish area on the S&P like Grif has been saying... think we'll hit it COB today?

 

[Griffin]

Griffin, I guess I see you as my mentor - the wise sage. The media has largely focused on the subprime mess (and all involved with it) and rising oil costs. From my perspective the most important underlying problem leading to a recession is the continual rising cost of stocks themselves. I am in the game now only because it is the end of the year - and the smart money will want to dress up their portfolios and seasonality is very promising. However - due to the high cost of stocks themselves - and the subsequent TSP Funds - I will take very cautious position in 08.

Do you see the rising costs of stocks as a serious condition??

I don't know how comfortable I am with the role of mentor, as I have said before, I see this as a peer workgroup - I enjoy the role of facilitator, but I am one man and one opinion - it's the tireless research of the group that makes this whole thing work.

To the question - we are seeing P/E ratios rise. The aggregate P/E of the S&P 500 was in the 13's a couple of months ago and now it's up around 17. That is borderline starting to get high.

Here's a historical look at P/E ratios that cuts off at 2003 - they continued to slide from there as prices went up but aggregate earnings were stabalizing.

View attachment 2717

I don't see new highs coming and I still think we could be seeing the development of a head and shoulder's pattern long term that may lead to a breakdown of the five year channel. (H&S patterns are typify major reversals)

However, momentum is momentum and we have an oversold rally started that could take us higher.

If I go into a safety move at 1490 - it will be in part because the market is getting over extended which is a broader statement then saying P/E ratio's are high.

 

[Steadygain]

Thank you - and if mentor is the wrong word, don't sweat it - I simply value your input.

 

[kaitlinsnana]

Griffin, I have a mental image of you. Long legs and a slightly oversized head to contain your big brain. Be much better if we posted pictures here so we know who we're talking with. In the meantime, you're a stick figure with piercing eyes and a good heart.

Gail

 

[nnuut]

Gail, I saw a pic of Griffin! Oh well?:laugh:

 

[TerpTrader]

Griffin, I have a mental image of you. Long legs and a slightly oversized head to contain your big brain. Be much better if we posted pictures here so we know who we're talking with...

Like the V for Vendetta guy sais:
"I am not the face behind this mask....nor the muscles beneath it...nor the bones beneath them" - or somethin' like that. :cheesy: