Griffin Account Talk

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Paladin said:
handsome_man.jpg

I don't think he looks that bad...
Click to expand...

Just as I thought, drop-dead sexy with an over-sized head.

Gail
 
We definitely approached 1490 this morning. This puts us in the far right diamond on the decision tree. However, I am not going to make that decision based upon the reaction to the first time we knock on that door. Again a little more patience is warranted. The next decision is to move into the S-fund in anticipation of a broad based rally or to move into the G/F funds.

The indicators are trending up and we are not overbought, so I am going to hold off on making a decision until we get a little more evidence. December is historically a strong month so, erring on the side of risk is reasonable.
 
Despite Today's red, we are seeing 1470 turn to support for two days, after acting as a resistance point during last weeks upswing. A little bit of consolidation is healthy here and as along as 1470 holds going into the close, I suspect we will see a positive reaction tomorrow.
 
The move below 1470 is a cause for concern moving forward. The OSM are having a very nice day and the futures are green as I write this. However, the S&P futures have yet to climb above 1470. It would be nice to open above that level.

We have yet to see 1490 tested in any kind of serious fashion. The single near miss last Friday does not constitute a test of that level and until we get there, we want to ride the recovery.

My favorite indicator's are not looking happy (that's the MACD, RSI and Slo Sto). This has me concerned, but there is plenty of history that shows these indicators do make these kind of leveling off moves during recoveries without a signficant change in the trend. A red flag is raised, but it hasn't started to wave. Hopefully, the OSMs momentum carries through today's market and this red flag is lowered.
 
The ADP Emplyment Change came in strong and so did nonfarm productivity. That gives us good hopes for the emplyment numbers on Friday which frees the market up for a nice rally in expectation of that report.

Factory Orders came in negative and while that can effect jobs, the more important effect is that the Fed will likely see that as a continuing evidence for a rate cut.

It's starting to look like we're going to get green signals flashing through til the Fed meeting all in a month of strong seasonality. This could make for a great holiday season.

A word of caution - a real strong move now could lead to a consolidation instead of a Santa Claus rally. Something to tuck away in the back of your mind, if your like me and going to be on vacation and static through the holidays.

I may jump the gun a little and move to the S-fund today.
 
Griffin said:
The ADP Emplyment Change came in strong and so did nonfarm productivity. That gives us good hopes for the emplyment numbers on Friday which frees the market up for a nice rally in expectation of that report.

Factory Orders came in negative and while that can effect jobs, the more important effect is that the Fed will likely see that as a continuing evidence for a rate cut.

It's starting to look like we're going to get green signals flashing through til the Fed meeting all in a month of strong seasonality. This could make for a great holiday season.

A word of caution - a real strong move now could lead to a consolidation instead of a Santa Claus rally. Something to tuck away in the back of your mind, if your like me and going to be on vacation and static through the holidays.

I may jump the gun a little and move to the S-fund today.
Click to expand...

Im following your moves daily....

Im thinking the same today.....Im 50% in I today. If it doesnt look like we get the hammer on the I -FV (which is hard to tell at Noon), I'll take I profits and Im going 100% to S as that should follow any large move today in catch up. Small Caps are so beaten down, they are due for a pop.

Small Caps are like the 6th speed on the money Porsch. Fast money :D
 
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