FundSurfer account talk

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Show-me said:
Merger and acquisition's seem like the only thing holding it together. ISM today, but no matter what the number the market will rally. Factory Orders missed by half and we finished positive.
Click to expand...

One of these days I'll need someone to explain the "belies logic" philosophy that seem sto work so well for the market, but so poorly for my investing approach..:D

FS
 
Fundsurfer:

I think you're on to something..if only we could peg the market to the way women think, we'd all be millionaires...PS: don't let my wife see this...:D
 
Did you notice the bounce that started at 10:30 am and then was met by selling at 11 am? That is why I'll stay on the sidelines a while longer.
 
Oh well...bit the bullet and chanced 20S tomorrow...not too exposed...I hope I make a few sheckles...

If I don't you, 12%, and Nnut's all warned me..

Thanks,

FS
 
We seem to be at the bottom of short term channels for C&S with I being a little less clear because of dollar movement. If we go lower we are in for a much bigger correction. I'm thinking we don't go lower and that this is a good buy for C&S. I may wait a day to buy some I or just diversify into cs&i. If the markets rally toward the end of the day that could spark an OSM rally. C-fund has been a strong gainer and tends to be a little safer (less volitile) than S&Iso I'm probably going to weight more there. I'm moving into stocks just haven't settled on an allocation yet. Maybe 40 C, 35 S, 25 I....
 
50C, 40S, 10I. Decided on lower exposure to I. The dollar may bounce which would detract from potiential I-fund gains.
 
Well the markets have continued down and I'm having a little bit of buyers remorse. I'm still hopeful that markets will stabilize and have the beginnings of a move up toward close. As of right now the C-fund is going below the short term channel I've got drawn and s-fund is starting to do the same. If this continues it could get ugly.

Come on baby..... bounce.....
 
These charts look ugly. We have gone below channels. Tough to predict going forward. Since it is summer, I'm leaning toward going back to G-fund to await a more predictable pattern.
 
US dollar has gone up over 1% in the last couple days which is probably too much too fast. Dollar is due to slide back a little.

CS&I are all due a bounce at least. Rebound or not yet to be seen. C&S have gone below channels to first support levels. Looks to be bouncing this morning which is good but not a very convincing bounce. Definitely not out of the woods yet. Might be that the big boys want to wait till a Monday to jump in and avoid being in the market over the weekend.

I'm not thinking of bailing out of stocks at this point. I might want to change my ratios.
 
Staying put. I'm not convinced the Dollar movement has stabilized yet. I may spread out to I-fund on Monday. Hope it does pop for all those moving into it.
 
I'm leaning toward staying put...

I think there will be a retest but can we catch it? I'm behind my goals so far this year primarily because I was very agressive and tried to catch too many bounces. I ended up missing moves because the bounces occured but they were intra-day and our TSP timing didn't allow us to catch them.

Right now I think we are in general still headed up. There very well might be a retest. Since it is summer I'm quick to exit, but I'll wait for the market to show red rather than try to anticipate.

We are below short term channels (monthly time frame) but very high in intermediate term channels (1-2 year time frame).

I'll likely jump to I-fund if C&S can go green in a substantial fashion, else I'll just stay in C&S for the time being. The FV's make timing the I-fund much more risky in the current rollercoaster environment.
 
Nice take FS. I'm convinced we're close enough to the bottom to weather a little risk as we test resistance on the way up. I'll be gradually increasing my I-fund holdings over the next couple days to minimize FV impacts.
c855
 
I hear you FundSurfer. I got blasted in Feb back to a negative position...so I certainly understand the aggressive stance in playing catch up...I will need to be more cognizant of what others do every day as we move through the summer. Right now I'm 50 I, 50 G....following 12% in a limited fashion.

Hope tomoorw is good to you..

FS
 
I'm moving some money into the I-fund just because it is over due. The dollar could drop back a little and the OSM could react well to today's move forward. I'm worried that we could keep going forward and trigger a +fv today. If that happens, I'd expect Barclay's to GUESS too high and screw anyone moving into I-fund. That's probably why I did not move more. No reason to believe we are out of the woods yet. We've had a retest and bounced again. This is a very nervous market. Any news could sway big in either direction.
 
I bailed out of stocks to 50% G and 50% F.

Stocks got a very nice pop today probably partially because of options expiration. History (tips hat to Tom and Gilligan) tells us of a high likelyhood of red day on Monday following. I'm thinking that history will repeat itself becaus others will have picked up on this notion as well and will try to take advantage. This will cause a history repeat type action. This can go wrong when people notice that others are taking advantage (big boys) and try to take advantage of those taking advantage... sound convoluted but that's how the stock market works. The key is to notice trends and then not use them when they become too obvious. Right now I think this particular trend has been noticed but not too much yet... yep, that's a guess on my part.

I'm expecting shorts to start coming out. The question is will the big boys try to squeeze them or let them go a little. This is a nervous market and thus joe six pack is paying a little more attention than normal. The big boys tend to play less games in this kind of atmosphere because they too can get run over by a stampede. I'm guessing the big boys don't play any games and let the scenario play out. They may even join the shorts to try and take advantage of the same. Anyway all this to say I think we'll have another smaller pullback and another bounce. If Monday starts red, I'll probably by back in on Monday.
 
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