FogSailing's Account Talk

[burrocrat]

fog, you have to take shield maiden to see wonder woman. trust me.

 

[jkenjohnson]

I have been a member of NARFE for almost 20 years. I can tell you I am worried about the budget attacks on our retirements and benefits. If you are not a member, I strongly recommend you consider joining. NARFE does an excellent job of fighting for federal employees and retirees. Here's a link to NARFE.

Protect Your Earned COLA

https://www.votervoice.net/Shares/BOWyUAarAC44MAqn-wQ7FAA

FS

Yeah thats a bunch of ****


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[FogSailing]

Here's a few graphs on SPX, Oil, and Gold to put in the thinking tank..



FS

 

[FogSailing]

The dollar has been pulling back for a while. The question is "Does it bounce, or is it watch out below?"



FS

 

[FogSailing]

Is the turn window for the Dollar later this week, Thursday/Friday. Interesting considering the events on Thursday: ECB, Comey & UK elections. There is still an expectation that SPX "could" hit 2441 before the next big downturn. This week appears to be mild contraction - sideways so far. If UK stays with with PM May and Comey testimony is placid, market could take off. So...perhaps another reversal is before us? Just thinking out loud..always a danger.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

My question on the Dollars is still open although Yen is strengthening. Will ECB tighten? Tomorrow Comey and UK Election.. Today's hearing: placid and quiet. If SPX bounces, it heads to 2446. If if doesn't, we're looking at a downside potential for 2381 pivot. Here's an SPX chart.



FS

 

[ravensfan]

Hmm 2381. Now that's a dip I would buy...

 

[FogSailing]

As of the close, SPX stays above 2416 which was my "get out of Dodge number". TRANS is up so, who knows. Right now the market is staying bullish.

Was today a head fake? The market always surprises but I wasn't expecting it to take off for pivot 2449 (and close shows a chance of it heading there with a positive DIV). But UP, based on what? Housing sales are down, Oil down, nothing on healthcare, taxes, infrastructure, etc. From my perspective, mixed signals....Trend says BULL, Fundamentals say "CONFUSED".

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Markets are volatile today. Futures just went Red. Oil appears to be in a continued decline, Yen is up, Dollar down, Gold down. Comey ready to testify and UK Elections...Here's a chart on oil:



FS

 

[FogSailing]

Attaching article from McClellan. Worth a look. The graphic is mind boggling.

The Unexplainable 4-Year Rerun - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Here's a snapshot of major indices as we head into Monday..Dollar still in decline, SPX, IND, DJI, NYA are overbought, Gold looks ready to bounce. My guess is the market is ready for a trend change but the markets love to surprise. Need to check TRIN in the am to see where it is.



FS

 

[FogSailing]

SPX is 2439 as I write this. Don't really expect to see it move beyond 2447 at this time. I think the downside risk is high. For tomorrow we only care about the surprises, as in bigger hike, or no hike at all. I think the probability is that we get the rate hike. The fact that the the dollar and gold are right at break out/down levels, and stalled, tells you it’s going to be a roller coaster.

FS

 

[nasa1974]

SPX is 2439 as I write this. Don't really expect to see it move beyond 2447 at this time. I think the downside risk is high. For tomorrow we only care about the surprises, as in bigger hike, or no hike at all. I think the probability is that we get the rate hike. The fact that the the dollar and gold are right at break out/down levels, and stalled, tells you it’s going to be a roller coaster.

FS

Might be a good day to move some shares around.

 

[FogSailing]

Looks like 2418 is the low for the day. SPX seems to be wanting to hold above 2425. I did see that the Yen has decided to strengthen and PM's are heading south. The market is taking it's own sweet time to unwind. There must still be a lot of momentum from previous months. I think we are due a 5% correction. But, the way things appear, I'd be surprised to see a 3% pullback. Amoeba had said aaii is neutral and that is correct. Perhaps big players are just shifting their portfolios right now. Just watching this market do a roller coaster this week.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Some very good people are expecting an ATH in SPX. That said, here'some charts from Kimble that shows where were are.





FS

 

[Mcqlives]

I am not a huge Elliott wave fan but here is a quote from today's safehaven.com analysis of the dow which supports your take:

Short term Dow Jones Elliott Wave view suggests the rally from 4/19 low is unfolding as a diagonal Elliott Wave structure where Minor wave 1 ended at 21010 (4/26), Minor wave 2 ended at 20474 (5/18), Minor wave 3 ended at 21270 (6/8), and Minor wave 4 ended at 21081 (6/8). Minor wave 5 is in progress and subdivided into a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from 6/8 low, Minute wave ((a)) is expected to complete at 21360 – 21404. Index should then pullback in Minute wave ((b)) to correct cycle from 6/8 low before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback. Buyers should appear once Minute wave ((b)) pullback is over in 3, 7, or 11 swing.

 

[FogSailing]

Hi Mcglives. It's more of a public interest notification than anything else. I follow Elliott wave but not for "predicting", more about info on what happened. The trend is up and has been up. This week was chop suey and who knows about next week. Next week is typically a tough week for the markets but the bots are in control so I'll watch what they do. All the best.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

From Tony Caldaro: ..."some important levels to watch. For a breakout to continue the uptrend SPX must exceed pivots at 2444 and 2446. For a breakdown, to join the NDX/NAZ, and potentially enter a downtrend SPX 2416 and 2406." Here's a graphic of what some of the analysts are thinking.



FS

 

[FogSailing]

But for the days when we had more IFTs. So we had chop suey last week. Can't say I'm surprised by today's action. Expect SPX to close at 2452 today. I think it's a bull trap myself. It has been a long time since we had a correction. Expecting turnaround Tuesday to be a pullback of some kind. Even if the correction was like that of of late 2015 into early 2016, which was a 15% drop, that would take the S&P 500 back to its longer term upward trend line which is around the 2100 level. Here's a graphic:



FS

 

[Mcqlives]

Look at the w4500 this morning. Down 2% at the open and been there since.