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Yesterdays drop was enough for me to look to buy back into the market once we began to see green again. I'm jumping the gun a little bit mainly because of this morning's strong action. It could be a dead cat bounce but the market has been moving sideways for awhile so I'm expecting higher likelyhood of upward movement. I did move into a safer diversified / S&P 500 heavy allocation of 50%C, 25%S, and 25%I. I considered 100%I but the potiential for a dollar rebound kept me away. Actually the lower dollar is one of the reasons I bought more S&P 500. The lower dollar should help sales to foriegn markets.
 
I went 100% I. I agree, this looks like the no-brainer scenario. I think that if the OSM will follow the USM tommorrow and hopefully have enough momentum to outpace any +FV that might occur today. Best case is the USM is flat to slightly up this afternoon and doesn't trigger a +FV and OSM follows tonight.

The dollar could bounce and the USM could fall this afternoon, but then everyone knows there is risk involved with stocks. I choose to take the risk today.
 
FundSurfer said:
I agree, this looks like the no-brainer scenario. .... hopefully have enough momentum to outpace any +FV that might occur today. Best case is the USM is flat to slightly up this afternoon and doesn't trigger a +FV and OSM follows tonight.

The dollar could bounce and the USM could fall this afternoon, but then everyone knows there is risk involved with stocks. I choose to take the risk today.
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I got brained by the no-brainer... OK, it doesn't look that bad but the NBS sure did not pan out. The market got too hot too fast and that is one of the risks.

I figured when I went for the NBS that it would probably be a one day thing and it would not surprise if markets close red today. We are at top of channels and since this is summer, my plan calls for me to step aside. Hopefully we don't see a lot of red today. If we do, I can hope that the OSM will insulate me a little.

Have a good weekend.

I'll be on the road a lot the next couple weeks so my access will be sporatic.
 
FundSurfer said:
I got brained by the no-brainer... OK, it doesn't look that bad but the NBS sure did not pan out. The market got too hot too fast and that is one of the risks.]

Well I had good company.. I still see it as package gain regardless of todays -FV. Yesterdays gain still gives me a net gain. I'm betting like a lot of others that I respect on the board that Monday will be good for the I fund. GL to all. Have a nice weekend and trip next week.
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went back in the market. I've got crappy access and just decided to jump back in the market with a diverse allocation. No time to do anything but the basics.
 
Wow. Got back today. That was an expensive trip. Oh well. I rode the market down, I'll ride it back up. Hopefully the bleeding is over. I haven't looked at much yet, still unpacking. All I saw was an ugly chart.
 
Welcome back FS, hope it was a good trip.

Don't be talking about our chart like that though. It might be ugly, but if we didn't have it, we'd all have callused hands...........

From drawing in the dirt. ;)
 
FundSurfer said:
Wow. Got back today. That was an expensive trip. Oh well. I rode the market down, I'll ride it back up. Hopefully the bleeding is over. I haven't looked at much yet, still unpacking. All I saw was an ugly chart.
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Turn your back and see what happens! Damnit!:mad:
 
Hey Cuz:

It's been a mean mean week...I should hae jumped out as soon as I felt that little bit of nausea in my gut...but NOT ME...oh well....one of these days I'm gonna learn...looks like WS was the wise one this week and got out before the butt kickin really started....better luck next week...we need an elevator with an UP button...

Later,

FS
 
I'm just staying put till the water becomes a little more clear. Odds are that we will retest the lows. Might be risky to try and time it. I'm guessing a good pop for tommorrow due to new month. Those with cash on the balance shhet for end of July will be looking for some bargins. That pop may be what is triggers some late sellers to bring us to a retest.

I think I'm in for a while since I rode the market down. Maybe I'll get an itchy trigger finger, time will tell. In terms of my plan/system, I would have gotten out July 24 and be getting back in today. If I look at the money that one trade would have saved me, it would have covered the cost of an iphone. Hmmmm.... Oh well. I'll keep telling myself that the time spent fishing with my kids was priceless. (It was...)
 
I know what you mean about having NOT followed your plan. Unlike you, I was not out at a wireless-free lake and have no excuse except greed. My plan called for me to be out on July 19 and back in on August 10, but the 19,20, and 23 seemed safe bets and then emotion said buy and hold. I am -6% since June. So I'm staying in to catch some rebound. Live and learn.

15 years from now I hope I can laugh at how worried I was about what happened last week;)

M.
 
Yeah, you win some, you lose some. The object is just to win more often. That's kind of why I'm just staying in the market. I don't want to make things any worse by making a bad timing call and getting whipsawed. If I had missed some of the fall and was a little ahead, I'd be more risk tolerant. You will look back on last week and smile, probably sooner than you think.
 
I really don't like that we are flirting with the 200 DMA. I was thinking (OK... hoping) there would be some pop today, but I'm guessing too many nerves are rattled and people are waiting for things to sort themselves out before jumping in. I'm still in a diverse allocation of 50%C, 25%S, & 25%I and will stay that way unless it looks like we close below 200 mda.
 
Market seems to be searching for firm footing. I'm not going to try and play these wobbles at this point. I am watching for signs we break down. I'll just enjoy the rollercoaster ride. For now I'm staying put.
 
That last hour was a pretty obvious sign. Hmmmm..... This will get people's attention when they read the Sunday paper. Errr.... or catch up on their blog-hoppin.

We closed below the 200 Day moving average..... We may not be done yet.


Have a nice weekend!
 
FundSurfer said:
That last hour was a pretty obvious sign. Hmmmm..... This will get people's attention when they read the Sunday paper. Errr.... or catch up on their blog-hoppin.

We closed below the 200 Day moving average..... We may not be done yet.


Have a nice weekend!
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Same thing happened last May and June 06.
 
It is really hard to just stay put but the swings are too big and happen too fast to react to. The reaction to the Fed could go either way. Since the Fed announcement would come after our deadline, I would be guessing if I put in a move today. I think I'll watch the reaction and then possibly sell if we get a big rally. If we sell off, I'll just hold since as we saw from Friday to Monday, trying to adjust can cost big.
 
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