FogSailing's Account Talk

[Mcqlives]

And transports actually went negative at one point. Not good indicators for this bull to be sustained.

 

[FogSailing]

That is crazy strange Mcglives. RUT and DWCPF are hitting at +.6 as I write this. Appreciate you comment. I haven't been looking at Wilshire for a while.

FS

 

[ravensfan]

Good analysis FS. I'm thinking bear trap as well...

 

[JamesE]

Call me crazy, but I don't see anything bearish about that chart. I think 15% is asking way too much right now.

 

[FogSailing]

Call me crazy, but I don't see anything bearish about that chart. I think 15% is asking way too much right now.

The graphic just sets the range. Not predicting it goes there, but it sets the probable parameters. Also, I expect the downside to unfold over time, not a big one off event.

I see this more as a "trend" change. I still see us in a bull market.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Anybody feeling that EUPHORIA today. I think we've seen this movie before..



FS

 

[FogSailing]

If SPX breaks under 2444, potential for bounce at 2439 else 2416 is likely next pivot. We'll watch and see how things go today.

FS

 

[ravensfan]

If SPX breaks under 2444, potential for bounce at 2439 else 2416 is likely next pivot. We'll watch and see how things go today. FS

S&P closed at 2437.03. Your thoughts???

 

[FogSailing]

Raven: At this moment Yen is strengthening and dollar is weakening and CL appears to be headed for more of a pullback. Gold looks like it has hit a bottom and could be ready to go positive, generally works opposite equities. My guess is that SPX will be downward (chop suey) until 2416 or thereabouts, at least for this week. BUT that and $2.00 will get you a Starbucks coffee..

FS

 

[ravensfan]

Thanks for your thoughts FS. Good point on Gold working opposite of equities. The talking heads at FBN were blaming the bulk of today's losses on oil, so that is another area to watch. I have been very surprised at the slow, steady climb equities have made this month as seasonality puts June in the barely positive to negative column. Of course, there are still 10 days left in the month and a lot could happen to bring prices back down, so I'll be looking for a jump in point next week to get set up for July.

As for $2.00 at Starbucks, when was the last time you went to Starbucks? Two bucks won't even get you in the door...LOL

 

[FogSailing]

As you see, my taste in coffee more closely resembles QuikTrip. I'm still thinking 2416-2420 is the next pivot area for a big decision. Bears may be getting ready to feast on the complacent..



FS

 

[FogSailing]

My take on today is that everyone is gone short so the market is getting ready to reciprocate with its own idea. Oil has been taking such a beating that I wouldn't be surprised with DCB tomorrow and SPX and CL get the bounce. Still think we have more downside facing us. Been too lazy to check RSI, MACD, TRIN, and Sto. Those could change my thinking.

 

[Tsunami]

I hope posting pics with snow in them help keeps you cool. I see highs over 110 degrees in the forecast for another week for you!
Over here in the high desert we're supposed to peak at 103 tomorrow, just 4 degrees below the hottest day ever here. Being over 5000' elevation helps a lot.

Regarding those indicators, pick any index and I see a series of higher highs in stocks and lower highs in the indicators. Not a good recipe for further gains much longer...

$DWCPF - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

 

[FogSailing]

117 outside in the patio this afternoon TS. I have the AC guy coming over in the am. Our system seems to be a bit low on Freon/coolant. Didn't notice until the temp hit 112. Had coffee on the patio with my wife this morning at 6am - temp 86 degrees. We enjoyed coffee until about 7:30am. Yesterday we were 119. Tomorrow we cool down to 114. Be glad when we get back to under 110 next week...BUT ITS A DRY HEAT.. LOL.

Looking at tomorrow..OIL and GOLD had a bit of a bounce and the Yen pulled back a tad. Read an opinion that RUT is expected to pull back through 7/4. Plus review what TS posted below. However, also talk thay Wall Street gets end-of-quarter bonus and they want the market in positive territory and will manipulate through buy backs. That indicates to me that the fundamentals are weak and we will be\are ripe for a pullback. Will artificial manipulation thru buy backs will keep the market from tanking in June or is that "fuzzy logic"? If true, expect at least one big up day to assure those guys get their bonuses. TRUTH IS "ONLY THE SHADOW KNOWS'.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Oil is up a tad. Not expecting that to hold. US Dollar appears to be moving sideways and perhaps downwards. Upside pivot is 97.88, Downside pivot is 93.80 I believe.Will be keeping an eye on where dollar heads to. Bonds look like they are trying to embed. Here's a graph:





FS

 

[FogSailing]

SPX has been range bound since June 2nd. WE APPEAR TO BE SITTING RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THAT RANGE RIGHT NOW. So perhaps June has just been consolidation.

Lots of bears expecting a big pullback that hasn't happened yet. Upside for SPX is 2470-2500. It has to get above 2459 for that scenario to come into play.

Still think Oil will pullback further..possibly to 37. Gold in currently rallying. Bonds look like they are troubled about direction.

Tricky place to be right now. No idea if we break out or break down. I think the bots are looking at how they can play this to maximize returns for their masters.

FS

FS

 

[ravensfan]

Thanks for your insight FS! Always appreciated.

 

[FogSailing]

SPX has been range bound since June 2nd. WE APPEAR TO BE SITTING RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THAT RANGE RIGHT NOW. So perhaps June has just been consolidation.

Lots of bears expecting a big pullback that hasn't happened yet. Upside for SPX is 2470-2500. It has to get above 2459 for that scenario to come into play.

Still think Oil will pullback further..possibly to 37. Gold in currently rallying. Bonds look like they are troubled about direction.

Tricky place to be right now. No idea if we break out or break down. I think the bots are looking at how they can play this to maximize returns for their masters.

FS

FS

I'm staying with this analysis as we move into Monday. This is the week the market will make a move upward if it's meant to be. The reasons for: Bonuses are paid out at the end of the quarter so expect some upside. The reasons against..possible decline in oil and bonds...My guess is that we move to the 2470 area before we pull back. If we break below 2419, SPX goes down; above 2454 we go up.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Today appears to be a TELL Day. The market surged then pulled back. We did not reach or exceed 2454. The SPX continues to ride along the top of the BB. While there was a lot of GREEN on the Board today, not a lot positive traction. Also I heard this afternoon that Senator Susan Collins from Maine has said she will VOTE NO on AHCA. I expect others on the fence to join her in the next day or two. To me that spells pullback. Here's a picture of SPX action.



FS

 

[ravensfan]

Thanks FS. Best to be on the sidelines if this healthcare vote goes tango uniform...