FogSailing's Account Talk

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Comment from a TA I follow:

It’s been a losing battle to fight the fed. Every possible major correction wave (over the last 2 months) has been interrupted by a central banker. They obviously think the longer they keep this going eventually things will get better, if not and they create a bubble to sp 2500 and have a 40 percent correction to SPX 1500 is better then a correction to 1200 from this level. From the Popeye cartoon , wimpy, I’d gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today appears to be the motto. Europe pulled out the bazoka last month, yellen yesterday , next on deck is Japan. And China. Then rotate to Europe and Yellen. All in together to create a bubble. PE values up, earnings estimates down, revenue projections down. But the wine flows and they continue to drink. So, we have been in a range of 1810 to 2134. Not a bear market till 1810 broken. Not a bull until 2134 broken. Just bankers keeping things idle. We all know the negatives around the world, but unless reality sets in, I feel bankers will win and continue to jack it up to bubble levels. Betting against them is a losing bet. Lucy has always pulled the football from Charlie Brown. Happens every time. Until 1810 is broken, I will give them the benefit of the doubt that we move higher the rest of the year. The last 2 months have been a bear trap. The next 2 months could be a bull trap but with the CBs taking lead; and with the Fed alluding to new possible QE, I see things moving up and sideways for a time.
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I'm thinking of jumping back in...hope this isn't a big mistake.

FS
 
Been thinking the same thing as I would like to be invested going into April. So do we jump in today or hope for a better price tomorrow.:thinking:
 
This is the sloppy seconds "late to the game crowd" pushing around today's price action, but failing to burn an EoM IFT to get back in, that's gonna leave you in an awkward setup for April.

I lost out on a 4.72% gain in the first 4 days of March and that still pisses me off...
 
JTH said:
This is the sloppy seconds "late to the game crowd" pushing around today's price action, but failing to burn an EoM IFT to get back in, that's gonna leave you in an awkward setup for April.

I lost out on a 4.72% gain in the first 4 days of March and that still pisses me off...
Click to expand...

Going back to your post # 8733, you said the following. "Thursday will close down, but SPX will close the quarter up for the year". You have been spot on in the month of March, so I am banking on it happening one more time. If we are down tomorrow I will submit an IFT so I am invested going into the month of April. Yes, it's sloppy seconds, but just trying to get a better price.
 
Guys...Appreciate all your thoughts. I cancelled my IFT in TSP at the last moment...waiting for tomorrow to see how the world churns...

FS
 
FogSailing said:
Guys...Appreciate all your thoughts. I cancelled my IFT in TSP at the last moment...waiting for tomorrow to see how the world churns...

FS
Click to expand...

Good call (from my perspective under your conditions) I'd rather wait and see if we'll get an EoM selloff before deciding to burn the last IFT.
 
ravensfan said:
Ok you fargin bastiges...you ice holes...What movie was that from? :thinking:
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Johnny Dangerously! An absolute classic! Michael Keaton, as Johnny, talking to the leading lady... "You got style! you got class! You got those! I like those on a woman!" ;)
 
But seriously, jumping in tomorrow, 1 April, effective COB, puts feet on the deck Monday morning... and we don't get the Ark report until then!
 
One of the TA's I follow made a very interesting observation yesterday. This is just FYI:

"The CB’s have created this monster that we now call the markets and the primary mandate is to keep them artificially inflated to 1. Create an “artificial” wealth effect, 2. Provide the cash required for corporations to buy back their stock to keep the share price elevated.

If indeed, and I believe this to be the case, the smart money has been net sellers into this rally, this explains a lot of what we’re seeing. Namely, that this is an opportunity for them to distribute to the “uninformed money” at or near the market top. It always happens this way.

