goforit's Account Talk

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it looks like we may start positive today so i am going for it and using my last IFT to jump all in 100% I and see if i can time this right. I fund is below the 20$ mark and i told myself when it did that i would give it another chance. no real reason for it just have a gut feeling and been saying it for a couple of days and now that i see the market start out positive according to bloomberg i will just go for it.
 
day late dollar short. i said i was thinking moving to Ifund yesterday before the cut off i didn't and here we are. well hopefully the funds will all end positive and the I fund will keep coming back strong and hard to make up its big losses to off set mine while i was in the S fund through this down time. will be in I fund 100% at close moved before the cut off.
 
looking at bloomberg this morning and it looks like we are going to open up. yeah!!!? it sounds like Japan is trying to stop the rise in the yen so this may help out the markets. we will see.
 
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i don't think the market know's what to do so that is why i haven't posted. i am still I 100% made up some ground but.... April is coming and i think i will bail to G on friday i dont like the way March has ended according to my gut and seasonality. last year i remember that i held on to long and got my butt kicked in April. i will hold G and see if there is any up movement and jump in when there is a down day.
 
just got back from a well needed battery recharge.(ten day vacation) looks like i didn't miss much. didn't look either. i do however like the April seasonality soooo i left everything alone because i have no idea what i was saying or doing and it was better left alone. gained a little, lossed a little, lossed a little, gained a little. imagine that! isn't that the way the stock (TSP) marketl works.
 
now that i have had a chance to catch up on the goings on i am still going 100 I and have my contributions going to 100C. the seasonality says that April is a good month so i am going to hang for awhile and let it play out. the oil at 120+ sucks hopefully it will level out and the big OIL companies can start to drill off shore again. i noticed a few people are saying jump to G and keep your gains. i think that we may have to look at it before thursday or fridays deadline because i feel a gut feeling of minor climbs higher then the small losses. just a gut feeling.
 
sounds like other countries might be trying to buy US dollars? will this make the I fund weaker?? i may jump before deadline today and split 50C50S or just hit the G fund and wait for a small pull back and then move back in. i still feel the I fund could go up but i just havent seen it move like the other two. this also gives me a gut feeling that we could see a slight pullback for a few days. if the dollar gets stronger cause other countries are relying on it this seems to me that the other stocks should also weaken for a few days. Consildation?? seasonality says no to this but....
 
ok so i looked at the clock and noticed i had five minute to move if i was going to so i said screw it and used an IFT moved 90G5C5S left contributions alone still into C. now hope i am right with my gut feeling and i will be back in after few down days which i believe will start soon and last until mid next week but i think it will be small losses each day but not more the 2-3% total after all said and done. just a guess nothing but gut!!
 
we will wait and see how things play out this week and hold tight 90G 5C 5S. if we continue up i will have a little invested. the gov shut down adverted doesn't make a believer out of me. as said by the congressmen "we still have along way to go" and "there can't be an extension of the cap of the credit limit to the debt" still does not sound good. oil prices today seem to be backing off but for how long. the overseas market and japans disasters continueing doesn't seem to bode well for anything except our dollar getting stronger and from the way i understand it this is not good for our stock market. i hope i understand the dollar thing right.
 
i understand that a stronger dollar is good for our economy and that a strong dollar effects the price of oil to the down side as i believe(unless i have this backwards too) but if that is the case the only market a strong dollar (in theory that would benifit) would be the C fund(S&P)right? i have been under the impression that a stong dollar would re-value our stocks and the price per share would drop because the value of the dollar IS stronger( i suppose i have this backwards too). this is why i joined this so i can learn. excuse the mistakes if i have mislead anyone.
 
There have been periods in the past where the market will continue to rally in the face of a stronger dollar and increasing interest rates - it all comes down to corporate profits and P/E valuation ratios. The P/E currently for the SPX is around 15 - a move up to 19 could give the market another 43% run to the upside.
 
goforit said:
i understand that a stronger dollar is good for our economy and that a strong dollar effects the price of oil to the down side as i believe(unless i have this backwards too) but if that is the case the only market a strong dollar (in theory that would benifit) would be the C fund(S&P)right? i have been under the impression that a stong dollar would re-value our stocks and the price per share would drop because the value of the dollar IS stronger( i suppose i have this backwards too). this is why i joined this so i can learn. excuse the mistakes if i have mislead anyone.
Click to expand...

The Norm is (And Not Today)

If Oil prices are going Higher the Dollar Index goes lower.

If Oil prices are going lower the Dollar Index goes Higher.

Today Oil is lower and so far the Dollar Index is also Lower. This is usually not the case.

Oil prices go Higher stock market in general goes lower. This also has not been the case for a little while.

Oil prices go Lower stock market in general goes Higher.

Remember we have the Fed injecting $$$ into the market pumping it. This also is not the Norm.

We all need to watch several things, because all these variables can change in the blink of an eye.

The markets are not normal with the Fed injecting $$$ into it and this cannot go on for ever.
 
thanks guys. good info. i have to also remember as my kids tell me "you need to get with the times dad, that is not how it goes anymore" . this to i should do with the times now and not rely on "the old ways"
 
ok well with fridays down day and now todays day down this could be what i am looking for to jump back in. i am looking for 2-3% consolidation. with today and friday it looks like it will end Cfund- .75-1.25 % drop and the Sfund- 1.25 - 1.75% drop. soooo... heres hoping for one more down day and jump in at a low share price for more shares tomorrow before deadline to get the jump up when the C and S begin the track upwards to finish the month. if i time this right i will stay in for the month because that will be my last IFT. only go back to G if something happens. don't remember May very well but i think historically it is a positive month overall. don't go to the bank on the last statement.
 
goforit said:
ok well with fridays down day and now todays day down this could be what i am looking for to jump back in. i am looking for 2-3% consolidation. with today and friday it looks like it will end Cfund- .75-1.25 % drop and the Sfund- 1.25 - 1.75% drop. soooo... heres hoping for one more down day and jump in at a low share price for more shares tomorrow before deadline to get the jump up when the C and S begin the track upwards to finish the month. if i time this right i will stay in for the month because that will be my last IFT. only go back to G if something happens. don't remember May very well but i think historically it is a positive month overall. don't go to the bank on the last statement.
Click to expand...


waiting right here with you....
1 more ift as well.
 
thanks for the read but gov computor gov filters wont let me look maybe i will look at at home. thanks again for all your help birchtree. we will possibly post again tomorrow.
 
well i went for it. just moved before deadline. 50C 50S i am going to set it and forget it for the remainder of month because the seasonality looks good, unless something shatters the market then i will dive back to G no more IFT so wait and see. i did however get my goal if today ends the way it looks of a 2-3% pulback/consolidation(hopefully the latter). pulled the trigger and going to watch it climb.(???)
 
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