Fedgolfer's Account Talk

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It's becoming a crowded trade indeed.

I love the Ichimoku! With Birch's Mindy Lou being Tonkinese, I wonder if she reads the Ichi Clouds.
 
fedgolfer said:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UDN&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p76866793252

more TA to prove the $ carry trade. The Ichimoku clouds may indicate the tipping point before the dollar actually reverses for the long term. Probably something to keep an eye on... will probably coincide when the Fed begins to raise rates. Price has been consistently above the cloud since May.
Click to expand...

Great analysis. The Japanese always have cool stuff that is hard to pronounce. As I understand it, some US traders are using these clouds. We see a bearish divergence on the UDN MACD and RSI, so we know the roll is coming -just when is the question. Nice visual to keep track.
 
... I'd be interested to see the historical perspective on the yen carry trade over the long haul with ichimokus. If Japan, as the world's second largest economy, had a long drawn out carry trade, I'm sure the US can have a long drawn out one too... perhaps longer than most think is rational. IMHO, bearish dollar trade is almost a guarantee through the new year and 1st QTR and maybe even 2nd QTR 2010. When it does reverse, it will probably be pretty volatile... Rubini was talking recently about it, but he's been proven to be an academic and not a real world trader.
 
Bulls have waited a long time for this technical picture to replay itself. As in July, embedded stochastics in the QQQQs & transports -- most importantly, UDN well within its measured bull move. Unless we ramp up significantly post-IFT deadline, it doesn't look like a short/intermdiate term top will come COB today. Bollingers are widening, and charts indicate shorts are piling in and not recognizing the embedded stochastics... that's free fuel for the bull rocket. Even once the candlesticks pierce the upper bollinger, probabilities are, are that the main indices will keep hugging the upper bollinger is it ascends. Only question is whether or not to try and time a quick revisit of the breakout line, but intraday patterns wouldn't define themselves until well after the IFT deadline.

Oh well, heading to Morton's for lunch, hey shorts... thanks for buying.

Holding.
 
So many indicators, charts, analysis to consider...

I'll hold for now (w/ one more IFT to buy in this month) ;)
 
$tran showing a possible triple top... but headroom on the bollinger's and ppo. Will keep an eye on that closely in the short term.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p84374682472

Financials struggling a bit, but their morning breakout and subsequent retest of that breakout line in the afernoon may serve as breakout confirmation in the financials... 20 day moving average starting to tilt south in XLF, crossed under the 50 dma, and if it can't get to a new high -- not good. 20 crossed the 50 dma in $tran too, and looks like it may occur in the QQQQs. Cumulatively, this could start the arguement for a downward 50 dma and a potential bearish cross... potentially, but not yet.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=xlf&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p84374682472

But, most of the other indicators look like they're busting to new levels.

Today was quite a pop for equities and UDN is still not touching the upper trendline in its measured bull move... getting pretty close though.
 
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coolhand said:
Thanks for the analysis Fedgolfer. Always look forward to your thoughts! :)
Click to expand...

No prob. Looking at the intraday charts this AM, doesn't it feel like markets are waiting for the financials to catch a bid? If they do, i'm sure we'll see some buying across the board... and unfortuantely the exact opposite if it falls below support. The strength in XOM/oil feels good this AM, but has me wondering since the previous swing high, it was the last to fall out of bed. All in all though, probably just profit taking after a breakout day.

UDN gapped down big this AM, which may be a good thing considering we're only seeing minimal profit taking at this point. If the bearish dollar trade catches a bid, there's nothing but headroom in the bollingers on the 15 & 30 minute intraday candlesticks. But as usual we won't see the real direction until after the IFT deadline. Man, i'd take a 4pm IFT deadline over an extra IFT... both would be a dream come true.
 
fedgolfer said:
No prob. Looking at the intraday charts this AM, doesn't it feel like markets are waiting for the financials to catch a bid? If they do, i'm sure we'll see some buying across the board... and unfortuantely the exact opposite if it falls below support. The strength in XOM/oil feels good this AM, but has me wondering since the previous swing high, it was the last to fall out of bed. All in all though, probably just profit taking after a breakout day.

UDN gapped down big this AM, which may be a good thing considering we're only seeing minimal profit taking at this point. If the bearish dollar trade catches a bid, there's nothing but headroom in the bollingers on the 15 & 30 minute intraday candlesticks. But as usual we won't see the real direction until after the IFT deadline. Man, i'd take a 4pm IFT deadline over an extra IFT... both would be a dream come true.
Click to expand...

10:45 15-min candlesticks showing support and/or reversal on the UDN, QQQQs, and maybe financials. Hoping it holds and plays itself out again. What is it about that 10:30 to 11AM timeframe? Seems to happen a lot.
 
fedgolfer said:
Man, i'd take a 4pm IFT deadline over an extra IFT... both would be a dream come true.
Click to expand...

The goobermint Goobers on the Board knew EXACTLY what we DIDNT need. :suspicious:

To go from unlimited IFTs to two, is typical Fed thinking - one extreme to the other. Bah.
 
FAB1 said:
The goobermint Goobers on the Board knew EXACTLY what we DIDNT need. :suspicious:

To go from unlimited IFTs to two, is typical Fed thinking - one extreme to the other. Bah.
Click to expand...

Hey, watch the Fed bashing... I'm one. We're not all marching ants :)
 
They as a liberal dogma are only trying to protect us from ourselves. I don't need their protection but many do - so I make the sacrifice regardless.
 
Birchtree said:
They as a liberal dogma are only trying to protect us from ourselves. I don't need their protection but many do - so I make the sacrifice regardless.
Click to expand...

Hey, watch the liberal bashing too. I'm liberal in some regards. Finance not being one though. Just put it this way, I wouldn't go to Amsterdamm for the museums and tulips :0
 
No, they are not trying to liberal dogma and protect us.

They are just cheap and don't want us to move our money around because they want to hold our float.

If they were simply into control we would still only have G and S and nothing else because "I" would be considered unAmerican (that was the old thinking years ago). If they were dogmatic liberal, we would have some odd EFT we would have to put our money in that was enviromentally friendly, pro choice, lots of government bonds and the suchlike. TSP is not dogmatic on either side of the spectrum, they just got dinged on the "I" exchange rate game they were playing and they didn't like it.
 
fedgolfer said:
But feel free to bash the TSP Board in this thread though... they truly are a gaggle of clowns.
Click to expand...

LOL! :D:D

If I was a high-up & involved in the policy-making, would call myself a "Fed"

However by Eastern Kentuckian estimations I am definitely one. :toung:
 
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