Now, we know – or should know – that moves possess momentum, and that this momentum can take prices higher as the fuel that caused rising prices – volume – dissipates. If you look at this rally from SP 1891, it has been on below average & ever decreasing volume. This in itself is a warning. Bear Market rallies exist to entice and delude the greatest number of investors that “happy days” are here again and that the bull market has resumed, so get on board and buy, buy, buy. At this point, the party ends and the crash ensues, trapping those suckered in at the false top. Hell, I’ve even seen Bear Market rallies take out previous “all time highs” by just a but “confirming” that a bull market has resumed, only to roll over, crash and burn to new lows.

The thing that’s different this time around is the coordinated “attack patterns” exhibited by the CB’s to inject cash, confuse and jawbone the markets higher. The canary in the mine though has been the exodus of the “smart money” from the rally. Now you know, as well as I, that with the vast financial fire power that the CB’s possess, they can keep the markets elevated for a long, long time. At some point though, it will all come to a cataclysmic end. The problem is that we just can’t say when.

I think that this new variable, the actions of the CB’s, is confounding not only EW analysts, but technical analysts too. Throw in the fact that fundamentals don’t work well either given the CB interference and you get even more confusion. Finally, add to this the “Rise of the Machines”, and you get a situation where what used to work doesn’t any more, or at least it doesn’t work as well as it used to.

The CB’s, particularly the FED have lost their way and only a violent reset will get us back on course to health markets again. In the mean time, stay flexible/nimble and trade what you see."

FS
 
Well after today's rally continuation....all I can is ....We got them right where they want us !:D:D:D

FS
 
Whipsaw said:
Johnny Dangerously! An absolute classic! Michael Keaton, as Johnny, talking to the leading lady... "You got style! you got class! You got those! I like those on a woman!" ;)
Click to expand...

Thanks Whipsaw! It's all coming back to me now...Another senior moment resolved. Yep Johnny Dangerously, that was a classic...
 
WS:: From his posts the last 2 days it sounds like Burro's discovered golf (in North Dakota in the winter)...I think he may have a hard time siting the white golf ball in the snow....so the Ark report may be a little delayed..: D:D:D

FS
 
FogSailing said:
WS:: From his posts the last 2 days it sounds like Burro's discovered golf (in North Dakota in the winter)...I think he may have a hard time siting the white golf ball in the snow....so the Ark report may be a little delayed..: D:D:D

FS
Click to expand...

close, but it's more like golf discovered me, there was a disturbance in the force, whooompf! and then there it was plain as day, i am destined to be a golfer. i know enough about life to never tempt the fates when they call to you like that, just walk the path in front of you. so i am going to be a golfer, and a good one, i can tell, the stars aligned, you could almost hear them click into place like the tumblers on some giant cosmic lock. i don't expect much trouble seeing the balls, i can feel them, they speak to me, like we are a pair, symbiosis, "hit me!" they practically scream.

i will give an initial review of the club sets that found their way into my possession elsewhere, and we won't have a chance to take them out for a real trial for a few weeks, but i am already learning lots about golf related stuff. i just couldn't resist taking a few test swings with the 6-iron and so today i get a lesson in divot repair. unfortunately this divot is in the ceiling of our apartment, but it still applies i think. so we are going this morning to menard's for a drywall repair kit and some paint to try to fool the landlord into giving me my deposit back when we move out. the cleanup from the damage was easy, i just sprayed some bacon flavored cooking oil on the carpet and chunks then invinted my chubby neighbor down the hall to come over and check out our new clubs. of course she brought her annoying little foo foo dog along, who apparently loves bacon, no muss no fuss, didn't even have to get the vacuum out, very thorough, thought she wasn't going to stop until she ate the carpet too.

may the fores be with you.
 
Burro...I am really happy for you Golf Whisperer. :D Like I said...golf may always have some level of frustration but it is one of the best and enjoyable activities I know. I won't miss playing once a week no matter the weather (except snow). I don't have that secret golf ball GPS signal tracker that it sounds like you possess...unfortunately I haven't been able to acquire one of those yet...so the ball retailers make a small mint off of me...Do you watch the Gold ...er Golf Channel...Once that begins...then it's Feherty and the daily clinics and then you know you're hooked...ENJOY!!!

FS
 
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